Roto Chronicles: American League, Aug. 4

Michael Taylor by Senior Writer Written on August 04, 2008
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  • Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC The line drives are back for this talented hitter. Still only at 15.1 percent on the season, Butler is slowly creeping up to last season’s standards. Thus, his BABIP of .282 will increase in the second half of the season. In addition to this, Butler is showing an increased contact rate this season of 88 percent. While continuing to show his excellent ability to put the ball in play, Butler has hit .356 with five home runs and 15 RBI since the All-Star break, raising his batting average to .271 with seven home runs. He has six walks to just two strikeouts over these 59 post-All-Star at-bats. The power remains the question with Butler, as he is a groundball hitter who has just eight percent HR/FB, but with the increasing average, I’d still add knowing it has to get better.
  • Garret Anderson, OF—LAA The ever-steady Garret Anderson continues to put up worthy numbers. He was on fire in July, hitting .389 with five home runs and 22 RBI. There is no way that he could keep that pace up, but if you are in the market for an extra outfielder in a mixed league, you certainly could do worse than Anderson. Anderson will not be a season-changing add by any stretch, but if you want a guy who will consistently put the ball in play (14 percent strikeout rate) with a sustainable .307 BABIP, which will translate into a batting average in the mid-.280s, then Anderson is definitely worth a look. Anderson also will give solid RBI totals from a waiver-wire outfielder with some pop in the bat. He’ll probably finish somewhere near his usual .285 with 17 home runs and 80 RBI.
  • Gil Meche, SP—KC Another good, but not great, guy to look at for your pitching staff in deep, mixed leagues is Gil Meche. Meche has quietly duplicated his successful 2007 season. Meche is 9-9 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Yes, very average, but depending on your situation, a guy like Meche or a Jeremy Guthrie can give you consistent innings that do not kill you. Meche has increased his strikeout rate to 6.78 per nine innings, decreased his HR/FB to 8.1 percent, and continued to hold opposing hitters to the usual .260 batting average. He is working on three-straight quality starts since the All-Star break and is quietly 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA since May 1.
  • Kyle Farnsworth, RP—DET With the mess that is the Detroit Tigers' bullpen, do not rule out Fernando Rodney losing his job in the near future and the newly acquired Farnsworth picking up the save opportunities. The power-armed reliever’s strikeout totals are nowhere near what they used, but remain at an effective level of about a strikeout an inning, which is three times that of Todd Jones. Though, his high home-run rate is very disconcerting. Farnsworth’s HR/FB rate is 21 percent, and that is from a flyball pitcher. That is truly unsustainable as his career rate is around 12, but that number is not even that great. While he may get the opportunity for the coveted saves statistic, tread carefully and know that he is likely not the answer either. Though, you never know with saves. It is very unpredictable.

 

FUTURES MARKET

If you are looking for a hot prospect that may soon make an impact, look no further than Gio Gonzalez of Oakland. The 2008 minor-league strikeout king is having a fine July and into August. Over his past seven appearances (six of which are starts), Gonzalez has an ERA of 1.82 with 37 strikeouts and merely 16 hits allowed in 34.2 innings of work. With the exodus of Oakland starters before the deadline, and Dana Eveland being demoted, there is room for Gio to make his debut.

One of many Indians prospects having fine seasons, infielder Beau Mills has hit .289 with 17 home runs and 73 RBI. This is after a terrible April in which he hit just .222 and slugged .378. He has adjusted well to the high-A Carolina League and is primed to make the climb to AA Akron at any time. He is certainly a future power-hitter as a corner infielder in the major leagues. We’ll just have to wait a few more years.

It has been a while since giving an update on Tigers top prospect Rick Porcello. He is still at high-A Lakeland, where he continues to give solid, consistent innings. He is not overpowering batters to rack up strikeouts, just five per nine innings, but a high 64 percent groundball rate continues. He locates the ball well with his power sinker in the low 90s and has been compared to the likes of Roy Halladay. For the season, Porcello is 6-6 with a 2.81 ERA.

A corner outfielder in the Boston organization is on the move, and no, it is not Manny Ramirez. Josh Reddick, the Sox’ 17th-round selection from the 2006 draft has moved up two levels this season to AA Portland. He hit a combined .342 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI prior to his recent call-up to AA. He has slowed to a .219 average with Portland, but that will not last.

According to Baseball America, in their 2008 handbook, “Reddick will consistently hit for average because he has a smooth lefty stroke, strong wrists, and a great feel for putting the bat on the ball.”

Brandon Wood is some sort of ridiculous hot right now. For the month of July, the Angles’ infield prospect hit .355 with 11 home runs and 23 RBI. The crazy part is that most of that came in a 10-game stretch where he hit .436 with seven of his home runs. Though looking at his stats, the best stat for Wood is the fact that he has walked 16 times to 25 strikeouts in July, a vast improvement over his usual tendencies.

Is it the beginning of a new trend or just a blip on the radar because of small sample size? Wood is hitting .285 with 25 home runs and 61 RBI for AAA Salt Lake.

 

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

With the trade deadline quickly approaching in many leagues, this will be the last installment of Buy Low/Sell High for this season.

  • Buy – Chone Figgins, 3B—LAA Figgins is quite possibly at one of his worst levels of fantasy value of his career. He has no power to speak of, which not much was expected, a .287 batting average (second lowest of career), another decrease in stolen base output, and a total of 13 RBI. He’s averaged about 60 RBI a season over the past four years. With all of that said, Figgins has quietly begun a turnaround. It happens to coincide with the Angels’ offense heating up. Since the break, Figgins is hitting .328 with 13 runs scored, two RBI and is second to BJ Upton with five steals. With the addition of Mark Teixeira to the lineup, Figgins should have the opportunity to round the bases a couple more times before the end of the season. Don’t give up too much and lose a lot in the power categories, but if you need some batting average with some runs scored and steals, Figgins may be your man.
  • Sell – Justin Duchscherer, SP—OAK When will the arm tire out, that is the question? Has it already started? The converted reliever, Duchscherer, has only 15 strikeouts to 10 walks over his past 26.2 innings. Plus, he gave up more home runs, five, during the month of July than he had the rest of the season combined. He has become much more hittable, 25 hits over these 26.2 innings, as compared to the 66 hits allowed in the remaining 101 innings of work. All of this may end up meaningless, but you have to wonder. He is at 127.2 innings this season. The most he has ever thrown in a professional season was 155 in 2003. Before time runs out on the trade deadline in your league, consider moving Duchscherer before it is too late.

 

RANKING OF THE WEEK: TOP-10 ELIGIBLE AL SECOND BASEMAN

1. Ian Kinsler, TEX
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Brian Roberts, BAL
4. B.J. Upton, TB
5. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
6. Howie Kendrick, LAA
7. Robinson Cano, NYY
8. Mike Aviles, KC
9. Placido Polanco, DET
10. Jose Lopez, SEA

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written on August 04, 2008 Opinion

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