Colorado Buffaloes Football Predictions (Games 7-12)

Say what you will about Gary Barnett (and I can say plenty), the Buffs in November always seemed to win the games they had to. Improbable Big 12 North titles in 2004 and 2005 were fueled by big wins in November.

It’s time for the Buffs under Dan Hawkins to begin making their own November statements. Oklahoma State will come to Boulder in November already having won six or seven games. They will leave Boulder with the same win total.

Nov. 28 - at Nebraska

Fast facts:If you are a Colorado fan, you have heard all you need to hear about how "Bo knows football" during the past off-season. Bo Pelini, in case you have been living in a biosphere for the past eight months, is the new head coach at Nebraska, replacing Bill Callahan. Pelini, with Nebraska as defensive coordinator for all of one season (2003), is seen as the returning savior of the Tom Osborne legacy. Pelini’s impressive resume, with Nebraska, Oklahoma, and LSU, belies the fact that Pelini has never been a head coach anywhere (yes, Husker fans, he is 1-0, having served as interim head coach for Nebraska’s bowl win over Michigan State in the Alamo bowl in 2003. Would you be so quick to point out Pelini’s "record" as head coach if the Cornhuskers had lost that game?).

Notwithstanding the unbridled optimism which has overtaken the Husker Nation, what does Bo Pelini have to work with? The offense will be good. Joe Ganz took over for Sam Keller late in the 2007 season, and threw for almost 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns in just three games. Running back Marion Lucky is the top returning rusher in the Big 12. The offensive line is more than adequate.

So what’s the problem? Well, that would be the defense. Yes, Ganz threw 15 touchdown passes in three games. Yes, the Cornhuskers scored a combined 163 points in three games under Ganz - and Nebraska lost two of those games. Other than rolling over Kansas State in a 73-31 win, the Cornhuskers lost to Kansas, 76-39, and Colorado, 65-51. In 2007, The Blackshirts gave up more first downs, yards, and points in a season than any other team in school history. And that unit lost all of its linebackers. Bo may know defense, but it may take some time - and different personnel - before Nebraska will regain elite status.

Why Buff fans should look forward to this game with optimism:

1) Defense wins championships. And Nebraska does not have a defense. Yes, the Cornhuskers will be better in 2008 under the tutelage of Bo Pelini - they could hardly be much worse. 114^th in scoring defense in 2007. 116^th in passing defense. 112^th in total defense. The bright spot? The passing defense - 84^th in the nation. Those numbers won’t be fixed overnight, especially not for a defense which was so thin that running back Cody Glenn was moved to linebacker - and he may start.

2) The aura is missing. The aura of playing Nebraska in Lincoln is, if not gone, at least on vacation. Colorado has played well in Lincoln of late, winning in both 2002 (28-13) and 2004 (26-20). Losses in 2000 and 2006 were close, and those were bad CU teams. In 2000, a 3-7 Buff squad was up, 32-31, over 9^th-ranked Nebraska before falling on a last second field goal, and, in 2006, a 2-9 Buff squad was within a touchdown, at 20-14, late in the third quarter, before running out of steam in a 37-14 loss. The Buffs can do Lincoln.

3) Exposed. Nebraska doesn’t leave home to play a college football game until October 11^th (insert your own joke about non-conference scheduling here). While there will be dancing in the streets in Lincoln after Nebraska beats up on Western Michigan, San Jose State, and New Mexico State to open the season (and will likely - though unbelievably - get Nebraska close to being nationally ranked), the following three games will show the college football world what the Cornhuskers are made of. Nebraska hosts Virginia Tech and Missouri before finally taking to the road to face Texas Tech. While two of the three games are at home, they are at least against legitimate teams. If Nebraska wins two of those three games, I will start to believe in the magic of Bo. Until then ....

Why there is reason for Buff fans to lose sleep the night before the game:

1) Home cooking. If Nebraska is not 3-0 before the Virginia Tech game, and not putting up good, in not impressive statistics, there will be cause for alarm in Lincoln. Here’s guessing the Cornhuskers will be undefeated when the Hokies come to Memorial Stadium. Virginia Tech is a good team, but lost most of its receivers, its leading rusher, and has only four returning starters on defense. A Nebraska win here would not be a complete shock. Then there is Missouri. A likely top ten team heading to Lincoln for the conference opener, the Tigers must face the reality of not having won on the road against Nebraska since 1978. Bo has an early season schedule tailor-made for a boost in confidence for the Cornhusker players. That momentum could carry through the remainder of the season.

