With eight NFC teams vying for Wild Card berths and two division races still up for grabs, Sunday afternoons should be pretty interesting this month.
This Sunday is no exception, with six games in which at least one team has a legitimate shot at an NFC Wild Card spot.
But what exactly is at stake this weekend? And which outcomes are best for which teams?
Each week, ChanceBot.com measures the impact of every game on each team in the NFL. Each game is considered and measured in isolation—and this normally works just fine.
But the method can be problematic if two teams vying for the same playoff spot are playing each other.
For instance, if you're an Arizona fan, who would you want to win this weekend—the Giants or the Bears?
The issue gets further muddled by other games involving two teams also competing for the playoffs. Going back to Arizona, it seems probable that the best outcome of the Giants-Chicago game would be dictated by the outcome of the Seattle-Philadelphia game.
In fact, teasing out the details of these scenarios borders on impossible for the human brain—but the ChanceBot can attack the problem with brute force.
With six games and 64 possible outcome sets, ChanceBot took several hours to untangle the Week 13 scenarios in the NFC Wild Card race. Along the way, it calculated which outcome sets are best—or worst—for each team.
The results are below. The percentages indicate each team's chances of making the playoffs if the given scenario were to occur.
Keep in mind that the percentages given here will differ slightly from the percentages given on ChanceBot.com next week. ChanceBot uses game results to rate team strength—a method which alters playoff probabilities.
NY Giants
Best Scenario (91.8%)
Buffalo defeats Washington, Detroit defeats Minnesota, Seattle defeats Philadelphia, Tampa Bay defeats New Orleans, Cleveland defeats Arizona, NY Giants defeat Chicago
Worst Scenario (51.7%)
Washington defeats Buffalo, Minnesota defeats Detroit, Philadelphia defeats Seattle, New Orleans defeats Tampa Bay, Arizona defeats Cleveland, Chicago defeats NY Giants
Philadelphia
Best Scenario (49.4%)
Buffalo defeats Washington, Detroit defeats Minnesota, Philadelphia defeats Seattle, Tampa Bay defeats New Orleans, Cleveland defeats Arizona, NY Giants defeat Chicago
Worst Scenarios (9.9%)
Washington defeats Buffalo, Minnesota defeats Detroit, Seattle defeats Philadelphia, New Orleans defeats Tampa Bay, Arizona defeats Cleveland, Chicago defeats NY Giants
Washington
Best Scenario (35.9%)
1 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Bryan Goldberg about 1 year ago
Woah -- pretty cool concept.
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