What Would Wall Street Do: The NFL Gambling Power Ranks

Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse more stories
What Would Wall Street Do: The NFL Gambling Power Ranks

Icon

 

 

 

 

The Oakland Raiders are 4-8. They are in the woeful AFC West. And they are in the top half of teams in the league. At least so say the Gambling Rankings, my new moniker for the financial rankings. Here are the overall rankings:

The Gamblers'
Power Rankings
1 NE  
2 DAL +1
3 IND -1
4 PIT +1
5 GB -1
6 SEA  
7 NYG  
8 SD +3
9 MIN +6
10 TB +2
11 CLE -3
12 JAC -2
13 DET -4
14 ARI +2
15 OAK +3
16 PHI -2
17 CIN -4
18 HOU -1
19 NO  
20 CAR +2
21 WAS -1
22 TEN +1
23 CHI -2
24 NYJ +5
25 BUF  
26 DEN -2
27 STL +3
28 BAL -2
29 KC -2
30 SF -2
31 ATL  
32 MIA  

So the big surprises: Oakland in the top ten, Tennessee on the bottom, and Jacksonville is almost mediocre. Wha?

First, it's important to understand how the rankings are made. These rankings measure a combination of Sharpe and alpha. After last week's Sharpe tweaks, these metrics are derived as follows:

  • Sharpe measures how much a team outperforms its expected spread, and how consistently it does so. Basically, it is a measure of how much better a team is than it's statistics. This is weighted as 80% of the rankings.
  • Alpha measures a team's points scored to statistical score ratio, and the consistent level of that ratio. It indicates that, while on paper a team may seem good, their week to week output may not be consistently high. This is weighted as 20% of the rankings.
It is important to remember that a team is HURT by performing outside expectations.  This is why you see a drop in Baltimore's rank despite a stellar performance on Monday night.  Statistically, Jacksonville was expected to not only cover against Indy (NFL-What_Would_Wall_Street_Do_NFL_Week_13_Best_Bets-291107">see Week 13's Best Bets article), but to WIN outright.  Which explains the drop in their rank.  When you combine consistency with expected performance, you get a very different landscape of the league.
Oakland is the perfect example. On paper, they look pretty terrible:

OFFENSE DEFENSE
PTS PTS
19.5 21.7
(21st) (17th)
YDS YDS
308.3 334.1
(21st) (19th)
PASS YDS PASS YDS
173.3 186.1
(30th) (5th)
RUSH YDS RUSH YDS
135 148
(4th) (30th)

(stats courtesy of NFL.com)
But no matter what the NFL says, how does Oakland play against it's own expectations?  Pretty freakin' well, actually.  So freakin' well, it's in the top 10 of alpha and beta, and top half of sharpe (see below).  So what do we expect from Oakland?  Losses virtually every week.  And the Box is 9 - 3 (yes, NINE AND THREE) picking Oakland (for or against).  So are they bad?  Yes.  Are they predictable?  Hell yes.  Is that good for the money?  Abso-freakin'-lutely.
  Sharpe Alpha Beta
Team Rank Rank Rank
ARI 12 13 20
ATL 30 32 31
BAL 29 19 9
BUF 25 30 19
CAR 23 12 5
CHI 20 29 32
CIN 21 5 7
CLE 14 7 26
DAL 3 1 1
DEN 27 25 18
DET 17 6 4
GB 5 11 21
HOU 18 10 14
IND 2 3 3
JAC 7 27 27
KC 28 31 30
MIA 32 17 23
MIN 10 15 11
NE 1 2 12
NO 16 24 29
NYG 13 4 2
NYJ 24 14 17
OAK 15 9 10
PHI 11 22 25
PIT 4 8 6
SD 9 18 28
SEA 6 16 13
SF 31 23 8
STL 26 28 15
TB 8 26 24
TEN 22 21 22
WAS 19 20 16

In fact, they make the top 10 for Alpha and Beta (volatility)!
 
So while I wait to list the best bets later today, take a look at this week's rankings and let me know if you see anything worth discussing.
 
 
For more information and deeper analysis, please see Mental Handicap, the hedge fund of NFL betting.
 
Load More Stories

Follow Oakland Raiders from B/R on Facebook

Follow Oakland Raiders from B/R on Facebook and get the latest updates straight to your newsfeed!

Out of Bounds

Oakland Raiders

Subscribe Now

We will never share your email address

Thanks for signing up.