2) It’s a rivalry, stupid. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks". The more Cornhusker fans decry the concept that Colorado/Nebraska is a rivalry, the bigger the rivalry becomes. While the 2008 showdown may not be for the Big 12 North title, it is a big game, a nationally televised game, a game after a bye week. The Cornhuskers will be ready for the Buffs in November.

3) 18-46-2. While the Buffs have certainly made inroads in the rivalry of late (winning four of the past seven games against Nebraska), this is still Nebraska we are talking about, and the overall series record heavily favors the Cornhuskers. Nebraska may have been brought down a few pegs over the past few seasons, but it is inconceivable at this point that the Cornhuskers will ever fall under the "sure win" category. Regardless of what Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma put up against Nebraska earlier in the season, Colorado will be lucky to escape Lincoln with a victory.

Nebraska game to keep and eye on before the Colorado/Nebraska game:

Nebraska v. Missouri - October 4^th. This is the "show me" game for the team from the "Show Me State". The Tigers put it to the Cornhuskers, 41-6, in Columbia last season. Can Missouri overcome all its history of misery at Memorial Stadium to rest (last win: 35-31, November 18, 1978), or will Nebraska re-enter the national rankings after putting upstart Missouri back in its place as an also-ran in the Big 12? It should be a loud and interesting game.

My thoughts: Ask me again in early November. If, as expected, the Buffs are a better team than in 2007, but, due to its schedule, has little to show for it, this will be a tough game for Colorado. Conversely, if Colorado has broken through the tough part of its schedule relatively unscathed, and is coming off two dominating home wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State, the Buffs could be rolling into Lincoln with great momentum and optimism about the future.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS:

There are two ways to break down the 2008 Colorado schedule. One way is to work from the extremes towards the middle. In that respect, Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Kansas State, and Iowa State are the most likely wins. West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, and Missouri will all likely be ranked when the Buffs play them (perhaps all undefeated and in the top ten), so there are four losses. This means the 2008 schedule comes down to four games: at Florida State, at Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and at Nebraska. In order to improve on the 6-6 regular season record of 2007, the Buffs will need to win three of those four games. With three of those games being on the road, such an improvement may be a tall order for Colorado.

I prefer to break down the 2008 schedule into segments. The first segment contains the first two games: v. CSU in Denver, and at home against Eastern Washington. This is easy: for the Buffs to have a winning season, both of these games must be victories.

The second segment of the season stretches four games: West Virginia; at Florida State; Texas; and at Kansas. All but Florida State will be ranked, the remaining three likely ranked in the top ten when playing the Buffs. Colorado needs to win at least one of these games. Not just to make a splash in the national media. Not just to enhance the overall record. But to set up a stretch run to a bowl game in 2008. Florida State is the easiest pick for a CU win, but the game is at Jacksonville, and the Seminoles remain an enigma. A win over Texas at home, or even over Kansas on the road, is not inconceivable. This is the crucial stretch of the season. 0-4 could send the Buffs reeling. 1-3 gives the Buffs life in the bowl chase. 2-2 (or better!), and the set up for a magical season will be in place.

The third segment of the season stretches three games: Kansas State; at Missouri; at Texas A&M. If the Buffs fail to win two games in the first segment, or fail to win one in the second segment, this stretch of the season will decide Colorado’s fate in 2008. Should the Buffs get through the first half 3-3, a bowl bid becomes a strong possibility, as the Buffs will only need one win in this segment. A victory over Kansas State leaves the Buffs playing with house money against Missouri and Texas A&M. A win over either would be gravy.

The final segment of the 2008 campaign involves three games: Iowa State; Oklahoma State; and at Nebraska. A 4-5 Buff team will not need to panic, as both Iowa State and Oklahoma State are winnable games. Should the Buffs enter the final phase of the season with a winning record, the speculation will now be over which bowl the Buffs will be invited to attend.

A tough schedule; a long season. I see great improvement in the overall talent and attitude in Boulder. How that manifests itself on the playing field remains to be seen. This could be a breakout season for the Buffs, but I believe that will come in 2009 (when the non-conference slate is much more manageable). Most breakout teams, the season before they make their move on the national stage, post eight wins the year before (including Colorado, which finished 8-4 before going 11-1 and 11-1-1 in 1989 and 1990). I see seven regular season wins, and a bowl win to conclude the season on a high note, and to set the stage for 2009.

Others may want more out of 2008, but for me - "Eight is Enough".

For more on CU football, log on to http://www.cuatthegame.com

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?