In a highly anticipated rematch of their controversial match-up at UFC 112, Frankie Edgar will be defending his title for the first time against the man whom he defeated to become the reigning Lightweight champion—B.J. Penn. Even though he is the champion, most look at Edgar as the underdog in this fight.
News flash everyone: Frankie beat B.J., regardless how the judges scored the fight. Someone would have to be crazy to say that Edgar is the underdog in this fight.
Now to raise a question: What can B.J. do this time around that he wasn't able to do in their previous fight?
The answer is simple—nothing.
If you look at Penn's body of work, wrestlers have been his kryptonite. Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre were all able to do what they do best—wrestle—to beat Penn.
While Frankie's wrestling might not be on the same level as Hughes' or St. Pierre's, he still has all the tools necessary to keep his belt and make a move to Welterweight look even more appealing to "The Prodigy".
When looking at this match, the first thing to jump out is the fact that Edgar was able to take Penn down. If he could do it the first time around, what is going to prevent him from doing it this time?
Also, what is going to stop Edgar from getting the better of B.J. while they are standing up?
A "motivated" Penn? Yeah, right.
Even the people who always question if we're going to see the "old Vitor" or "new Vitor" are getting tired of the whole "motivated or unmotivated B.J. Penn" argument.
So on to the nuts and bolts. How will Frankie Edgar be able to retain his title on Saturday? The answer is by using the K.I.S.S. method.
For those that don't know, that's an abbreviation for "keep it simple stupid."
All Frankie needs to do is what he does best, which is being a grinder. He needs to use his quickness to get in, land a few shots, and get out.
He needs to use that same quickness to create angles and make it more difficult for Penn to get the takedown, should he attempt to. Use those same angles to create his own openings to get the takedown.
Once he gets the takedown, Edgar can't make the mistake of laying in B.J.'s guard. Even though Frankie is a Purple belt in BJJ under Ricardo Almeida, there is no questioning who the better BJJ player is. Instead, keep postured up, drop some bombs to B.J.'s body, maybe one to his face, then get the hell out of dodge.
If Edgar does the smart thing and works the body, this will pay dividends come the third round. B.J. already has a questionable gas take as it is. Landing some body shots, both standing and on the ground, will only make the later rounds easier for Frankie to control.
So with all this said, B.J. will win the first two rounds, but not without taking some damage. This is when Frankie will capitalize on Penn's lack of cardio, go to work, and grind out the last three rounds to win a unanimous decision.
Frankie Edgar will walk into the Octagon and walk out of the Octagon as the undisputed UFC Lightweight champion.
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Think I'm crazy? Check out Joe Schafer's rebuttal.
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