US Open 2010: Men's and Women's Draw Preview and Analysis
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US Open—New York
The challenges of playing two weeks of New York City tennis can become daunting at best. The Billie Jean King National Tennis Center remains nestled away in the heart of Queens, while traveling to and from the event is unlike any other tournament stop throughout the season.
Although the seven train will take you right to the doorsteps of all the action, the players, pundits and fans alike must be willing to deal with the hustle and bustle that only the Big Apple can provide. Rowdy crowds, and expensive french fries become overshadowed by the 40 arches of Grand Slam chaos. With a story to be told on every court and at every food and retail booth on-site, this year's Open could be one of the most memorable.
Although defending men's champ Juan Martin del Potro won't be present because of a persistent wrist injury, and women's top seed Serena Williams remains sidelined by a freak foot accident, the 256 men and women who have completed the singles fields will be eager to step up, and steal the overpowering spotlight of the year's final Major.
While Rafael Nadal continues to claw his way toward his first title in New York, Caroline Wozniacki will attempt to prove that she's worthy of the top seed, and that her finals appearance of a year ago was no fluke. Roger Federer will be adamant on continuing the steam that he created during the summer hard-court swing, and defending champ Kim Clijsters wants nothing more than to stand on the champions podium (once again) with her daughter Jada on the final Sunday.
Who's Your US Open Favorite
In search of their first Slam titles, Andy Murray, and Jelena Jankovic will be hot the heels of the naysayers, while attempting to prove that their hard-court games stack up against the best players in the world. Fan favorites such and Fernando Verdasco and Elena Dementieva have struggled in recent months, but their baseline proficiency will be feared throughout the fortnight.
Could there be another Melanie Oudin or John Isner moment at this year's event; moments that would reign supreme in the hearts of tennis fans for the foreseeable future?
It will be hot, and it will cool down when the second week hits, but what will inevitably be the focus of the largest annually attended sporting event in the world remains the electricity and anticipation of the night matches, the ruckus crowds, and the potential emergence or reestablishment of an upcoming or current star.
Let's now take a look at each draw, and the respective favorites and dark horse candidates.
Men's Draw:
Nadal Quarter:
There are no battered knees or torn abdominal muscles to hinder the world's top ranked player at this year's event, but Nadal will enter his title bid a tad under rehearsed. Losing before the finals of both hard-court Masters 1000 events this summer, Nadal's form was anything but clay-esque or even grass-esque on the asphalt.
Beginning his campaign against Teymuraz Gabashvili, Nadal could face Philipp Kohlschreiber in a third-round encounter. I watched Nadal take on Kohlschreiber live at the Rogers Cup, and even though the German led by a set, I never felt that Nadal was in trouble of losing the match. There are a few players on the circuit that can defeat Nadal with a one-handed backhand, and although Kohlschreiber has one of the best backhands in the business, he can get tight when the ball is hit over his shoulder.
Ernests Gulbis lurks at the bottom of this quarter, but an even greater threat to the Spaniard at this point could be No. 31 seed David Nalbandian. Lifting his form after two Davis Cup singles victories, Nalbandian has been on a tear as of late, which was highlighted by capturing the Washington event. The Argentine possesses exactly the type of baseline trickery that can halt Nadal in his tracks, and a deep run by the former top three player is certainly possible.
Fernando Verdasco is the highest seeded player after Nadal in this section, but the muscular Spaniard has seen a drop in form since his tedious clay-court season. Add to the fact that Verdasco recently changed racket companies while recording a 4-6 Tour record since Roland Garros, and the No. 8 seed could be headed for a shorter than expected trip in New York.
Nadal may have trouble winning this event, but his chances of reaching the quarters and potentially facing Nalbandian seem more than likely.
First-round match to watch for: David Ferrer vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Pick: Nadal
Federer Quarter:
Eager to prove that he's still the man to beat on hard-courts, Federer will begin his New York journey against journeyman Brian Dabul. Sparring with Dabul on countless occasions in the past, Federer won't show any compassion toward his No. 94 ranked opponent.
Federer's good fortune in the section would likely take him to the quarterfinal round unscathed, but a potential showdown with No. 5 seed Robin Soderling could bring forth a few interesting dynamics.
A story that got quickly thrown under the rug last year while del Potro won his first title featured Federer's match against Soderling in the quarterfinals. The Swede played awful in the first two sets, but ended up winning the third set, while forcing a fourth set tiebreak. Soderling's inability to cope with the wind, coupled with Federer's great footwork, would end his tournament.
Soderling's game is vulnerable on a fast hard-court because of the quick bounce and skid of the surface, and he won't have the luxury of taking roundhouse cuts at his forehand the way he did against Federer at the French Open.
Federer's slice backhand and eastern return grips are tailor made for the Open, and that should be more than good enough to keep his quarterfinal, and new semifinal streak alive.
