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Eight is Too Much: NFC Wild Card Chase Starting to Cull the Herd

Mark MyersAnalyst IDecember 12, 2007

IconAn amazing thing happened in Week 14: teams were actually eliminated from playoff contention in the NFC.

Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco have all finally been mathematically excised from the hunt. And even though New Orleans has an outside chance of catching the Bucs, the divisions have been pretty much locked up.

What we're left with is nine teams looking to claim two wild-card berths.

To wade through this mess, the first thing to do is forget about Carolina. They still have a 0.15 percent chance of making the postseason. But it would be a waste of bandwidth to discuss the possibility any further.

So here are the  best- and worst-case scenarios in Week 15 for each of the remaining eight squads:

 

NY Giants

Best Scenario (100%) - Win or New Orleans and Minnesota both lose.

Worst Scenario (93.1%) - Loss plus wins by New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.

 

Washington

Best Scenario (41.5%) - Win plus wins by Arizona, Tampa Bay, San Diego, and Chicago.

The Redskins can also get tie-breaker help with victories by Seattle, Cincinnati, and the Jets.

Worst Scenario (2.3%) - Opposite of above outcomes.

Icon

 

Philadelphia 

Best Scenario (15.7%) - Win plus losses by Washington, Minnesota, and Arizona.

Worst Scenario (0.0%) - Loss plus wins by Washington and Minnesota.

 

Minnesota

Best Scenario (78.3%) - Win plus losses by Arizona, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Washington.

Worst Scenario (15.5%) - Opposite of above outcomes.

 

Detroit 

Best Scenario (29.4%) - Win plus losses by Arizona, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota.

Worst Scenario (0.0%) - Wins by Washington and Minnesota (regardless of whether or not the Lions win).

 

Chicago 

Best Scenario (8.5%) - Win plus losses by Arizona, Washington, and Minnesota.

Worst Scenario (0.0%) - Loss.

 

 

IconNew Orleans

Best Scenario (26.8%) - Win plus losses by Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota.

(The loss by the Buccaneers in this scenario keeps open the slim possibility that the Saints could win their division.)

Worst Scenario (0.0%) - Loss plus Minnesota win.

 

Arizona

Best Scenario (68.5%) - Win plus losses by Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota

Worst Scenario (0.0%) - Loss plus wins by Washington and Minnesota.

 

Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at chancebot@gmail.com

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