AL East: 10 Players Who Hold the Keys to the Division Title

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For most of the season, either the New York Yankees or the Tampa Bay Rays have had the best record in baseball. It's August 23rd, and not much has changed since May.

The Yankees stand a game up in the AL East, with a 77-47 record. The Rays are right behind them at 76-48. The teams have the best and second best records in baseball, as well as the best and second best run differentials in the majors.

But this isn't just a three team race. While the Rays and Yankees remain favorites, the Red Sox are still within striking distance, just 6.5 games out. If they can climb back into things, the AL East will be a three team race for just two playoff spots.

What players will have the biggest impact in determining the fate of these three teams? Let's take a look.

Alex Rodriguez, Yankees

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Alex Rodriguez has been the Yankees best player for so many years. But in 2010, age seems to have caught up to the three-time MVP just a bit.

Though Rodriguez is second in baseball in RBI, he clearly hasn't been himself. He's hit just .265 on the season, and combined with his lowest walk rate since 1998, his OBP is just .333, a full season low. His power also hasn't been there, as he has just 21 home runs on the season. It's been a down year for offensive baseball as a whole, but something else is clearly wrong with A-Rod. 

To make matters worse, A-Rod was placed on the 15-day DL on Saturday.

The Yankees have the best record in baseball, and have reached this point without a significant contribution from Alex. But with the rotation in such poor shape, more offense may be needed to win the East. Rodriguez is clearly a place where this team can improve. He's driven in 97 runs this season despite an .818 OPS. Imagine how scary the offense would be if Alex started to hit? He should be back on September 5th. Hopefully he brings his old bat, or something resembling his old bat with him.

Evan Longoria, Rays

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It's incredible to think that, as good as the Rays are, they rank fourth in their division in runs scored. The Rays have a good lineup, but it certainly hasn't been their strength this season. Sitting in the middle of the lineup, Evan Longoria has really carried this team offensively, along with a certain outfielder to be named latter.

Longoria's third full season has been just as good as his second. While his power has been down just a bit, he's continued to improve his approach at the plate, and his batting average and OBP have both risen. Longoria is also one of the best defensive third baseman in the league, but it's really his bat that the Rays need the most.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

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When Josh Beckett signed a four year deal this past off-season, many (myself included) considered it a bargain for the Red Sox. Beckett was a legitimate ace, he was still fairly young, and the Red Sox were paying less for him than they had paid for John Lackey.

But Beckett has had a nightmare of a season. He struggled mightily out of the gate, missed a couple of months in the middle of the season due to injury, and after a few solid starts in July, has an ERA over 6.00 in the month of August.

But there are signs of life here. Beckett has struck out 24 batters and walked just five in 24 innings in the month of August. While his ERA is high, his BABIP of .364 seems to be the culprit. Expecting the Beckett of old down the stretch might be a bit much. But he should be able to help a Red Sox rotation that has really hurt the team all season. 

AJ Burnett, Yankees

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The Yankees biggest weakness this season has been the back end of their rotation. While CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes have pitched relatively well this year, the final two spots have been an adventure. With Pettitte injured and Hughes reaching his innings limit for the year, someone needs to step up.

The Yankees paid Burnett like an ace following the 2008 season, and Burnett has fallen flat on his face. While 2009 wasn't too bad, and he pitched well in the playoffs, 2010 has been a nightmare. Burnett's control has always been spotty, but now his strikeouts have disappeared. In his last start, Burnett gave up six earned runs.

The Yankees rotation once looked like a strength, but may now be their biggest weakness. With one of the best lineups in baseball and a resurgent bullpen, good starting pitching could make them unstoppable. But if Burnett doesn't step things up, the Yankees could be in trouble.

Carl Crawford, Rays

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Arguably the Rays best player this season, Carl Crawford is having a career year with free agency looming this offseason.

Crawford is hitting .299 with 40 stolen bases on the season, and is playing some of the best defense in the league. He's also hit for more power than we've ever seen from him before.

Unfortunately, Crawford has had a poor month of August, hitting .253 for the month and stealing just two bases. If the Rays want home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, they really need their star left fielder to get things going.

Javy Vazquez, Yankees

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As with Burnett, more was expected of Vazquez when the Yankees re-acquired him entering 2010. Vazquez was coming off a near-Cy Young campaign in 2009, and hopes were high that his second stint with the Yankees would go much better than his first. It hasn't.

Through 23 starts this season, Vazquez has an ERA over 5.00. He didn't even make it out of the fourth inning on Saturday.

With Pettitte's injury, Vazquez really needs to prove that he can pitch in New York. If he and Burnett both struggle, the Yankees could be left with a major handicap down the stretch.

John Lackey, Red Sox

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When Lackey signed a monster contract with the Red Sox this past off-season, the team undoubtedly thought they were getting the front-rotation starter Lackey was in Los Angeles. But nothign has gone right for the Red Sox starter this season.

A 4.62 ERA on the season is bad. Lackey's lack of strike outs—just under six per nine innings, compared to over seven for his career—is also deeply troubling.

Still, there have been some signs of hope. Lackey had a solid June and July, and while August has been bad from an ERA point of view, the strikeouts finally seem to be there.

The Red Sox might be in first place if Lackey and Josh Beckett were having the kinds of seasons they're capable of. This team really needs one or both of these guys to step up down the stretch, or their chances of catching the Yankees and/or Rays are essentially zero.

James Shields, Rays

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James Shields had a promising start to the season, with nice numbers in both April and May. But it's been downhill from there. His ERA has been over 4.8 in each of the three months since.

Shields' numbers for the season are not exactly impressive. On the second best team in the league, he's 11-11, with an ERA of 4.82. His FIP is better, but not much, at 4.50.

Still, Shields has a lot of ability. He misses bats and controls the strikezone at a high level, and his 3.58 K/BB rate is among the best in the league. He's clearly had a tough season, but he's also suffered from some terrible luck.

The Rays rotation is one of the better rotations in baseball when everyone is pitching up to their abilities. David Price is having a fantastic season, and Matt Garza has been at least solid, turning his season around with a tremendous August. Shields could be the last piece to that puzzle. If he can pitch like he did in April and May, it could put the Rays over the top.

Jonathon Papelbon, Red Sox

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The Red Sox closer has certainly had an up and down year. At times during the 2010 season, Red Sox fans have called for Daniel Bard to take the closers role, but Papelbon has settle down a bit in the second half, and will be key to the Red Sox divisional chances.

Papelbon doesn't have bad numbers this year, with a 3.08 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His strikeout and walk numbers have also been improving greatly over the past few months. But he's blown six saves this year. When he's not on, he implodes and the Red Sox lose.

The Red Sox need their closer to be on down the stretch. Calling on a guy who'll blow the game one out of every five times doesn't work. You can't afford to throw wins away, especially in this tight a race like this.

Robinson Cano, Yankees

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With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira having tough season, Robinson Cano has been the Yankees' best hitter this year, carrying the team offensively for long stretches.

While Cano is usually a slow-starter who heats up down the stretch, this year has been the opposite. Cano looked like the MVP favorite early in the year, but hit just .276 in July and .268 so far in August. Cano has still been an effective offensive threat, but not what he was early in the year, and not what the Yankees need him to be.

For the Yankees to be the best team in baseball, they need a serious offensive threat in the middle of the lineup. Maybe A-Rod can pick things up, and Teixeira has been better of late, but if Cano can regain his early season from, watch out.