The Yankees are in their worst run of the season. They have dropped four straight games for the first time this year and they are 1-7 over their last eight games as the offense has completely shut down. New York has averaged 2.9 rpg over this eight-game stretch. The Yankees have dropped the first four games of this roadtrip and going back to the last series with Tampa Bay, they are 7-12 in their last 19 road games.
Tampa Bay took a half-game lead with last night’s extra-inning victory and improved to 4426 at home on the season. This includes wins in 10 of its last 12 games at Tropicana Field. The pitching took a big hit during the recent roadtrip but playing at home is the perfect cure as on the season the Rays have a 3.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 4.21 and 1.33 on the road respectively.
This is the best time for Matt Garza to face New York as his track record is not very good.
The Rays have lost his last seven starts against the Yankees despite him pitching fairly solid in those games. He has faced New York just once this season and itched good enough to win but the Rays dropped a 5-4 game. He has been outstanding at home this season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts with the Rays going 10-3 in those games. Going back further, the Rays are 20-7 in Garza’s last 27 starts as a home favorite.
New York sends Ivan Nova to the hill and he has been a decent addition to the rotation. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts but he has only one quality outing to show for it. His overall ERA is a solid 2.92 but his WHIP is 1.34 and that is rather high so he is allowing baserunners but has been fortunate to have been able to get out of jams.
Tampa Bay also falls into a great league-wide situation.
Play on American League favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 that are averaging between 4.7 and 5.2 rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is 4.20 or better after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) since 1997. Also, the Rays are 24-9 this season against American League starters with an ERA of 3.50 or better. 3* Tampa Bay Rays