The Astros were involved in another low scoring game last night as the opener of this series had just three runs scored. That makes it 9-0 to the ‘Under’ in Houston’s last nine games as both the offense and the pitching have contributed to this run. What this streak does for us is that is gives us value in the total and the markets have to keep this number down based on the fact that people ride these trends.
St. Louis has now gone two straight games with the ‘Under’ coming in as it has scored a total of two runs over this span. The Cardinals offense is much better than this and they should have a golden opportunity to bust out tonight. The ‘Over’ is 7-1 in the Cardinals last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.
When looking at this pitching matchup, namely Chris Carpenter, one looks at the under and that is a logical way to go. However, there have been more high scoring games than low scoring games in Carpenter’s starts this season and that is where we are getting the value. The Cardinals have gone ‘Over’ in 15 of his 27 starts on the season including eight of 12 on the road. Also, the ‘Over’ is 9-2 in Carpenter’s last 11 starts against teams with a losing record.
Wandy Rodriguez has been on a roll as he has tossed seven consecutive quality outings while allowing one run or fewer in six of those games. Despite this, the ‘Under’ is only 4-3 as the bullpen has ruined a lot of those games and the offense has shown some signs of life. He now faces a team that he has struggles against recently as he has posted a 7.17 ERA against over his last four starts dating back to last season. St. Louis is 11-3 to the ‘Over’ this season against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.25 and 1.35.
The Cardinals are 11-2 to the ‘Over’ in Carpenter’s 13 starts as a favorite between -125 and -175 this season. Conversely, the Astros are 10-3 to the ‘Over’ in Rodriguez’ 13 starts as an underdog between +100 and +150 this season. 3* Over St. Louis Cardinals/Houston Astros