The Duel: Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees?
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The "gunslinger" moniker is often attached to quarterbacks who can sling the ball and take some risks while doing it. Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees might as well be Clint Eastwood and John Wayne. They are the cream of the crop, fantasy-wise, and they look to stay on top for the 2010 season.
So, if these two cowpokes were to square off at high noon, who would be left standing after the dust settled?
I’ll answer that question for you.
Before I get started, let me first say this: I am a huge Green Bay Packer fan. I bleed green and gold, and I will defend the organization’s superiority until I die. That being said, I am all business when it comes to fantasy. I have no problems passing on Donald Driver or Mason Crosby in this year’s draft. I want players on my team that give me the best chance of winning in fantasy, and sometimes your hometown team can’t give you that. To sum up—I’m a homer in real life, but I’m as unbiased as can be when it comes to fantasy. Also, this is a FANTASY argument. There is no debate who is more successful in the game, Brees has the ring. Now, let’s get started!
The Stats
On paper, Brees and Rodgers had similar seasons last year. Both players threw for 30+ touchdowns and 4,300+ yards. Brees had four more passing touchdowns than Rodgers, but Rodgers had three more rushing touchdowns.
Two things contributed to Rodgers scoring more points than Brees last season: turnovers and rushing. Brees threw 11 interceptions last season and lost six fumbles. Despite being sacked 30 more times than Brees, Rodgers only had seven interceptions and lost four fumbles. Pair that with Rodgers' ability to run and it is easy to see why he was the top scoring quarterback. Brees finished the season with 33 yards rushing and two touchdowns, Rodgers (keep in mind that sack total) scampered for 316 yards and five touchdowns.
That all happened last season, so what does that mean for this season? For running the ball, it’s not going to change much. Brees is 31 years old and isn’t going to start being a running quarterback any time soon. If Rodgers’ offensive line continues to be bothersome, he is going to have to keep on running.
As for passing, expect similar numbers from both Brees and Rodgers, barring some hideous injury to them or an important teammate. Brees threw 34 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons and more than 4,300 yards in each of the last four seasons. What worries me is the turnovers. In the past five seasons, Brees has averaged 14.4 interceptions a season. That’s a monstrous number for a veteran, elite quarterback.
Since becoming a starter in the 2008 season, Rodgers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each season and has improved on his passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, passing yards, rushing yards, and competition percentage over the past two years. Rodgers is on his way up and will continue to improve. Brees is about as good as he is going to get.
Repeating their stats last season means Rodgers and Brees will have to rely on their teammates. Which brings us to the next argument…
The Supporting Cast
Both the Packers and the Saints have loaded receiving corps. The Saints have a three-headed monster with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem. The Packers have stalwarts Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and the trendy fantasy sleeper Jermichael Finely.
Red-zone hound Mike Bell is no longer on the Saints roster, so Brees won’t have to worry about him leaching any touchdowns. The Saints running backs are also better receivers. Their top two returning rushers, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, received a combined 637 yards and five touchdowns compared to the Packers' top two returning rushers (Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson) who have a combined 384 yards and one touchdown.
The Packers' offensive line, which plagued the team all last season, has improved slightly but isn’t at the caliber of the Saints' line. The NFC North Division also contains tougher defenses than the NFC South. The Packers will have to play the rugged Vikings and Bears defenses each twice and the Saints get to feast on the depleted Panthers and Buccaneers defenses.
The Verdict
Despite all of the adversity that seems to surround Rodgers, the guy still produces. It doesn’t matter whom Rodgers has around him, the offensive line that’s guarding him, or even if the Packers win the game—Rodgers scores points. Even in his first year as a starter, when the Packers went 6-10, Rodgers still posted a 4,000-yard season and had 28 touchdowns. That’s why I’m giving the edge to Rodgers in this showdown.
Brees throws too many interceptions and is going late first round or early second round. You can get Brees’ production with Rodgers and wait until the third round. For keeper leagues, Rodgers in the obvious choice, he’s five years younger. And for you auction players, I’ve seen Rodgers go anywhere from $5 to $15 cheaper and those are precious dollars that you can put into other players. And I don’t need to say anything about the “Madden” curse, do I?
So, in the end: Aaron Rodgers is left standing when the dust settles.
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