Not a lot to preview in this weeks’ match up when the No. 5 Ducks play host to FCS Portland State. I wont bore you with things to watch for, or a preview and deep analysis of the game. Instead, I want to begin the discussion of the inevitable.
How bad will this blowout be?
Before I get a whole bunch of comments screaming Appalachian State or James Madison, let me give Portland State some credit.
Credit for playing two of their three non-conference games against PAC-10 powers, Arizona State and now Oregon. Arizona State, one of lower ranked offenses in the PAC-10, managed a respectful 54 points at home.
Oregon, needless to say, does not have a low ranked offense.
The Ducks come into Saturday’s game ranked in the top five in the country in scoring offense, rushing offense and yards per game.
Through two games this season Oregon’s offense is averaging 60 points per game, and nearly 500 total yards of offense.
Keep in mind Oregon’s played two FBS teams so far—including on the road last week at Tennessee.
So, all you James Madison and Appalachian State hopefuls, sorry it’s just not going to happen.
Which brings me to my original question: How many points will the Ducks score this weekend?
Keep in mind how much they will score, and how much they could score are two very different things. After 59 points at the half against New Mexico, coach Chip Kelly called off the dogs, scoring a measly 13 second half points when the team seemingly was approaching triple digits.
I expect a similar pattern this weekend. No matter the probable outcome, players understand the game starts tied and therefore will come out of the gates fast. Expect to see huge rushing numbers from LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, as well as another solid performance from quarterback Darron Thomas.
However, Oregon’s offense may rarely be on the field.
The Ducks bring the top ranked punt return average in the nation into Saturday’s game as well. And it seems likely Portland State will be put in many fourth down situations, the return game may keep Oregon’s offense off the field all together.
OK, down to the nitty-gritty. I believe Oregon will average three touchdowns per quarter. Simple math and the Ducks will have 84 points when the ticker hits zero.
Oregon will then be averaging an astounding 72 points per game, the highest ever by any team after their first three games of the season.
Simply said, the announcers this weekend better make sure to learn every third, fourth, and fifth stringers name, as these players could be in as early as the start of the third quarter.
Even as nice as Chip Kelly is, and the seemingly unattractive nature of this game, it should be a must watch as an FBS team could reach the 100 point plateau for the first time since Hawaii in 1968.
Now I put the discussion in your hands. How many points will, can, are the Ducks going to score this weekend?