The Negative VORP club of the Twins

Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP, is a counting stat which awards players runs based on offensive performance compared to the statistical concept of the replacement player. The distribution of talent in baseball is not normal but pyramidal. There are a

by Marty Andrade (Senior Writer)

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July 30, 2008

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Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP, is a counting stat which awards players runs based on offensive performance compared to the statistical concept of the replacement player. The distribution of talent in baseball is not normal but pyramidal. There are a lot more players at the bottom than at the top. With lots of players available at very low cost who are at the bottom of the talent distribution we can rate the marginal value of major league players compared to these cheap journeyman players.

Six of the Twins players are below the replacement level, here’s my take on what to do with them:

Michael Cuddyer, RF
VORP -.2

There’s no doubt Cuddyer has had a down year. His long term track record suggests he’s playing well below where he should be and he’s on the DL anyway until sometime in August. Cuddyer isn’t someone to cut, but the Twins will have to make some difficult decisions when he comes off the DL. Personally, Cuddyer stays and Gomez gets sent down for some time in AAA before coming back up with the club in September.

Glen Perkins, SP
VORP -.6

You’d think a pitcher with a 4.08 ERA and a 7-3 record would rank somewhere above replacement level, and the truth is he probably does. But, his xFIP (expected fielding independent ERA, a stat which tries to remove bias from other more traditional stats) is a high 4.83 which puts him below the league average (presently 4.17) somewhere near the 80th percentile among qualified pitchers. Not great, but at age 25 Perkins still has a lot of potential upside. Considering his injury last year and the fact he’s now approaching career highs in innings pitched it might be time to shut Perkins down or throw him into the bullpen. With Francisco Liriano waiting in AAA, shutting Perkins down wouldn’t hurt the Twins at all.

Craig Monroe, DH/OF
VORP -1.3

Monroe did good work as a right handed power hitter who split time with Jason Kubel at DH. Monroe’s .677 OPS the year is actually higher than his work last year. Of course, his OPS is very unimpressive for a DH and despite the fact Monroe brings some right-handed power to the Twins lineup there are other players who could fill Monroe’s shoes better and cheaper. I would DFA the guy but the Twins will probably hold onto him.

Adam Everett, SS
VORP -3.4

Everett has spent much of the season on the DL with arm problems, which has actually lessened the damage. Everett is a great glove, normally, but Twins fans didn’t get to see it earlier this year because Everett was playing hurt. Oh yeah, Everett is absolutely terrible with a bat in his hand. So, he’s so far added nothing to this team this year. His signing can only be called a disaster for the Twins and while I’m sure the Twins will give Everett a roster spot that should be going to a more deserving young player, I would designate him for assignment.

Carlos Gomez, CF
VORP -6.1

A lot of Twins fans fell in love with Gomez’s speed, but they ignored his track record. Well, the Twins front office did the same thing and so did Ron Gardenhire and the end result was having the worst hitter in the league leading off for the Twins almost the entire year. VORP doesn’t take into consideration defense, and Gomez is the best defensive centerfielder in the majors. I think Gomez could benefit from some time in the minors and could rejoin the Twins in September but the Twins will continue to play him despite his poor performance this year.

Mike Lamb, 3B
VORP -12.4

It’s been a tough season for Mike Lamb, and an even tougher one for Twins fans. Luckily, Lamb has spent most of the season on the bench. Unfortunately, the Twins are paying Lamb and will be paying Lamb millions of dollars over the next couple of seasons whether he performs or not. I would cut my losses and DFA Lamb, but the Twins seem unable to let go overpaid veterans until they’ve help lose 15 or 20 games. Call this another free-agent signing gone nuclear for the Twins.

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About the Author Marty Andrade (senior writer)

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