THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Chris Davis, 1B—TEX (UP) I brought Chris Davis up in my Futures Market section a couple of months ago as a potential sleeper, but I surely was not expecting this big of an outburst. The 22-year-old rookie first baseman is hitting .295 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and 27 runs scored in just 33 games. He is hitting a home run once every 11.1 at-bats, just astounding. And for the season, he has already hit 34 home runs (one every 12.3 at-bats) between three levels of competition. The power is obvious, but can we expect the batting average to continue? To an extent, yes, we could see it hover around the .270-.275 range. A 76 percent contact rate will certainly make it hard to sustain any average near .300, but Davis is hitting 22.5 percent line drives, which should give him a shot at keeping his average reasonable. Just understand that there is risk in that skill with Davis as the league adjusts.

• Kelly Shoppach, C—CLE (UP) Shoppach is another fantasy breakout player. All he had to do to really become recognized was go five for six with five extra-base hits in a game last week. This was just the second-time in American League history that such an event occurred, the last being Lou Boudreau in 1946. But all that really happened to make Shoppach a valuable player was to actually get playing time. When Victor Martinez went down, the astute fantasy player should have been grabbing Shoppach up. His average will be tough to maintain while striking out 34 percent of the time, a la Mike Napoli, but Shoppach’s power is just the same. Shoppach hits a very good 19.7 percent of flyballs over the fence. Since taking over for Victor Martinez about six weeks ago, Shoppach is hitting .308, with 10 home runs and 27 RBI. Too bad for him that Martinez will likely be back in two weeks, but even so, manager Eric Wedge stated that Martinez will split time with Shoppach behind the plate.

• Mark Teixeira, 1B—LAA (UP) You can debate whether the Angels did the right thing or not by swapping first basemen with the Atlanta Braves (plus a pitching prospect), but as negligible as that difference is to the Angels winning the West, the Angels brought in a game-changing player. He is currently on fire, hitting .346 since the break and is a lifetime .296 hitter after the break (20 points higher than before the break). Look for big things from Teixeira in the middle of a potent Angels’ lineup. He has cut back on strikeouts, while walking more, sustained a good line-drive rate of 20 percent, but is showing a slight decrease in home runs per flyball. Yet, because he has a lifetime second-half slugging percentage of .564, (53 points higher than before break), we should expect that his power will rebound to normal levels. After writing this, he hit a grand slam Sunday against the Yankees.

• Adam Jones, OF—BAL (DOWN) Don’t buy into the hype. Jones has created some positive vibes over the past month with his increasing batting average and skill set, but underneath of this is a player still struggling. After a torrid June and into early July, Jones has slowed a bit with a .300 OBP since the break, with zero walks and 12 strikeouts. This is what continues to plague him. For the season, Jones has a 92:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Couple this with a general lack of power, just 6.2 percent home runs per flyball, and we can see why he is just a .266 hitter with 10 home runs in a season’s worth of at-bats in his career. Late word also has Jones going for a CT scan of his foot today to see if there are any breaks.

• Paul Konerko, 1B—CHW (DOWN) You can yell at me. Just as I projected Konerko to rebound in the second half of the season as a buy-low target, the White Sox go and make a trade for Ken Griffey Jr. This move basically sits Konerko on the bench against right-handers, completely killing what fantasy value he may have had left. You can officially release the veteran slugger.

• David Murphy, OF—TEX (DOWN) In what seems like forever ago, Murphy was the leading candidate for AL Rookie-of-the-Year. That was before Evan Longoria broke out to take a stranglehold on the award, and before Murphy’s extended slump. Since June 12, Murphy has hit just .219 with four home runs. This has brought his bating average down to a still respectable .268 with 14 home runs. This should be about where he levels off. Murphy has an 83 percent contact rate with a .296 BABIP. His 10 percent HR/FB is likely to dip a bit more, but a .270 average with 18-20 home runs is possible.

Pitchers

• Jeremy Guthrie, SP—BAL (UP) I am usually hesitant to write anything positive about Jeremy Guthrie after his unsuccessful time as a first-round draft pick of my Cleveland Indians, but Guthrie has really found himself in Baltimore. He threw his first career complete game against the Mariners on Saturday night and has been a fairly consistent pitcher over the past two seasons. At his current pace, Guthrie will finish with back-to-back seasons with an ERA under 4.00, even though fielding-independent statistics say he should be above that. Guthrie has developed into a groundball pitcher, currently with 44.5 percent of balls on the ground, which is a necessity for one whose strikeout rate is just barely average. For the season, Guthrie is 8-8 with a 3.35 ERA, but is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his past five starts.

