IconIs it just the Liver who gets a guilty feeling every time he hears the word "flex" now? The girlfriend certainly doesn't like it. It's bad enough that the Liver has to keep track of ALL THE GAMES because of point spreads—now he has to throw out "Sweetheart, I can’t go to your parents house this weekend, the flex game is on Sunday night." Too bad the Liver can't flex his girlfriend to the offseason, when he might have some use for her besides victory sex when the Cowboys and Longhorns win and pity sex when they lose.

Did the Liver mention that he has commitment issues?

Anyway, what a week, what a week. Jake Plummer gets benched for Jay Cutler? Check. Michael Irvin apologizes for saying that Tony Romo has some “slave blood” in him? Check. Plaxico Burress pulls a Randy Moss and quits on a play that leads to an interception by Pacman Jones in the fourth quarter of the Giants loss? Check. EVERYBODY on the Giants calls each other out? Check. Vince Young is still the Liver's hero? Check. Mike Vanderjagt gets cut and is replaced by Martin Grammatica? Check. Tony Romo continues to make the Liver believe that God has taken a more hands-on approach to His football team? Check. The Liver wishes that Bevo had taken a shit on Paul "Let me tell you something" Maguire during the UT-A&M game? Check. The Dallas Mavericks might be able to finish in 2007 what they couldn’t in 2006? Check.

This really is the most wonderful time of the year. Too bad there’s only one month left of it.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY.  Only Michael Richards, Michael Irvin, Joe Namath, Mel Gibson, all the players and coaches of the New York football Giants, Mike Vanderjagt, and Jake Plummer would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 10-6

2006 Record against the Spread: 82-88-6

Sunday, December 3rd

Arizona (+6 ½) at St. Louis

St. Louis ended a five-game losing streak last week by beating a a hot 49ers team. Only in the NFC can you be 5-6 and pretend to still be in the playoff hunt. At 2-9, on the other hand, Arizona can't even pretend that they're a football team. Matt “Flower in the Mouth” Leinart said this week he’d love for Pete Carroll to come coach the Cardinals. I’m sure that made Dennis Green’s year. Hey Edgerrin James, how’s your season going, mercenary? Pick: Arizona

Atlanta (+2) at Washington

The wheels have just about fallen off of the Falcons bus. As if losing four in a row isn’t bad enough, Michael Vick flipped off his own fans after the game last week. Is it just me or did I see Jim Mora wearing a “I Love Matt” shirt at the postgame press conference? One more loss and you might see him. The Pigs of D.C. got Jason Campbell his first win with an impressive performance against a helter-skelter Panthers team. The defense played its first great game of the year, and the 'Skins ran the ball effectively with Ladell Betts. If they can do it again this week, the Falcons could be looking at five in a row—and Mora might be out of a job at the end of the season. By the way, it’s not Michael Vick’s fault that his receivers couldn't catch a ball if you superglued their hands to it. You’d think it was Terrell Owens playing out there. Oh wait, he plays for the Cowboys. Damn. Pick: Washington

Detroit (+13 ½) at New England

Who didn’t root for Joey Harrington on Thanksgiving? The Lions deserved it—especially with the way the front office apparently told the PA announcer at Ford Field to introduce Harrington SPECIFICALLY so he could get booed by the crowd. Sounds like the genius of Matt Millen. I hope Joey wins a Super Bowl and then urinates on Millen’s lawn while brandishing the Lombardi Trophy. I’ve said it before: Millen is STEALING money from the Lions organization. New England won a sloppy game last week against the Bears and should be able to handle Detroit. Pick: Detroit

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7 ½)

The Colts got back to their winning ways by pounding a wounded Filthy team. Vince Young looked like he was back at the Rose Bowl last week against the Giants. Having watched him all through college and basked in his National Championship, it doesn't surprise me to see him doing so well so early in his career. The man is a winner, plain and simple. Titans fans, count your blessings. Within the next four years, you’ll be rooting for a Super Bowl contender. The Colts should win this—but Vince will make them work for it. Pick: Tennessee

Jacksonville (+1 ½) at Miami

Jacksonville is the AFC equivalent of the Carolina Panthers: You just can’t get a read on them. One week they look great; the next week they lose to a clearly inferior team. Their only chance to get in the playoffs is as a wild card—and if the season ended today, they’d be on the outside looking in. The Miami defense has built up some steam during a four-game winning streak, and the Fins have been getting solid play from Joey Harrington. Pick: Miami

Kansas City at Cleveland (+5)

Kansas City got a crucial win over Denver on Thanksgiving and finds themselves right in the thick of the wild card hunt. Trent Green is getting his sea legs back and the defense has been performing at a high level—never a Chiefs strong point in the past. The Browns, well—they’re the Browns. Anybody want some action on the next Braylon Edwards blowup? I love wide receivers. Pick: Cleveland

Minnesota (+9) at Chicago

Looks like Dr. Emmett Brown was able to help Brad Johnson last week. Rex Grossman has been erratic of late, and some folks in Chicago are already calling for Brian Griese. Not just yet. Apparently, Grossman was talking smack after the Bears came from behind to beat the Vikings in week three. Several members of the Vikings defense have said they'll use it as motivation, which begs a question: Does it really take a QB who looks like a high school band member talking smack to get you motivated? Pick: Minnesota

