For what seems like eons, the performance and ability of pitchers and hitters alike have been judged on certain statistics. These stats, regarded as canon by the majority of baseball writers in America, often focus around a constant core of numbers used to determine a player's value and, to an extent, in Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Award voting.
For hitters, batting average, RBI, and home runs are the three most commonly discussed numbers. For pitchers, people look to wins and ERA to tell the story.
Relief pitchers aside, I have no problem with the use of ERA as a worth-determining stat. Every other one listed above, however, has its drawbacks.
In this series of articles, I'll be discussing these stats and just how ineffective they can be in determining a player's value to his team. This particular article will discuss pitching wins.
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More often than not, it seems a pitcher's record is the end-all-be-all of his true value. A pitcher who wins 10 games is automatically better than one who wins seven; a 20-game winner is almost a surefire bet for the Cy Young award.
Writers and fans alike see wins as the responsibility of the pitcher and the pitcher alone, refusing to accept that offensive support has anything to do with a pitcher's win or loss.
Take, for example, the 2008 incarnation of Livan Hernandez. Late of the Twins and currently of the Rockies, Hernandez has 10 wins to his credit in 24 starts. Yet, as Minnesota's fan base certainly knows, Hernandez was released by the Twins last week. Why, some have asked, would a pitcher tied for 12th in the AL in wins simply be released?
The answer lies behind the record.
In 139.2 IP with Minnesota, Hernandez surrendered 20 home runs, while striking out just 55 and walking 33. To put those numbers into rates, that's one home run every 6.98 IP, 3.54 strikeouts per nine IP, and a mere 1.67 K/BB ratio.
Those numbers produced a 5.48 ERA for Hernandez in Minnesota, good for just a 74 ERA+. That means, even in the more offense-heavy AL, Hernandez's numbers were still 26% below average Major League production.
Even more astounding still is the fact that opposing batters are hitting for an average of .344 off Hernandez. You read right; that's average for all batters.
How, then, does Hernandez have 10 wins? Surely no pitcher could manage to win that many games with those numbers.
There is where the second factor of a pitcher's record enters into play: offensive support. Among pitchers with at least 100 IP this season, only Garrett Olson of the Orioles and Vicente Padilla of the Rangers have received more run support for every nine innings of pitching than has Livan Hernandez (6.32 R/9 IP).
Increase the criteria to 120 IP and only Padilla remains ahead of Hernandez. Hernandez also has the highest WHIP (an astounding 1.63) of any pitcher in that group.
Basically, Hernandez's ineffectiveness as a starter was constantly masked by heavy Twins production, negating typical losses and sometimes converting them into wins. Bear in mind that only 11 of Hernandez's 23 AL starts were quality starts, and only two of those resulted in a Hernandez loss, meaning the offense let him down only twice.
15 comments Last one added 10 months ago — Leave a Comment
Paul Boye 10 months ago
For the full list of pitching instances I mention here, use Baseball-Reference's Play Index.
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Patrick Murray 10 months ago
Good article. Wins are definitely not a good measure of a pitchers ability. Look at Johan Santana this year- he has 9 wins despite a 2.85 ERA and 17 quality starts. A pitchers win-loss record is more indicative of how his team plays when he pitches than how he pitches. I dont know much about sabermetric stats like ERA+, but I think the mainstream media needs to start looking at stats such as WHIP, K/BB, and K/9 (as well as continuing to use ERA) when determining a pitchers effectiveness
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Patrick Murray 10 months ago
Also, perhaps instead of wins, quality starts should be looked at more often
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Adam Miller 10 months ago
i agree, wins are so overrated but that's how bad pitchers get their money.
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L.J. Burgess 10 months ago
Losses too. How many 2-1, 3-2 losses kill a guys numbers ya know.
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L.J. Burgess 10 months ago
So, do you feel that WHIP would be a better performance stat?
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L.J. Burgess 10 months ago
Great piece btw.
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Paul Boye 10 months ago
I do. I mean, granted, no stat is a perfect worth-determining stat, but I'd certainly look at WHIP as a corroborating stat when deciding just how effective a pitcher is.
Hernandez's 1.63 WHIP this season is ridiculous. There's no way in any universe that he should have 10 wins to his credit. Heck, more than that, he only had nine losses with the Twins. When you're allowing almost two baserunners PER INNING, that sends up about 16 red flags.
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Bret Tedd 10 months ago
A few years ago a lot of Reds fans were screaming to have Harang win the Cy Young award. After all, he had 16 wins and was one of the league leaders in strkeouts and innings pitched. At the same time he has an ERA of 3.70+ each year. Reds fans really overestimate the significance of that win-loss record.
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L.J. Burgess 10 months ago
Losses are somewhat misleading also...a tragedy for a quality starter on a poorly scoring team.
The biggest 'win skew' I can think of is a 10+ win season out of the bullpen...a weird stat in general.
WHIP is good, I like that. When I'm drafting it's my first clue ahead of a pitcher's team's OPS.
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Derek Coffelt 10 months ago
As an avid fantasy player, I've learned to be weary of wins as an indicator of just how effective a pitcher can be. More often I rather use categories such as strikeouts, recent pitching performances against hot hitting teams, and what kind of offense is behind the pitcher.
Wins and ERA certainly don't tell the whole story of a pitcher.
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Chris Pope 10 months ago
I don't see why you call it "The Death of MLB Stats" etc. I'm sure you can find instances of this all the way back to the beginnings of baseball.
Lot's of wins with a high ERA? Looks like a mediocre pitcher with darn good run support.
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Paul Boye 10 months ago
I'm calling it that less in reference to an actual "death" of the stat - you know, like if it were to no longer be recorded - and more of a comment as to the change in perception I'm hoping to bring.
I mean, we see it everywhere in mainstream sports media: pitchers are judged almost exclusively on record and ERA, when in fact so much more goes into it statistically.
Pitchers with lots of wins but with a high ERA are examples of why the perception of the importance of wins should change; sometimes they reflect well upon a pitcher's overall performance, but most of the time (like in those pitchers listed above), you really can't tell.
And sure, example go back in time. I listed recent examples so as to give a more modern reference point for anyone who reads this piece. Hope that answers your concerns.
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Ari Kramer 10 months ago
I know a little late, but I just got around to reading this article. Very interesting information -- I really like all the random stats and information you bring that support your point. I do think wins are overrated, but they are still important in determining how good a pitcher is. Perhaps ERA, WHIP, and ratios like K/9, K/BB, etc., should be used over wins when determining the worth of a pitcher. For relievers, wins are the biggest load of bullshit, as you say they can pick up a win while throwing less than 5 pitches.
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Paul Boye 10 months ago
For all the hype wins get, let's just hope holds don't get the same attention. Those are quite possibly the worst stats to grace a stat line
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