Some posters on NDNation are already drinking the Kool Aid. The responses on our message boards range from the hopeful:"Notre Dame is going to be really good, but with this schedule, they just have to be pretty good. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they have an undefeated showdown with USC over Thanksgiving weekend."
To the cynical:
"... what I know is how dreadful that 2007 team was. It shocked the senses with its awfulness. Any assessment of our chances in 2008, regardless of schedule, needs the sobering kick in the gut that was 2007 to be mitigation on our expectations. I expect no more than 7 wins."
I find myself in a schizophrenic state, vacillating between both points of view. Last year was truly the perfect storm with a green offensive line, a freshmen quarterback, a new defensive coordinator and a severe lack of leadership in the upper classes. That's what my rational mind looks at for hope. It also sees the incredible talent bubbling up from underneath (see Michael Floyd on the left) and that there's finally competition at most positions, but I can't stop replaying the misery that was last year in my head. Play this if you dare (turn the sound down.)
I just can't make the mental leap from last year's disaster to a great season this year.
Stepping outside of my warped mind, the USA Today coaches poll ranks Notre Dame behind five opponents this year (ND came in at #41)
2 USC
24 Michigan
31 BC
33 Pittsburgh
t39 MSU
t46 UNC
Yet Notre Dame fans think we're going to have a 3-4 loss year based on the probability poll of more than 6,500 ND fans. Drum roll please... here are the results (with some eyeball interpolation.)
Notre Dame fans think that three games are absolute slam dunks:
San Diego State 97%
Navy 97%
Syracuse 97%
Two other games are high probability games:
Stanford 87%
Washington 83%
Four more games fell into the likely win column:
Purdue 70%
Pittsburgh 67%
North Carolina 65%
BC 60%
The Michigans are relative coin flips:
Michigan 55%
Michigan state 52%
USC is in the high probability loss group.
USC 15%
Looking across those probabilities, they equate to about a 3.5 loss season even though ND Fans believe the probability is in ND's favor in 11 of the 12 games. So the expectation is to win every game but one, but the reality is that given these probabilities, the season expectation is at a Gator Bowl level or worse.
What about talent? Chronicle on Cartier field took a look at the talent level of ND compared to its 2008 opponents using the following weightings:
2004 - 75% - 5th year seniors
2005 - 100%
2006 - 75%
2007 - 50%
2008 - 25% - Freshman
This yields a talent ranking of
USC-----------3.31
UM------------5.85
ND------------18.23 - (scout)
ND------------22.92 - (rivals)
UNC----------24.85
PITT----------29.46
WASH--------35.62
MSU----------37.38
STAN---------41.00
PURDUE-----42.23
BC------------47.08
CUSE---------49.31
SDST---------73.77
NAVY--------109.00
Bottom line is Michigan still has great talent (better than ours) and UNC is very close with Pitt slightly behind. BC looks bleak, almost tied with Syracuse. Based on talent alone, there would seem to be more than a couple close games.
So talent is definitely moving in Notre Dame's favor, but this also doesn't count defections in the upper classes which are very high for the Irish.
After looking at rankings, fan probability and talent, what about Vegas?
The over-under on Notre Dame's season is seven wins. So Vegas thinks we fans are a tad optimistic and has the Irish as underdogs to USC, Michigan State and North Carolina. We were underdogs to Michigan, but betting on the Irish has made Notre Dame a favorite.
What does it all mean?
We're likely going to be still too green and too inconsistent for a good season by Notre Dame standards, but this team will show flashes of the talent that's building underneath and set the table for a title run in 2009. Anything less than 7 wins has to be a disappointment. Anything more than 8 wins the Irish are going to be on a magazine cover to start next season.
comments (1) write a comment »
write a new comment
2 months ago
Impressive stats and great analysis. North Carolina appears to be the pre-season darling.
It was recently reminded that teams have a way of expanding upon individual skill levels to achieve more than individuals are capable of themselves. I hope Charlie can build a Team in 2008 that directly contrasts the 2007 debacle.
write a new comment