• Jon Lester, SP—BOS (UP) Lester keeps improving as the season rolls along. I wouldn’t have believed you if you told me at the beginning of the season that he’d be 10-3 after his first start of August. He has certainly improved upon his skills this year. His walks allowed and home runs allowed per flyball have significantly decreased, while he has significantly increased the number of groundballs induced. Add these together and it is no wonder that his ERA is 3.14. I still wouldn’t expect him to sustain his ERA at this level, but even if he backtracks a bit, while his innings count gets into career-high levels, his ERA should sustain around 3.75, which, on the Red Sox, will give him plenty of opportunities for wins.

• Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN (UP) Welcome back to the bigs, Francisco! The Twins released veteran starting pitcher Livan Hernandez last week to make room for the talented lefty. Liriano made his first start since April 24 on Sunday against the Indians. Liriano went six shutout innings, giving up just three hits while striking out five. He looked at times like the dominant starter of his rookie season. Including the minor leagues, Liriano has now won 11-straight decisions.

• Clay Buchholz, BOS (DOWN) It hasn’t been pretty since Buchholz’ recall from Pawtucket on July 11. He has four starts without a quality start to his credit. The best start was a 5.1-inning performance when he allowed three runs with seven strikeouts. Even in that start he was not great. He served up two home runs and put nine baserunners on. Overall, in these four starts, Buchholz has an 0-3 record and a 6.75 ERA. With all of this said, Buchholz is testing the patience of many fantasy owners while he struggles with his command. Buchholz’ BB/9 is a high 4.52. He also allows 12.3 percent home runs per flyball. Yet, his dominant stuff matched with groundball tendencies still teases us. One positive is that even with his struggles, his expected ERA is 3.86.

• John Danks, SP—CHW (DOWN) Are we starting to see the young pitcher begin to slow as his innings pitched total creeps closer to his career high of 156 innings from his 2005 minor-league season? Right now, Danks is at 130.2 innings, which is close to his 139 of last season and 140 from 2006. Over his past four starts, Danks has allowed 32 base hits, four of which have been home runs, in 23.2 innings. He is 1-0 over these starts, but his ERA of 6.85 and WHIP of 1.52 tell a better story of how ineffective he has been.

• Shaun Marcum, SP—TOR (DOWN) The remarkable start to the season of Shaun Marcum seems like forever ago. After going 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA through June 18, Marcum went to the disabled list with shoulder soreness before returning on July 22. The three starts since have been terrible. He has gone 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA, allowing 21 hits and five home runs in 14.2 innings. His strikeouts have also been non-existent, just seven to his seven walks. For the season, Marcum’s ERA now stands at 3.57, which is still below his expected ERA of 4.05. I would expect something of a turnaround soon, but don’t expect what you may have benefited from earlier this season.

 

INJURY REPORT

Bartolo Colon is nearing a return. He has thrown multiple side sessions with no setbacks and is ready to begin a rehab assignment this Tuesday. He will be back by the middle of August, maybe sooner.

Fans of Phillip Hughes should take notice. The much-ballyhooed prospect is set to start his rehab assignment this Tuesday. Hughes is recovering from fractured ribs suffered back in April when he was struggling with an ERA of 9.00. Should he succeed in his rehab, Hughes should be up in a few weeks and certainly give the Yankees an upgrade to the rotation.

With a lot less hype, Carl Pavano might actually pitch this season, though manager Joe Girardi says he is not expecting much from him. Pavano threw two scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance of the season. He is recovering from right elbow surgery.

Out since Spring Training, when his career was in jeopardy, Rocco Baldelli will likely return early this week. He will give added depth to the roster and will be utilized as a right-handed part of a right field and/or DH platoon, maybe more. He is a pickup in AL formats. Monitor in mixed leagues. Baldelli hit .257 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 24 minor-league rehab starts.

Shannon Stewart, who severely sprained his ankle nearly two months ago, is on a rehab assignment in Class-A Dunedin. He is one for eight with two RBI through Sunday. No word on how long this rehab is scheduled for.

