College Football Betting: Looking at Some of The Best Wagers
When I decided a little over a year to commit myself to writing about sports, I had no idea what to expect. Would anyone read? Would anyone care? Would I be living in a cardboard box under the train tracks within six months?
While I’m happy to report that I am in fact not living under the train tracks, I have learned a lot over these past 13 months. And one thing that’s surprised me more than anything, is just how much people love to gamble on sports.
Everyone—young, old, rich, and poor. Degenerates and regular dudes. Basically from what I can gauge, if you’re somewhere between the ages of 18-55, and know what a first down is, you’ve wagered on football sometime in the last calendar year.
Last season, my most responded to articles that were on my weekly college football picks columns (first one coming in two weeks!). Everybody had an opinion. Why they liked my picks, why they hated them, or why the pick I made was absolutely, positively the dumbest one they’d ever seen—until that team covered the following weekend.
Well this year, rather than being caught off guard by all the gambling talk, I’m going to be at the forefront of it. With websites releasing all sorts of fun college football betting options already, I’ve gone ahead and looked at some of the Over/Under futures bets, and picked out a few that I like, and a few that I don’t.
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Of course, by sharing my picks, that almost certainly means I’ll be struck by lightning, or even worse, lose all my money, and end up living under the train tracks. If that happens, it was fun knowing you guys, although I guess I saw it coming.
And finally, as always, feel free to tell me why you agree with my picks, disagree with them, or just think I’m an idiot. It definitely won’t be the first, or last time I’ve heard it.
Either way, let’s get to the picks:
Before we begin, it’s important to note, that if I didn’t pick your team, it’s because the Over/Under win total is too close to call in my eyes. Or your team just sucks. Kidding. In all seriousness, I just don’t have enough money to be throwing around on teams I’m not confident in.
Let's take Florida for example. Their over/under win total is right at 10. I think that's exactly where they'll end up, with 10 regular season wins. But I think they could just as easily end up at nine wins or 11. Therefore, it's just a stay away to me. If your team doesn't make this list, I more than likely feel the same way about them too.
Now, here are a few picks I like.
(This is just PART of Aaron's College Football Betting Preview. To read the remainder, please click here, or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com)
Alabama OVER 10 Regular Season Wins (-115): My stance on this one is simple. With all the players ‘Bama lost on defense, this team is very likely going to lose a football game this year. I don’t think I’m shocking you with that statement, especially with a schedule that includes trips to LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee, as well as home dates with Florida and Auburn.
But really, I don’t see a whole ton of downside to this bet. Alabama has gone undefeated two regular seasons in a row. Even if they lose a game this year, you’re still a winner. If they lose two you get your money back.
To be a loser, the Tide would have to lose three regular season games. You don’t really see that happening, do you?
Auburn UNDER 8 ½ Regular Season Wins (-105): Look, I get why everyone likes Auburn coming into 2010: They were fun to watch last year. They score a lot points. They’ve got much better depth this season than last. They signed a monster recruiting class in February. They brought Cam Newton in at quarterback, and the upgrade from him to Chris Todd would be like riding around on a Huffy your whole life and then being handed the keys to a Maserati on your 16th birthday.
At the same time though, aren’t we all a little too excited about them? I mean, they did lose five of their last seven regular season games to end 2009, and needed a prayer and a miracle to beat Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. And this year, the SEC West is as deep as it's ever been. There are no easy night's in the league, more so in this division.
I like Auburn, and think they’ll get to eight wins. But nine? Let’s not start counting the eggs before they hatch.
USC OVER 9 ½ Regular Season Wins (-165): I know that the depth is a big-time issue. I get it. But for all the talk about USC's demise last year, remember, they still got nine wins, with a freshman quarterback and nine new starters on defense. Just as importantly, the schedule breaks nicely for them in 2010 with Notre Dame, Oregon, Cal and Washington all at home.
And go ahead and look at that schedule one last time. Because USC plays at Hawaii, the Trojans get 13 regular season games this year. 10-3 sounds just about right.
Iowa OVER 8 ½ Regular Season Wins (-200): I really like Iowa. Anyone who reads my stuff regularly knows that.
But I do think they take half a step back this year, mainly because quarterback Ricky Stanzi got himself into and out of more trouble than anyone in college football last year. Yes he went 10-0 in games that he started and finished in 2009, but also threw 15 picks to go along with his 17 touchdown passes. Believe me, I watched those games, and if Stanzi were a cat, he would've had run out of nine lives by about Week 6, and had to take out a loan on a few more to finish the season. Well, the bill is due on that loan, and I think Iowa gets tripped up a few times this year
Then again, the schedule is in their favor in 2010, with Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State at home, so I don’t think they’re a four loss team either. An early season trip to Arizona scares the you-know-what out of me, but I still think they get the win in the desert.
Give me 10-2 on the Hawkeyes and OVER 8 ½ wins in the college football futures betting...
(This is just PART of Aaron's college football bettting preview. To read the remainder, please click here or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com.
Also for Aaron's continued take on all things sports, be sure to add him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, Facebook.com/AaronTorresSports or by downloading his APP for FREE for your iPhone or Android!)
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