Why Athletic Directors Should Schedule All Cupcakes

A two-loss Kansas would have gone to the Cotton Bowl, while Missouri would have traveled to Miami for a BCS berth.

In 2000, Miami was punished for respectable scheduling.  The Canes' only loss was at Washington, yet they were left out of the BCS title game in favor of Florida State.  This was the same Florida State team the Canes beat during the season.

The BCS formula not only chose the head-to-head loser, but gave no reward to the Canes for going out of conference for two tough games, including against No. 1 (at the time) FSU.

As in many other years, the BCS formula was “tweaked” after the Canes got the short end of the stick.  However, until “tweaked” is synonymous with “overhauled” or “replaced with a playoff,” then I don't care what their new formula is.  It could still happen again.

Here are some other notable situations over the past 10 years that support scheduling football prostitutes.

Kansas State 1998: Was one overtime in Big 12 Championship Game from the BCS title game despite scheduling Indiana State, Northern Illinois, and Louisiana Monroe.

Virginia Tech 1999: Played in the BCS title game.  Their nonconference games were I-AA James Madison, Alabama-Birmingham, (6-6) Clemson, and (7-5) Virginia.  Their conference schedule was widely regarded as the weakest of the BCS conferences.  They were one of two undefeated teams from BCS conferences, so were all but guaranteed a berth.

Auburn 2004: The only BCS conference team to go undefeated and be left out of the BCS title game.  However, their schedule didn't keep them out.  Auburn's schedule was ranked No. 5, while Oklahoma and USC's schedules were ranked No. 11 and No. 18, respectively.

The schedule was ranked highly in spite of the fact that Auburn played Louisiana Monroe, Louisiana Tech, and The Citadel outside of SEC play.  If they had substituted a top-ten team for D I-AA The Citadel, their strength of schedule still would not have been enough to get them in the BCS title game.

Oklahoma and USC started No. 1 and No. 2 and finished No. 1 and No. 2—and there wasn't anything Auburn could have done to stop it.

One or two glamorous nonconference games will not be enough to dramatically change a strength of schedule factor for a team, because schedule strength is predominantly influenced by conference games—the same conference games teams will play regardless of any extracurricular scheduling.

In six of the 10 BCS years (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, and 2007), a one-loss team has played in the BCS title game.  I am certain that if any team in a BCS conference had stayed undefeated through any schedule during those years, that undefeated team would have played for the BCS title instead.

Ohio State and USC are pleasing the college football world this September, but neither team stands to gain nearly as much as it stands to lose.  A November conference loss will still bump the winner out of one of the top two BCS spots.

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