The Window is Closing: What Will the Dallas Mavericks Do?
THE BIG THREE | nbadimensions.net
The Dallas Mavericks, a team whose average age is 28.1, realize that their window of opportunity to get back to the NBA Finals is closing.
They know that, you know that, I know that, and apparently even Magic Johnson knows that, according to a blog on the Dallas Morning News’ website.
The acquisition of future Hall of Fame point guard Jason Kidd just before the All-Star break sent the Mavericks in the opposite direction of the one they hoped to travel.
A first round elimination, courtesy of the New Orleans Hornets, made 2008 the second straight year the Mavericks had failed to advance in the playoffs.
It prompted the organization to fire head coach Avery “Little General” Johnson, who had led them to the Finals in the second of his four seasons in Dallas.
Rick Carlisle, former Coach of the Year with the Detroit Pistons, was named Johnson’s successor on May 9, signing a four-year deal with the team.
In his two seasons as an NBA head coach with the Detroit Pistons, Carlisle was able to record consecutive 50-win seasons, and got them to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2003.
After being fired by the Pistons in favor of legendary head coach Larry Brown, Carlisle was able to lead the Indiana Pacers to a franchise-best 61 wins in his first year as their head coach, including an Eastern Conference Finals berth that same season.
Carlisle’s first move was to visit Mavericks star Dirk Nowitzki in Germany; a great way to start his tenure. He looks to bring credibility to the Mavericks, though a little inexperienced with only seven NBA seasons under his belt as a head coach.
The buck doesn’t stop there, however. Hiring a new coach isn’t going to change the fact that the Mavericks still can’t compete for a championship without making some trades and free agent signings.
So far, the Mavericks have added swingman Gerald Green, 22; forward James Singleton, 27; former Maverick DeSegana Diop, 26; and they drafted sharp shooting Shan Foster of Vanderbilt, who doesn’t look to be a contributor right away.
While these are solid additions, they are nowhere near enough to get this franchise back to the top. If Dallas wants to rejoin the elite in the basketball world, they’re going to have to swing one or two more trades.
Carlisle could prove to be a nice change in philosophy for the team, but he can’t get this team back to the Finals on his own; he’s going to need the help of owner Mark Cuban and President of Basketball Operations/General Manager Donn Nelson.
Trading Josh Howard could be one route to go. He’s still young at 28, and his contract, at about $10 million for the upcoming season with two years left isn’t going to scare anyone away.
He has embarrassed the team by vocalizing his use of marijuana, and he shot a dismal 29.2 percent from the field in Dallas’ five games against the Hornets in the playoffs. A change of scenery could be just what he needs.
Guard Jason Terry and center Erick Dampier, both with unwelcoming contracts, could also be moved in a trade if Dallas can find a willing partner, as they’re looking at some cap issues down the line—Dirk, Diop, Terry, and Dampier all have three years or more left on their contracts.
Dallas would like to dump one or both of their contracts so they won’t be hampered by bad contracts when they’re no longer able to compete and need to sign a new group of players.
Maybe Jason Kidd could be on his way out as another possible option? This would be less likely to me than trading Howard would, but Kidd’s $21 million deal expires at the end of this season, and team’s with talent that are looking to rebuild could be interested in him.
New York is one team that comes to mind. They have two goals in mind: First, to be under the cap by 2010, the offseason in which LeBron James and other notable free agents end their deals with their respective teams and test the free agency pool. This must be achieved by loading up on contracts that expire in two seasons or less.
The second goal is to get the right players to fit D’Antoni’s run-and-gun system. They have a few players that don’t currently fit the team’s system, and they could be used as trade bait.
Who fits those two criteria better than Jason Kidd? Expiring contract before 2010? Check. Ability to run a fast break-oriented team from the point guard spot? Check.
Jason Kidd is a perfect fit for offensive mastermind Mike D’Antoni. Currently, the Knicks have Chris Duhon and Nate Robinson competing for New York’s starting spot at point.
You’ve got to think D’Antoni would welcome an experienced veteran, one of the NBA’s top point guards of all-time, to quarterback his offense instead of one of these guys.
The main question in this kind of deal is, “What could the Knicks possibly offer the Mavericks in any kind of trade?”
This is a legitimate question that needs to be asked. Currently, the Knicks don’t have a quality point guard to offer, and the Mavericks would likely want to get a guard in return.
Also, Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph have been underachievers in New York, though a change of scenery could benefit them both.
Am I crazy to think that the Mavericks would be interested in trading with this team that seemingly has little to offer? Crazy as I may be, I decided to mess with the trade machine, and here are the ideas I got:
The Mavericks would send Jason Kidd ($21 million, expiring) and Erick Dampier ($11.5 million, three years left) to the Knicks for Zach Randolph ($14.7 million, three years left), Jamal Crawford ($8.6 million, three years left), Nate Robinson ($2 million, expiring), and David Lee ($1.8 million, expiring).
This deal has its drawbacks, but how many deals are perfect, with both teams filling needs and having no new problems? This is definitely far out there, but I think it could be good for both teams.
Dallas, lacking a true post scorer next to Dirk, would obtain the explosive Zach Randolph. If he can change his attitude, and return to his prime self in Portland, then the Mavericks are getting a good sidekick next to Dirk.
Zach could contribute something around 16 points and 8 boards per game, and would form a nice inside-out combo with Nowitzki.
Jamal Crawford helps fill the void left by the departed Jason Kidd. He’s not a point guard, but current combo guard Jason Terry could move over to point and play in the backcourt with Crawford.
