Dodger's Series Preview (Aug 5-7)

First, a bit of an apology. I have not been completely on top of this blog, only updating every few days. I would like to get in the habit of updating every day or so, with bits and pieces from each game.

I was going to kick that off this series; however, I may have run into a road block. Yesterday, we had a bad thunderstorm (actually, three of them). My house lost power, and they aren't sure exactly how (in fact, the power went out three hours after the storm ended). I have to go elsewhere for internet access, so we will see how proactive I am for the next couple of days.

The Dodgers come into this series with a 56-55 (.505) record, one game behind Arizona for first place in the West. They have underperformed their Pythagorean record by 2.4 games (the sixth most underperforming team in MLB).

They score 4.18 runs per game (25th in MLB) and allow 3.95 runs per game (second in MLB). They are coming off a four-game split with Arizona in LA, losing the first two games 2-1 before winning the last two 4-2 and 9-3.

I will be honest, I am not that familiar with the Dodgers, so I will just go off of MLB.com's depth chart for this next assessment of VORP for the Dodger's starters:

PA/VORP is the amount of plate appearances the player needs to generate a run above what a replacement level player (freely available at the league minimum) would produce. For example, if Manny Ramirez and a replacement level player (averaged between all defensive positions) had 10.19 plate appearances, Manny would produce one more run.

Player	VORP	PA	PA/VORP
Ramirez, LF	43.0	438	10.19
Pierre, CF	1.8	331	183.89
Kemp, RF	26.1	441	16.90
Blake, 3B	4.3	35	8.14
Berroa, SS	-4.9	115	------
Kent, 2B	3.2	370	115.63
Loney, 1B	21.2	450	21.23
Martin, C	27.6	448	16.23
Total	122.3	2628	21.49

And here are the Cardinal's starters:

Player	VORP	PA	PA/VORP
Schumaker, LF	18.3	421	23.01
Ankiel, CF	29.8	389	13.05
Ludwick, RF	42.4	415	9.79
Glaus, 3B	26.4	466	17.65
Izturis, SS	-3.2	296	-------
Miles, 2B	10.8	300	27.78
Pujols, 1B	57.5	434	7.55
Molina, C	12.2	370	30.33
Total	194.2	3091	15.92

You have to like our starters here. For the record, if Furcal was in the picture, it would be quite different. He has a 26.8 VORP in 154 PA. Then again, Furcal is always injured. As a side note, Furcal will (probably) be the top SS on the free agent market this winter, a market that the Cardinals will be shopping heavily.

Let's look at the SP:

Pitcher	W	L	ERA	VORP	IP	IP/VORP
Tuesday
Billingsly	11	9	3.05	36	138.7	3.85
Carpenter	0	0	2.25	1.5	4.0	2.67
Wednesday
Lowe	8	9	3.70	24.3	143.7	5.91
Pineiro	3	5	5.04	7.2	103.7	14.40
Thursday
Kershaw	1	3	4.02	10.0	53.7	5.37
Lohse	13	3	3.73	29.0	144.7	4.99

These stats are set up very similar to the batters, except I did them in terms of IP/VORP. In other words, if Billingsly and a replacement level pitcher pitched 3.85 innings, Billingsly would give up one less run.

This is not an earned runs stat, but a more complicated stat that tries to eliminate the effects of luck, fielders, and the ballpark. You have to like our edge in Tuesday and Thursday's games, whereas Wednesday will be tough to win. Overall, the Dodgers are at 4.78 IP/VORP and the Cardinals are at 6.69 IP/VORP for the series.

The best way for me to look at bullpen (or I guess the quickest) is in terms of PRAA (pitching runs above average). Keep in mind that these stats are comparing the players to an average MLB player, and not a replacement level player, so they are not interchangeable with the stats above.

The bullpen is at 57.45 PRAA for the Dodgers and 9.89 PRAA for the Cardinals.


My fearless prediction: The Cards take Games 1 and 3, with the Dodgers winning Game 2.

The key to the series will be to have our starters go long and to keep Manny in check.