Look for Marin Cilic to potentially get hot after a horrible second half of the season, but it's unlikely that a repeat of his quarterfinal finish of a year ago will be achieved.
Pick: Federer
Djokovic Quarter:
Djokovic surely wasn't pleased after he mused over his quarter of the draw. Potentially facing two of the more successful players this summer, Djokovic will have more than the heat of the first week to deal with.
Starting off with good friend Viktor Troicki, Djokovic could face the shot-gun serving of German Philipp Petzschner in the second-round. James Blake and Juan Monaco could become potential third-round opponents for the Serb, but neither player has shown any recent form that would indicate an upset.
With the fourth-round well in reach for Djokovic, American Mardy Fish or Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis could be waiting. Both players have had delectable summers on Tour, while finding comfort with the hard-courts under their sneakers. Fish, who will enter New York having won 16 of his past 18 matches since Wimbledon, remains the most dangerous player in the draw ranked outside the top 10. Defeating a who's who list of ATP stars during the first part of August, Fish could finish off the month in style, and begin September with the tournament of his life.
Baghdatis will also be one to watch in NYC, but his decision to play New Haven last week could leave him fatigued for the early rounds.
Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko will attempt to put recent injury and illness behind them, while smacking their serves and forehands on their favorite surface.
Roddick showed some life in Cincinnati last week by reaching the semifinals, and he'll need to be ready to fight for his life during the early rounds. Some have suggested that Roddick's draw appears easy to start—I would agree with those sentiments through his first two rounds—but a third-round match against Gael Monfils could get complicated, and a fourth-round tussle with Davydenko is never a gimme.
Although Roddick does lead Davydenko 5-1 in career head-to-head meetings, he does trail Monfils 4-3. Putting aside previous meetings against either man, I do believe that Roddick's inability to punish either his forehand or backhand wing won't allow him to defeat bigger or clean ball strikers.
His serve will only take him so far.
With that being said, I've enjoyed watching Fish find his potential after a long haul on Tour, and his time appears to be now or never for a big result. Fish's road to the semifinals won't be easy; he'll have to likely take out Djokovic and Roddick along the way, but the American is playing with a greater sense of urgency these days, and he's not backing off from bringing his heat on the big points.
Look for Fish to embrace his serve and backhand, along with the New York crowd.
Pick: Fish
Murray Quarter:
The tenacious Scot will once again begin what he hopes is a maiden Grand Slam victory. Reaching the Open final in 2008, Murray has continued to stay in the hard-court conversation for a number of years, but his inability to amp up his game against the heavier hitters has cost him. To Murray's credit, though, he did show signs of a more potent plan of attack in capturing the Toronto event, while dusting Nadal and Federer in successive straight set matches.
This is Grand Slam action however, and Murray's innate arsenal of passive play will not work over a two week span.
Beginning his event against talented Slovak player Lukas Lacko, Murray could face either Stanislas Wawrinka or Wimbledon quarterfinalist Yen-Hsun Lu in the third-round. I can't foresee Murray struggling to reach the fourth-round, where an interesting encounter against Sam Querrey could take place.
Murray did lose to Querrey in the Los Angeles final, and once again succumbed to the pace of a harder hitting opponent. Querrey has shown jitters in the past when playing the bigger events, and there's no question that it doesn't get any bigger than the US Open.
Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych resides as the tournament's No. 7 seed, and it should be noted that hard-courts are indeed his favorite surface. Showing the type of consistency this season that was envisioned for him in his teens, Berdych will be a tough opponent for anyone to face if he's on.
John Isner remains the wildcard pick in this section, but his bum ankle will likely force him to withdraw.
With Isner not posing a threat for Berdych, I'd say that this section will likely follow the seedings.
If Berdych and Murray do face off, it will be interesting to see if the Scot is willing step out of his comfort zone and lace his groundstrokes with conviction, or, will he allow Berdych to control the tempo.
Will Murray even have a choice?
Something tells me, though, that Murray will find a way to break down Berdych's demeanor, and avenge his French Open defeat.
Pick: Murray
Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Nalbandian; Murray vs. Berdych; Roddick vs. Fish; Federer vs. Soderling
Semifinals: Nadal vs. Murray; Fish vs. Federer
Finals: Murray vs. Federer
Champion: Federer
***
Women's Draw:
Wozniacki Quarter:
Returning to the site of her first Major final, top seed Wozniacki will have a boat load of stern competitors in her path if she intends on reaching the second weekend.
Beginning with US youngster Chelsey Gullickson, Wozniacki could face either Aravane Rezai or Maria Sharapova in fourth-round action. While Rezai can rival Wozniacki in on-court intensity, former champ Sharapova remains one of the hardest hitters on the circuit.
My concerns for Wozniacki coming into the event stem from her hectic schedule. Playing virtually every week on Tour, the Danish roadrunner is bound to hit the wall at some point. However, Wozinacki has played some stellar tennis as of late, and a potential clash with Sharapova would be a proverbial popcorn match.