New York Jets at Green Bay (+1 ½)

The Jets remind me of the Little Engine That Could: They think they can, they think they can, they think they can... All jokes aside, Eric Mangini has done a fantastic job and is 1B to Sean Payton’s 1A in the race for Coach of the Year. The Jets have an outside shot at the playoffs, but it's doubtful. And then there’s Brett Favre. Who knows if he’s done after this year, but this is just depressing. Also keep in mind that in the last ten years he has as many playoff wins as Michael Vick does. That would be two, if you were wondering. Pick: New York Jets

San Diego at Buffalo (+6)

San Diego looks like world-beaters right now, but they should be wary of a scrappy Bills team that has been competitive when nobody expected it. The real question: Is LT over or under 3 TDs? Pick: Buffalo

San Francisco (+7) at New Orleans

San Francisco has made great strides this year thanks to strong play from Alex Smith and Frank Gore. That said, they're not ready for the playoff lights quite yet. New Orleans got back on track last week by pounding the Falcons. Drew Brees is having one of the most prolific passing years in NFL history with five straight 300-yard games and quite possibly the highlight of 2006: his Hail Mary before halftime against the Falcons that landed in the hands of former Cowboys “great” Terrance Copper. The Saints are on top of the NFC South and need to win this one before an emotional Sunday night game against the Cowboys next week. Pick: San Francisco

Tampa Bay (+7) at Pittsburgh

I must admit that even though I hate any Brian Billick team, I thoroughly enjoyed seeing Ben Roethlisberger get the living shit kicked out of him last week by the Ravens. Tampa Bay has a big bag of nothing right now as their defense is aged and injured and QB Bruce Gradkowski is making too many mistakes, even for a rookie. Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at New York Giants (+3 ½)

The game of the week. It’s good to see my beloved Cowboys back on the NFL must-watch list on a regular basis. Where to start with this one? How 'bout a month ago, when these teams were headed in polar opposite directions? The Cowboys were struggling and had just inserted Tony Romo under center. The Giants were on a five-game win streak and led the NFC East. Now the Cowboys are riding high with a three-game win streak, the hottest and highest-rated QB in football, and the division lead in the most crucial part of the season. The Giants, on the other hand? They've lost three in a row, Eli Manning is playing like dog shit (he's the LOWEST-RATED QB in the NFL since 2004), they're quitting on plays (Hi Plaxico), and the entire team—from Tom Coughlin on down—is taking shots at each other in the press. If the Cowboys win on Sunday, they're locked in for the division crown and the Giants are slated for a painful death. If the Giants win, they're back on top of the East, own all the tiebreakers with the Cowboys, and can play the "It was us against the world and nobody believed in us" card. If you look at who needs the game more, it's clearly the Giants—one more loss could flush that whole organization into the Hudson River. Still, I’m going with my heart (although I'm certainly not putting money on it): Look for Dallas to POUND THE SHIT out of a dysfunctional, divided Giants team and have the Meadowlands faithful booing the home team from halftime on. Pick: Dallas

Houston at Oakland (+3)

This is a game that the great coach Bobby Finstock would have forfeited so his players could get home and beat the traffic. Art Shell thinks there’s a mole in the Raiders organization who spoke negatively to the press about his now-former offensive coordinator Tom Walsh. This would be the same Tom Walsh who has the Raiders offense DEAD LAST in the league in total offense. This is also the same Tom Walsh who as Raiders fans can proudly tell you was running a bed-and-breakfast this time last year. Strange thing is the Oakland defense has been playing exceptionally well. As for the Texans, they're not playing Jacksonville, so expect them to have problems. Pick: Houston

Seattle (+3) at Denver

The Sunday night extravaganza. Look out NFC: Shaun Alexander is back. Yes, his 201 rushing yards came against a Green Bay team that you and I could run on—but the fact is he’s healthy and he’s the reigning MVP. Hasselbeck looked like shit in the first half but got his legs back as the game wore on. As long as they both stay healthy, Seattle is still a threat in the NFC. Little Jay Cutler makes his first start at QB for the Broncos tonight. When you’re 7-4 and you bench your QB (Jake the Fake), you must have LESS THAN ZERO confidence in him. Personally, I don’t agree with the move, but then again I didn’t agree with Romo for Bledsoe, so what the hell do I know? The difference is that Romo isn’t a dictionary-definition rookie; he had sat and learned for four seasons. Cutler was playing at Vanderbilt this time last year. Mike Shanahan is presuming that any mistakes he makes will be minimal and that the Broncos can still contend in the AFC. That’s a dangerous presumption, but many say Cutler had the best arm coming out of the draft. Should be fun to watch as I bask in the afterglow of a Cowboys victory. Pick: Seattle

Monday, December 4th

Carolina at Philadelphia (+3)

Has anyone noticed that the MNF favorite has covered five weeks running? I know this because I’ve lost the last five MNF games. Carolina is one of those flighty teams that can’t put together back-to-back games. If they consider themselves any kind of playoff contender, they need to pound a wounded Filthy squad early and often. If Filthy covers this game, Carolina is a fraud. Pick: Carolina