The Big Three's 2008-2009 NBA Preview: Western Conference

I understand this is very premature; injuries, trades, and signings could affect my rankings. That's why I don't expect you to take it very seriously, as I realize there is plenty of offseason left, so save any "This is too early to be doing a preview" comments.  I'm just an NBA fan bored with the uneventful part of the offseason, the period between Summer League and the Olympics.  I'm sure many of you sympathize with me.  So, without further ado, here are my premature rankings that are sure to be changed by season's start.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (61-21, Pacific Division Champion)- The Lakers finished the season strong after the Pau Gasol trade, and this was without improving big man Andrew Bynum. There’s the question as to whether or not the tandem of Bynum and Gasol in the post will work, but Bynum will bring some toughness and interior defense that the Lakers lack. They’ve got a talented starting lineup with Fisher, Bryant, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum that will create many mismatches this upcoming season, and if they can stay healthy (even if there’s an injury, this team is still strong enough to get past it, as evidenced by the Lakers outstanding play without Andrew Bynum towards the end of the season), I expect them to finish with a top two record in the Western Conference and capture the Pacific Division title. The Lakers have the potential to be a 60+ win team, though I don’t think they’ll reach Boston’s level from last season as they have to compete in the tough Western Conference more often than the Celtics do.

2. New Orleans Hornets (57-25, Southwest Division Champion)- The acquisition of James Posey will strengthen the Hornets perimeter defense, but the loss of backup point guard Jannero Pargo off the bench will hurt. I see the Hornets improving by a game in the tough Western Conference, and they will compete heavily with the Rockets, Spurs, and Mavericks for the Southwestern Division crown. However, injuries could hurt this team (Peja played over half of an NBA season for the first time in three years last season; the injury bug could bite him again), and tough Western Conference competition could make the Hornets drop in the standings.

3. Houston Rockets (54-28, 2nd Place Southwest Division)- Houston on paper looks to be the best team in the Western Conference to me, but they’ve got so many injury questions that I don’t think they’ll be able to finish the regular season with the Western Conference’s top record. The Rockets finished the season strong earlier in the year, and it’s my belief that if they get a healthy Yao and Ron Artest that they could achieve 60 wins. But, like all teams in the Western Conference, it won’t come easy as there are 10 teams capable of getting 45+ wins, including 7, maybe 8 teams that could win 50 or more. Couple that with their big injury concerns, and I don’t think they’ll be able to post the best record in the West. If they are healthy come playoff time, however, I think they have a strong shot at getting to the Finals, even with the West as competitive as it is. They’ve got the right combination of defense and offense to do it.

4. Utah Jazz (52-30, Northwest Division Champion)- The Jazz have a chance to go as high as 2nd or 3rd seed in my opinion, as they didn’t have the injury issues last year that a couple of the teams ahead of them could have this season. Their starting five of Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, and Ronnie Brewer all played in 72 games or more, and if they’re able to stay healthy that consistently again this coming season (and hopefully have Kirilenko return to his old self, or at least closer to his old self) then I think they’ve got a chance to get home court advantage in the first or possibly even second round of the playoffs this upcoming season. They’ve got the inside-out combination of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer to be successful, and a solid supporting cast around them as well. Kyle Korver looks to be a big part of their rotation coming off the bench, and his shooting ability could give the Jazz the spark they need to once again win 50+ games and get a top 5 seed in the West.

5. Phoenix Suns (51-31, 2nd Place Pacific Division)- The Shaquille O’Neal trade could hurt the Suns next season, and I doubt he’s able to play over 60 games next year. He should make another drop in production next year, and with the loss of coach Mike D’Antoni, the Sun in Phoenix could finally be setting. They have a talented rotation, led by two-time MVP point guard Steve Nash and All-Star power forward Amare Stoudemire, but if injuries hit the team, the depth looks bleak. Grant Hill and Shaquille O’Neal could take big hits in production this upcoming season, and I don’t think both will be able to play over 60 games. This isn’t the team of the past few years, with the fun run & gun style preferred by D’Antoni, and new head coach Terry Porter could make some changes with the offensive system this coming season. They’re no longer going to dominate the regular season; in fact, I see winning a little less than 50 games a real possibility for the upcoming season. The Suns are no longer an elite team in the Western Conference, and their title hopes are likely vanquished unless they can manage to stay healthy a full season and have enough left in the tank for the playoffs, and by some miracle knock out three top Western Conference opponents, which I don’t see possible.

6. San Antonio Spurs (50-32, 3rd Place Southwest Division)- The main reason I have San Antonio ranked so low is that the Spurs are not a regular season team anymore, and though they managed to pull of 56 wins last season I have some concerns as to whether they will be able to handle losing one of the big three for an extended period of time, and though they have inserted some youth this coming season, rookie George Hill and the young Ian Mahinmi will need some developing to do, and if one of the big three drop, I see the team going on a losing streak. The Spurs should still be happy with a 49-win season, and this doesn’t mean I’m excluding them from the possibility of winning a championship, but I think the Western Conference has gotten so strong that it will be tough for them to finish with a record like they did last season, but they will definitely bring their all come playoff time. I hope they prove me wrong, but I’m thinking they won’t be in the top three again next season.

7. T-Dallas Mavericks (48-34, 4th Place Southwest Division)- Dallas doesn’t look like they have what it takes to compete with the elite anymore, unless they make a trade or two. Kidd will get a full season to prove doubters wrong, but I see Dallas coming a little short of 50 wins next year, and I don’t think they’ve got it in them to knock off a 2 or 3 seed. They’re loaded with depth, which could help them next year, and new coach Rick Carlisle could get this team back to the top of the Western Conference, so there’s the chance they finish with 50+ wins and perhaps a little higher in their division. They didn’t make any big changes this offseason other than signing DeSegana Diop, so I’m expecting more of what I saw towards the end of the season.

