Preview: Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (Week 1, Regular Season)

If you didn't already know, the Carolina Panthers will open their 2008 regular season in San Diego against the Chargers on Sept.7 at 4:15 EST.  While this will certainly be a really tough game for the Panthers, considering the Chargers are a top-five team in the NFL, and for that reason most would be inclined to quickly say that the Chargers will win easily—just because they're the Chargers.  But let's take a closer look at this matchup to see just how hard it will be for Carolina.

Everyone knows that San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson, aka LT, is one the best backs—if not the best back—in the NFL.  Even though I'm a Panthers fan, I won't blow sunshine up our arses and say that we'll hold LT to 40 yards on 15 carries—he will probably do well against us.  But there are two reasons to believe he won't do as well as many believe. 

Three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers will play a pivotal role in this contest.  If the Chargers run to his side of the D-Line enough, he could really disrupt their running game.  Peppers is as athletic as defensive ends come, and he's fast, too.  But if LT gets by Peppers too much, middle linebacker Jon Beason will need to step it up and find a way to get to him, fast. 

Unfortunately, this strategy has the pray-this-happens mindset that doesn't often work in the NFL (fans who have prayed for a miracle, last-minute win for their team in the past know this well).  In addition, it will require a great deal of luck.  Lastly, even if San Diego does run to Peppers' side of the line, there's no guarantee that Peppers will be able to contain LT that much. 

Anyway, the second reason is the sheer fact that John Fox, the Panthers' head coach, has a long history of defensive prowess.  If anyone can create a gameplan that will slow LT down, it's Fox.  If I were him, I'd have both Julius Peppers and Jon Beason—the anchors of the defense—keep an extra close eye on him.  

But to be honest, the two players I'm worrying the most about stopping are tight end Antonio Gates and receiver Chris Chambers.

We've never been able to defend receiving tight ends, and Gates could definitely capitalize on that potential fatality.  Even lesser tight ends have burned us in the past.  If inferior tight ends have had their ways with us, what kind of numbers will Gates, the best tight end in football, put up on us?  I'm shuddering at the mere thought of it. 

However, we may just catch a break—Gates had offseason toe surgery, and the toe that was operated on, as of Aug.12, is still hindering his ability to play to his full ability—he was, reportedly, not even close to 100%.  He has said that he still thinks he can make it back for the start of the regular season, but he also concedes that progress has been agonizingly slow. 

But if Gates plays, we're just about screwed.  Because of Gates' injury status and how crucial his role is in this game, he is the Chargers' X-factor.  If he plays, the Chargers will probably win.  If he doesn't, this game is by no means a guaranteed win for the Panthers, but it is far more winnable.

The Panthers' best shot at defending Gates is to double up on him.  Also, when possible, bring in an extra defensive back—the biggest one one the team—whose only job is to watch Gates.

When we lost to the Dolphins back in 2006, there were only two players I remembered for an extended period of time after the game—Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers.  Let's focus on Chambers. 

Going into the game against Miami, I thought it would be a cakewalk.  Boy was I wrong.  As Brown compiled 132 rushing yards and a touchdown, Chambers helped keep the Dolphins in the game with six receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown.  I remember there was one drive in particular where he made almost every play and he got almost every first down—years after that drive, I still remember him for that. 

Okay, so Brown did more.  But Chambers is more relevant here.  We couldn't defend Chambers because Brown stretched our defense.  Who says the same thing can't happen with between Chambers and LT?

Besides, Chambers is almost sure to be a threat because he is the best receiver the Chargers have.  The Panthers should just try to contain Chambers with a double-team.     

As for the Panthers offense, they may have even more incentive than usual to run the ball.

Most importantly, star receiver Steve Smith will be serving the first game of his two-game suspension this week.  That makes the Bolts defense's job much easier right away. 

The Chargers defensive line—even considering they're a 3-man line—is only average.  The Panthers offensive line will have to be good, but not great, in this game if they want to get the running game going.

But even if DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart get by the defensive line, chances are they won't make it past the linebackers unless they sprint through the middle of the field.  Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman, San Diego's outside linebackers, are simply beasts.  Phillips had 8.5 sacks last season, and Merriman had 12.5 sacks—a total of 21 sacks—that's insane for a pair of linebackers! 

However, SD's duo of inside linebackers is much weaker.  If I were Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson, I'd call a lot of inside runs and hand off to power back Jonathan Stewart in this game.

Then there's the Panthers passing game, bolstered by the offseason signings of receivers Muhsin Muhammad, a former Panther of nine years, and DJ Hackett, a receiver who spent his first four years in the pros with the Seattle Seahawks.  It's great that Carolina has these receivers now because, as I mentioned earlier, Smitty isn't playing this week.  However, it will still be a tough task to throw successfully against the SD secondary.

Cornerback Antonio Cromartieintercepted 10 passes last year—10!!!  That figure led the NFL, with Rams safety OJ Atogwe finishing second, with eight.  SS Clinton Hart had 85 tackles and five interceptions.  But I look for corner Quentin Jammer to get eaten up. Panthers starting quarterback Jake Delhomme better be careful when he throws to Cromartie's side of the field. 

On special teams, the field position battle could be the X-factor for the Panthers.  The Chargers defense is very good, though perhaps a tad overrated.  But they're still talented.  The success of the Panthers' offense could hinge on how far they have to go on each possession to score. 

With that said, there's good and bad news.  How about the good news first, for a change? 

Chargers kicker Nate Kaedingonly forced seven touchbacks last season for a team that was fifth in the NFL in scoring at 25.8 ppg.  Knowing that, we can assume that the Chargers scored about three touchdowns and one field goal per game, which means that—including only scores, no kickoffs at the start of a game or half—the Chargers kicked off 64 times in the 2007 season. 

But counting all kickoffs, by adding the number of kickoffs after a score to the minimum sixteen kickoffs a team must make during the season (to kickoff either the start of a game or the start of the second half), San Diego kicked off 80 times.  That means Kaeding's touchback percentage is roughly (after rounding up) nine percent.  This means that Kaeding doesn't kick very far, and this could give the Panthers more opportunities to gain better field position, making it easier to score and win the game.

Now the bad news.  Bolts punter Mike Scifreshad the fifth-highest distance average in the league last year, 46.1 yards.  If the Panthers defense holds, they may get really poor field position because Scifres could pin them behind their own ten. 

I'm not going to bother doing all the math for the Chargers that I just did for the Panthers' chances of getting appreciable field position because their offense—with LT, Gates, and Chambers—is so dynamic that I don't think field position will be much of an issue for them.   

All things taken into perspective, this will be a tough game for the Panthers no matter what—games against top-five teams are always tough.  Your prediction is as good as mine, but for the Panthers to win this game, they either need to find a way to shut Antonio Gates down, or they should hope that his injury holds him back from playing Week 1.