Fantasy Football Draft Preview: Five Injuries and Suspensions to Reap

Injuries and suspensions are usually a very bad thing when coming into the NFL season, both for the franchise and your fantasy football team. But, if capitalized correctly, they can be beneficial.

 

Look at it from an economics perspective. After all, that’s what fantasy football is – It’s determining the value and risk/reward of each player and assessing their worth. The following five players have either suffered an injury or they are healthy players serving suspensions. The old expression in the stock market is, “Buy low and sell high.”

 

Well, these players all can be bought or selected lower than their value. Scoop them up, sit on them like an investment, and reap the benefits when they return to the field.

Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets

Why to Buy Low: The 2009 Super Bowl MVP, Santonio Holmes, has hit hard times. In April, Holmes was suspended for the first four weeks of the 2010 season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Shortly after, he was traded away from the team he helped win a Super Bowl (The Steelers) to the New York Jets. Holmes, coming off a career year, is going around the tenth round and about 100^th overall, according to kffl.com. He is also playing on a team that has a young quarterback in Mark Sanchez and is primarily a run-first team that already has a number one receiver in Braylon Edwards – Sounds like the Steelers a couple years back, right?

 

Why He’ll Be Worth More: Despite all the distractions, Holmes is talented. He’s coming off a 2009 campaign where he caught 79 balls for 1,248 yards and five touchdowns. He’s never had less than 821 yards in his four-year career. There are doubts about Sanchez’ ability to pass the ball and Rex Ryan’s ability to give permission to pass the ball, but Holmes could prove to be a valuable flex player and possible number two receiver on your team if the Jets incorporate him. And he can be drafted after you already have your starters.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Why to Buy Low: Big Ben’s story is a little more troubling. The Super Bowl champ has been slapped on the wrist for sexually assaulting yet another girl. The punishment? Six game suspension. To make matters worse, Roethlisberger will be without one of his favorite targets this season, Santonio Holmes, when he does return and is playing behind a line that has been banged up.

 

Why He’ll Be Worth More: The 2009 season was good to Big Ben, statistically speaking. Despite being sacked 50 times, he posted a career high in yardage (4,328) and tossed for 26 touchdowns. Managed expectations, however, when Roethlisberger does return, he isn’t going to be your starter (Unless your starter is REALLY bad). Most likely, Big Ben is going to prove to be an excellent waiver wire pick up when your starter is in his bye week or a matchup player, a player you start when there is a favorable matchup. If you are in a quarterback-heavy league, drafting Big Ben won’t be crazy. If you aren’t, wait until you get your bye week – Provided it is after week six – and snatch him up then.

Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers

Why to Buy Low: Jackson, the Chargers top receiver, is one of the riskiest players in the league. What we know: Jackson will for sure serve a three game suspension due to violating the league’s personal conduct policy. What could happen: Jackson isn’t happy with his contract, he is threatening to hold out until week 10, which is the longest a player can hold out if they want to have this season count toward free agency, or the entire season. Word around the camp fire is the Chargers gave him permission to speak to the Seahawks about a possible trade, according to NFL.com news. That would devalue him even more.

 

Why He’ll Be Worth More: As much of a headache Jackson has provided the Chargers front office staff this offseason, he works wonders on the field. Jackson had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2009 and 2008. Despite having red zone talents Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson on the squad during those years, the 6-foot-5 Jackson still caught 16 touchdowns over the course of those two seasons. Also, Jacskon has improved his yardage totals every season he has been in the NFL. If he does end his holdout, he is easily a low-number one receiver, high number-two receiver on your fantasy team. And he’s going in the 7^th round in most leagues, according to kffl.com.  

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

Why to Buy Low: Welker is coming off of a nasty knee injury and, consequently, no one is 100 percent sure when he will be 100 percent himself. Randy Moss is the cemented number one receiver and the go-to guy on the roster. The emergence of Julian Edleman is also threatening Welker’s value.

 

Why He’ll Be Worth More: Don’t count this guy out. He's a yards machine, posting more than 1,300 yards in 14 games last season. He’s an undrafted, undersized receiver who has proved all critics wrong during his short six-year career. If Welker says he’s getting better, I believe him. He might not be all-star caliber in week one. But he will be when the Pats are competing for the playoffs. Which, coincidentally, will be during your playoff run.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos

Why to Buy Low: The former Georgia Bulldog didn’t exactly have a stellar rookie season. Sure, he managed more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage and scored a total of nine touchdowns. But, he never had more than 100 yards in a game (you read that right) and had a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry. To make matters worse, Correll Buckhalter is over his shoulder and Moreno suffered a hamstring injury, sidelining him for the rest of the preseason.

 

Why He’ll Be Worth More: Moreno is going to be back for week one and when he does, the Broncos are going to give him the rock. Rookie Tim Tebow and recent pickup Lendale White might leech some of his touchdowns, but Moreno will most likely rush for more than 1,000 yards and even get a game or two over 100. He will be an excellent second or third rusher on your fantasy team.