8. T-Portland Trail Blazers (48-34, 2nd Place Northwest Division)- I think Portland has the depth to go far this coming season, and will be able to win anywhere between 40-50 wins. If Oden comes on strong (which I don’t expect for a little while, he could struggle with foul trouble and rookie mistakes early; I don’t see him looking like a prodigy just yet) and Bayless can contribute at point guard, this team has the tools to make the playoffs as the 8th seed, perhaps higher. They’ve got a young leader in Brandon Roy, who can drop 20/5/5 any given night, a talented power forward in Lamarcus Aldridge who is a threat for 20/8, and a solid supporting cast in Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, Joel Przybilla, and the two rookies I mentioned before. Spaniard guard Rudy Fernandez will also be joining the Trail Blazers roster this upcoming season, and he could make an impact scoring off the bench. Experience isn’t a huge issue, as Oden, Bayless, and Fernandez are likely the only ones to have battles with it (more so Oden than the others since he’s going to have to learn how to defend centers in the post, which is a little harder than playing in a backcourt that features Brandon Roy and an experienced Steve Blake), and once this team starts to gel, look for them to make a big push at the end of the season and make the playoffs.

9. Los Angeles Clippers (47-35, 3rd Place Pacific Division)- Had the Clippers been able to keep forward Elton Brand, they would be a little higher on my rankings. However, they had to settle for Nuggets center Marcus Camby, who will give the Clippers another great shot blocker in the the post. I think this team’s good enough to make the playoffs, though I see the young Trail Blazers beating them out for a spot. It could really go either way, I see Portland being able to go on some impressive streaks and they could have the edge. Injury concerns could also hamper the Clippers’ chances, who aren’t as deep as the Trail Blazers. L.A. could be a surprise team this year, so don’t take this as me dissing them; they’ve got a team that could be very good and they have a strong chance at making the playoffs next season.

10. Golden State Warriors (46-36, 4th Place Pacific Division)- The Warriors took a hit this offseason by losing point guard Baron Davis and swingman Mickael Pietrus, but they were able to make some solid additions as well, by bringing in Corey Maggette, Marcus Williams, and Ronnie Turiaf to add some depth and defense to the roster, as well as locking up their own restricted free agents in Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, and Kelenna Azubuike. Golden State looks to be worse than they were last season, but they’ve still got the potential to make the playoffs, and will compete with the Clippers, Portland, Denver, and possibly Dallas for the final spot.

11. Denver Nuggets (44-38, 3rd Place Northwest Division)- The Nuggets took an even bigger hit on the defensive side of the ball this offseason by losing center Marcus Camby, as well as energetic forward Eduardo Najera. Chris Anderson has been the only addition to help improve that area so far, and that’s not enough at this point. The Nuggets have the $10 million exception from the Camby trade to use, so they could bring in another player that way, but I don’t see what kind of move will make up for what they lost in Camby. Guard Allen Iverson could also end up traded this coming season, as the Melo/A.I. experiment didn’t go according to plan. Iverson’s contract ends this season, so they’ll likely want to get something out of him instead of just losing him altogether. One thing’s pretty certain in my mind: They’re unlikely to get that 8th playoff spot in the West next year.

12. Sacramento Kings (32-50, Last Place Pacific Division)- Didn’t really know how many wins to give the Kings here; they were able to amass 38 in the tough Western Conference, which I found impressive, but that is likely going to be a tough thing to accomplish again. The Kings lost second-leading scorer Ron Artest recently in a trade with the Rockets, and are looking to trade center Brad Miller as well, so the Kings should take a hit in the win column this upcoming season. I still think they have the potential to win 30+, but it’ll be much tougher than last year. I see the Kings winning a little over 30, as this year could partially be a rebuilding year in the post, with Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson likely to see a lot of action now, and I don’t know if they’ll be able to handle it just yet.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54, 4th Place Northwest Division)- I expect another poor season from the Timberwolves, though the additions of Kevin Love and Mike Miller, along with a healthy Randy Foye, should help them win some more games. If the Timberwolves can remain healthy for the majority of the season, I think they have a chance to compete with the Kings for the 12th spot in the West; Minnesota has Foye, Miller, Love, Jefferson, and Gomes, a solid group that could lead them to surprise a lot of people this upcoming season. I still see them being in the bottom three in the West, but they’ve definitely improved and they’ll be able to lessen the gap a little between themselves and other Western Conference teams (though I still think they’ll be mediocre).

14. Memphis Grizzlies (23-57, Last Place Southwest Division)- The Grizzlies haven’t really improved much this offseason, as O.J. Mayo probably won’t bring a whole lot more than Mike Miller brought to the team last season. They still have zero post presence (unless rookie Darrell Arthur or veteran Darko Milicic can break out) since giving Pau Gasol to the Lakers, and their perimeter game isn’t enough to win them a lot of games. Memphis has a bleak outlook for the upcoming season, and I see them finishing with the 2nd or possibly even worst record in the West.

15. Oklahoma City (21-57, Last Place Northwest Division)- The Barons/Marshalls/Whatever they’re going to be named don’t have a very promising season ahead. So far they haven’t added anyone that’s going to take pressure away from Kevin Durant right away, as former UCLA guard Russell Westbrook was their only major addition up to this point in the offseason, and the free agent market isn’t very promising either. KD35 is likely going to have to go through another season carrying the team on his back, and don’t expect his field goal percentage to rise significantly. Much of the same can be expected from him, and because the Sonics haven’t improved, they’re looking at another season at the bottom of the Western Conference.

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