Although Sharapova has improved her play this year, her forehand and tight serve could break down against Wozniacki's backboard game.
Svetlana Kuznetsova will be a name to watch in the section, and her first-round match against Kimiko Date Krumm will pose a difficult challenge. Still, I like the way Kuznetsova manages her game on hard-courts, and her clay-court foundation has always transitioned well in New York.
Na Li remains the highest seed in this section after Wozniacki, and her road to a potential quarterfinal spot appears largely unchallenged. Apart from Kuznetsova in her path, Li should advance past the likes of Anna Chakvetadze, Yaroslava Shvedova, and Maria Kirilenko.
Li did reach the quarterfinals last year—losing to Clijsters—and another final eight run should be achieved by the No. 8 seed.
I wouldn't however bet against Wozniacki's ability to grind through matches. She may not possess the biggest backhand or the the most violent serve in the business, but her game does hold up well under pressure, and that's what Grand Slam action is all about.
Pick: Wozniacki
Clijsters Quarter:
The defending champ will be riding the good vibe of taking home her second title in New York during her comeback last year. Clijsters does have a year of rhythm coming into the event this time around, and her draw for the most part appears manageable. Starting off against Greta Arn, Clijsters could face either Ana Ivanovic or No. 13 seed Marian Bartoli in the fourth-round. Ivanovic has shown signs of her old self in recent months, but her ball toss and nervous energy remain far too detrimental for a deep march.
Bartoli on the other hand has shown the ability to portray herself as one of the best competitors on Tour. Her ability to close out matches has been questionable in the past, but her desire to prevail has never been in doubt.
Daniela Hantuchova will take on Dinara Safina in the best first-round match in this section, but in terms of challengers to knocking off Clijsters, I'd be more inclined to pick No. 12 seed Elena Dementieva.
Dementieva has been through it all on Tour: Bad serving, better serving, near wins, and devastating losses. To her credit, though, she's always seemed to handle her career with class, and her finals appearance in 2004 won't hurt her chances of reaching the second week.
However, Clijsters does hold the key to this event, and her familiarity with Ashe Stadium should help her against an overwhelmed opponent. Although Dementieva won't get distracted by the Center Court crowd, the zipping forehands and backhands of Clijsters would get her attention early and often.
Pick: Clijsters
Venus Williams Quarter:
Is spite of her sister missing the event with injury, Venus has popped on the radar once again to hopefully recapture her glory days of 2000 and 2001. The 30-year-old American has had a difficult time at the Majors this year, failing to advance past the quarterfinals in three previous attempts. However, apart from her overwhelming success at Wimbledon, the surface at the US Open remains the best for Venus' blistering serve, and flat ground game.
Beginning her road against Roberta Vinci, Venus could face Tsvetana Pironkova in the third-round (the women who defeated her at Wimbledon this year), with a potential showdown against No. 16 seed Shahar Peer in the round of 16.
Barring a forehand meltdown from Venus, she should remain in line for a likely quarterfinal contest against No. 10 seed Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka did sustain a blister during the Montreal event, but the spunky Bulgarian appears fit, and ready to pounce on a productive New York campaign.
Last year's tournament sensation Melanie Oudin is also in this section, but if recent results are any indicator, a first-round loss to a qualifier wouldn't be out of the question.
French Open champ Francesca Schiavone won back-to-back matches for the first time in Montreal since her triumph in Paris, but the hard-courts in North America have never been to her liking.
All in all, Venus was granted a great section to ease into the semifinals, and it would be truly shocking if that result did not take place.
Pick: Venus
Jankovic Quarter:
Needing a pick-me-up performance in a major way, Jankovic will enter New York with the ambition of bettering her 2008 finals result. Finding herself up against Simona Halep in the first-round, Jankovic could face last year's semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer in the round of 16.
Jankovic has always been a player that embraces the big stage, and she could provide the New York crowd with more than enough sparks if she faces Vera Zvonareva in the quarterfinals.
Zvonareva has held her mettle together this year better than in previous seasons, and that has led her to a top 10 ranking and a finals appearance at Wimbledon. She did play a horrendous match against Wozniacki in the finals of Montreal, but her come-from-behind victory over Clijsters in the quarterfinals proved that her ability to fight, and refrain from destroying anything in her path has improved.
Jankovic remains the favorite in the section, but Zvonareva has proven (for the time being, anyway) that her composed demeanor has translated into sparkling results.
First-round match to watch for: Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues. The knee-high socks of Mattek-Sands will get you every time.
Pick: Zvonareva
Quarterfinals: Wozniacki vs. Li; Jankovic vs. Zvonareva; Azarenka vs. Venus; Dementieva vs. Clijsters
Semifinals: Wozniacki vs. Zvonareva; Venus vs. Clijsters
Finals: Wozniacki vs. Clijsters
Champion: Clijsters
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