The Case Against Jack Morris

Is Jack Morris a great pitcher?  His 254-186 record is pretty similar to Hall of Famers Bob Gibson (251-174), Red Faber (254-213), Vic Willis (249-205), and Herb Pennock (240-162).  Of the four 20th century pitchers who have won at least 250 games and not been elected to the Hall, Morris has the best winning percentage (.577), easily better than Bert Blyleven’s (.534), Jim Kaat’s (.544), and Tommy John’s (.555).  That’s awesome.  When you look at just win-loss record, Morris is surrounded by Hall of Famers. 

This leads into my next question:  Is a pitcher’s win-loss record a logical way to evaluate pitchers?  No, I can’t see that it is.  Baseball is a team game.  Teams win games, not pitchers.  A pitcher could pitch 12 perfect innings – no runs, no hits, no walks, no hitter getting on base whatsoever – and still lose the game if his offense does not score and he gives up one run in the 13th (this actually happened to Harvey Haddix in 1959).  A pitcher could give up 6 runs in the first inning and still get the win if his team’s offense has an amazing game.  A pitcher could pitch 8 innings of scoreless ball, leave the game with the lead, and then not get the win because his bullpen blows it (this has happened to Johan Santana 6 times this season.  Not the 8 innings of scoreless ball, but the Mets’ bullpen blowing a potential W for Santana 6 times.  Sucks for him).

To me, a pitcher’s job is pretty simple:  prevent the other team from scoring.  The offense’s job is to score runs.  A pitcher’s won-loss record pretends that the pitcher is solely responsible for both runs allowed and runs scored.  How does that make sense?  Pitchers’ win-loss records are a poor reflection of a pitcher’s true value, especially if the pitcher is on a great offensive team or a terrible offensive team.

Back to Morris.  Great win-loss record, but win-loss records are overrated.  His ERA, a much better statistic for pitchers since it has nothing to do with offense, is 3.90.  If Morris is elected, he would have the worst ERA for any pitcher in the Hall.  In the context of the league and parks that Morris pitched in, his ERA was only 5% better than average.  By comparison, Blyleven’s ERA was 18% better than average over his career, even though he pitched over a thousand more innings than Morris.  Kaat was 7% better.  John was 10% better.  Dennis Martinez, who has about as much chance of making the Hall of Fame as I do, was 6% better than average pitching 175 more innings than Morris.  That doesn’t seem like greatness to me.

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