Both players can score, though Crawford at a low percentage, but they could become a solid offensive duo together. Terry, Crawford, Stackhouse, and Howard would be a nice perimeter rotation, with also-new acquisition Nate Robinson coming off the bench as the backup point guard.
David Lee, the final piece of this trade coming to Dallas, allows the Knicks to get rid of another player that doesn’t fit the system, and Dallas is able to acquire a solid hustle player off the bench.
The Knicks benefit from this trade as well, acquiring both cap relief (getting an expirer, along with trading two bad contracts for one) and a real point guard to run the show in New York. Dampier isn’t a good fit for the system, but considering they would be able to rid themselves of Randolph, Lee, and Crawford, it would be worth it.
Now, D’Antoni is able to put a potentially competitive team on the floor, with Curry and Dampier splitting minutes at center, and Kidd running the show at point. Room is freed up for the likes of Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Quenton Richardson, and other players who fit D’Antoni’s system better to get playing time.
Neither Randolph nor Lee are the kind of power forward Mike D’Antoni looks for in his system, so dumping them both is a good move.
I feel both teams are able to benefit from this trade, as the Mavericks acquire a suitable power forward to play with Dirk (though they could face defense problems, with neither Dirk nor Randolph being defensive standouts; Diop and Lee could help in this respect off the bench), along with a capable perimeter scorer in Crawford, a backup point guard in Nate Robinson, and an energy guy in forward David Lee.
The Knicks are able to upgrade at point guard and fix salary cap issues; I think they come out a big winner in this trade. I do sympathize with any of you viewers that see this trade as risky on Dallas’ part, and they would probably reject this offer should the Knicks come knocking on their door.
Assuming that trade idea doesn’t work, here’s another idea: Trade Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse to the Nuggets for Allen Iverson. The Mavericks would get a great perimeter scorer, and an Iverson/Kidd backcourt appears to mesh well both on offense and defense, with Kidd being able to make up for Iverson’s height deficiency and defend shooting guards.
This would give the Mavericks a threatening trio, and they would get the added bonus of both Iverson’s and Kidd’s $20+ million deals coming off the books next offseason. Jason Terry might end up in the deal as well, as he and Iverson probably wouldn’t be able to play on the court at the same time due to them both being undersized scoring guards.
Perhaps the Nuggets would include J.R. Smith (not likely) or Linas Kleiza along with their trade exception (which could be used as cap room for the Mavericks or another trading asset to use in a future deal) to make contracts match up.
Here’s another possibility between the Nuggets and Mavericks: Switch Terry with Stackhouse, and the Nuggets would get a starting point guard, and the Mavericks could rid themselves of problems at guard, as well as get rid of a bad contract and keep a starting-caliber small forward on the roster.
This idea is less sexy for the Nuggets, but they’re at least able to get a possible starting point guard in Terry, with Howard starting at the 2 and J.R. Smith coming off the bench. Either way the Nuggets and Mavericks would decide to go, both teams should be able to get what they want (Mavericks: A veteran that can score outside of Dirk and help the team win now; Nuggets: A young piece next to Melo that can defend and bring versatility, along with a solid backup coming from the deal as well).
The Lakers, who could be looking to deal the inconsistent Lamar Odom, could be interested in Josh Howard. Perhaps a Howard/Eddie Jones deal could work for both teams?
It’s not a big deal that’s going to change either franchise significantly, but the Lakers are able to upgrade at small forward, and the Mavericks get a versatile forward who can also handle the ball. If things don’t work out with Odom, he’s a free agent at the end of the year with Kidd.
Another idea: Send Howard and Dampier to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion and Udonis Haslem. This deal might not work, as the Heat want Marion to play power forward, but perhaps they’d settle on putting Beasley in the post if that means getting a young small forward next to Wade and filling their need at center.
Here’s another blockbuster idea: Trade Josh Howard and Eddie Jones to New Jersey for Vince Carter. Carter, whose contract runs past the 2010 offseason, is a possible trading asset. If New Jersey’s going to try and trade him, they might as well do it now; his value’s as high as it’s going to get for a while.
This is the type of deal that might occur during the season, while the Nets are trying to up his trade value and both teams are testing out what they’ve got. If it were to occur, the Mavericks would now have a solid Big Three, Kidd would be reunited with his former Nets teammate Carter, and Nowitzki would have a solid perimeter complement.
Carter would get to play out West against the best in Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant, and he would also allow Jason Terry to stay with the team, as “Vinsanity” isn’t the combo guard Iverson is, and wouldn’t have chemistry issues with Terry in the game.
I understand that some of my ideas seem far off, but the Mavericks are in a desperate situation. Their window is closing; in fact, it may already be shut, unless they make a big move. The Randolph idea was out there, I admit, and it mainly favors the Knicks (though Mavericks do acquire some more depth).
But some of the other trades, including the Iverson and Carter ideas, could be enough to put the Mavericks back on top. Like I mentioned earlier, Rick Carlisle can’t put this team back to the top himself, and at some point in the season the Mavericks will realize that, and they might decide to shake the foundations of the Western Conference once again.
If they decide not to, and continue to accept finishing in the middle of the pack as far as the Western Conference goes, then they’ll have you, myself, and Magic Johnson saying, “I told you so.”
The Big Three is a writer for NBA Dimensions. Join nbadimensions.net to discuss basketball with The Big Three and other NBA fanatics.
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