The White Sox are expecting the return of a couple of key players this week. Jose Contreras threw a rehab start yesterday, going five innings, giving up three runs on four hits, and walking three. He is likely to be activated for his next start by the weekend. Also, Joe Crede’s back is doing well, and he is on pace to return to the White Sox this Wednesday, even though he sat out both Saturday and Sunday with more back issues. Assuming he is activated, Josh Fields will likely be sent back to AAA.

The Twins took a heavy blow last week when their speedy second baseman, Alexi Casilla, was placed on the disabled list with a torn ligament in his right thumb. There is a possibility he may need surgery, but the Twins and Casilla are going to wait another week and re-evaluate before choosing that route, which would end his season.

The Twins, however, are expecting the return of outfielder Michael Cuddyer in the next week. Out since June 28 with a strained tendon in a finger, Cuddyer will begin a rehab assignment this week in hopes of returning maybe by the weekend. This would cause Denard Span to lose some playing time, and in turn, probably Carlos Gomez, who would likely, in turn, give up some time to Span in center.

Not only has Todd Jones lost his closer’s job, he is now on the disabled list with what is being called inflammation and tendonitis of his rotator cuff. Jones says that the pain has been getting worse over the past six weeks. Don’t count on anything from him the rest of the way, even if he returns.

Of little fantasy significance, the Royals placed second baseman Mark Grudzielanek on the disabled list Saturday with a sprained right ankle. Mike Aviles will likely shift over, with Tony Pena Jr. and Esteban German picking up the at-bats.

It was a rough week for the Rangers. Starting last Sunday, Kevin Millwood’s groin acted up again landing him on the disabled list. Then, Hank Blalock once again found his way back onto the disabled list (likely for the season), this time with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, while another starter, Eric Hurley, went to the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

Also, Milton Bradley sat out the majority of the week with another quad strain, and Ramon Vazquez missed the weekend with shoulder pain, but neither of these two figure to land on the disabled list.

Erik Bedard threw a bullpen session on Sunday. It was the first time he had thrown since being sidelined on July 4. The Mariners plan on Bedard making a couple of rehab starts before returning later this month. That is, if all goes as planned.

 

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC The line drives are back for this talented hitter. Still only at 15.1 percent on the season, Butler is slowly creeping up to last season’s standards. Thus, his BABIP of .282 will increase in the second half of the season. In addition to this, Butler is showing an increased contact rate this season of 88 percent. While continuing to show his excellent ability to put the ball in play, Butler has hit .356 with five home runs and 15 RBI since the All-Star break, raising his batting average to .271 with seven home runs. He has six walks to just two strikeouts over these 59 post-All-Star at-bats. The power remains the question with Butler, as he is a groundball hitter who has just eight percent HR/FB, but with the increasing average, I’d still add knowing it has to get better.

• Garret Anderson, OF—LAA The ever-steady Garret Anderson continues to put up worthy numbers. He was on fire in July, hitting .389 with five home runs and 22 RBI. There is no way that he could keep that pace up, but if you are in the market for an extra outfielder in a mixed league, you certainly could do worse than Anderson. Anderson will not be a season-changing add by any stretch, but if you want a guy who will consistently put the ball in play (14 percent strikeout rate) with a sustainable .307 BABIP, which will translate into a batting average in the mid-.280s, then Anderson is definitely worth a look. Anderson also will give solid RBI totals from a waiver-wire outfielder with some pop in the bat. He’ll probably finish somewhere near his usual .285 with 17 home runs and 80 RBI.

• Gil Meche, SP—KC Another good, but not great, guy to look at for your pitching staff in deep, mixed leagues is Gil Meche. Meche has quietly duplicated his successful 2007 season. Meche is 9-9 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Yes, very average, but depending on your situation, a guy like Meche or a Jeremy Guthrie can give you consistent innings that do not kill you. Meche has increased his strikeout rate to 6.78 per nine innings, decreased his HR/FB to 8.1 percent, and continued to hold opposing hitters to the usual .260 batting average. He is working on three-straight quality starts since the All-Star break and is quietly 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA since May 1.

• Kyle Farnsworth, RP—DET With the mess that is the Detroit Tigers' bullpen, do not rule out Fernando Rodney losing his job in the near future and the newly acquired Farnsworth picking up the save opportunities. The power-armed reliever’s strikeout totals are nowhere near what they used, but remain at an effective level of about a strikeout an inning, which is three times that of Todd Jones. Though, his high home-run rate is very disconcerting. Farnsworth’s HR/FB rate is 21 percent, and that is from a flyball pitcher. That is truly unsustainable as his career rate is around 12, but that number is not even that great. While he may get the opportunity for the coveted saves statistic, tread carefully and know that he is likely not the answer either. Though, you never know with saves. It is very unpredictable.

 

FUTURES MARKET

If you are looking for a hot prospect that may soon make an impact, look no further than Gio Gonzalez of Oakland. The 2008 minor-league strikeout king is having a fine July and into August. Over his past seven appearances (six of which are starts), Gonzalez has an ERA of 1.82 with 37 strikeouts and merely 16 hits allowed in 34.2 innings of work. With the exodus of Oakland starters before the deadline, and Dana Eveland being demoted, there is room for Gio to make his debut.

One of many Indians prospects having fine seasons, infielder Beau Mills has hit .289 with 17 home runs and 73 RBI. This is after a terrible April in which he hit just .222 and slugged .378. He has adjusted well to the high-A Carolina League and is primed to make the climb to AA Akron at any time. He is certainly a future power-hitter as a corner infielder in the major leagues. We’ll just have to wait a few more years.

It has been a while since giving an update on Tigers top prospect Rick Porcello. He is still at high-A Lakeland, where he continues to give solid, consistent innings. He is not overpowering batters to rack up strikeouts, just five per nine innings, but a high 64 percent groundball rate continues. He locates the ball well with his power sinker in the low 90s and has been compared to the likes of Roy Halladay. For the season, Porcello is 6-6 with a 2.81 ERA.

A corner outfielder in the Boston organization is on the move, and no, it is not Manny Ramirez. Josh Reddick, the Sox’ 17th-round selection from the 2006 draft has moved up two levels this season to AA Portland. He hit a combined .342 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI prior to his recent call-up to AA. He has slowed to a .219 average with Portland, but that will not last.

According to Baseball America, in their 2008 handbook, “Reddick will consistently hit for average because he has a smooth lefty stroke, strong wrists, and a great feel for putting the bat on the ball.”

Brandon Wood is some sort of ridiculous hot right now. For the month of July, the Angles’ infield prospect hit .355 with 11 home runs and 23 RBI. The crazy part is that most of that came in a 10-game stretch where he hit .436 with seven of his home runs. Though looking at his stats, the best stat for Wood is the fact that he has walked 16 times to 25 strikeouts in July, a vast improvement over his usual tendencies.

Is it the beginning of a new trend or just a blip on the radar because of small sample size? Wood is hitting .285 with 25 home runs and 61 RBI for AAA Salt Lake.

 

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

With the trade deadline quickly approaching in many leagues, this will be the last installment of Buy Low/Sell High for this season.

• Buy – Chone Figgins, 3B—LAA Figgins is quite possibly at one of his worst levels of fantasy value of his career. He has no power to speak of, which not much was expected, a .287 batting average (second lowest of career), another decrease in stolen base output, and a total of 13 RBI. He’s averaged about 60 RBI a season over the past four years. With all of that said, Figgins has quietly begun a turnaround. It happens to coincide with the Angels’ offense heating up. Since the break, Figgins is hitting .328 with 13 runs scored, two RBI and is second to BJ Upton with five steals. With the addition of Mark Teixeira to the lineup, Figgins should have the opportunity to round the bases a couple more times before the end of the season. Don’t give up too much and lose a lot in the power categories, but if you need some batting average with some runs scored and steals, Figgins may be your man.

• Sell – Justin Duchscherer, SP—OAK When will the arm tire out, that is the question? Has it already started? The converted reliever, Duchscherer, has only 15 strikeouts to 10 walks over his past 26.2 innings. Plus, he gave up more home runs, five, during the month of July than he had the rest of the season combined. He has become much more hittable, 25 hits over these 26.2 innings, as compared to the 66 hits allowed in the remaining 101 innings of work. All of this may end up meaningless, but you have to wonder. He is at 127.2 innings this season. The most he has ever thrown in a professional season was 155 in 2003. Before time runs out on the trade deadline in your league, consider moving Duchscherer before it is too late.

 

RANKING OF THE WEEK: TOP-10 ELIGIBLE AL SECOND BASEMAN

1. Ian Kinsler, TEX
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Brian Roberts, BAL
4. B.J. Upton, TB
5. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
6. Howie Kendrick, LAA
7. Robinson Cano, NYY
8. Mike Aviles, KC
9. Placido Polanco, DET
10. Jose Lopez, SEA

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