College Football Predictions: Texas Tech in the Preseason Polls

How accurate are the pre season polls?

More importantly, how accurate are the pre season polls in predicting the kind of season the Texas Tech Red Raiders will have?

Well, here are some numbers to chew on . . .

According to Athlon’s, Lindy’s and Street & Smith’s pre season rankings (combined and averaged) Texas Tech was predicted to finish number 22 overall in 2006, out of the top 25 in 2007, number 18 in 2008 and unranked again in 2009.

Tech actually finished (AP and USA final polls combined and averaged) out of the top 25 in 2006, 23 overall in 2007, 12 overall in 2008 and 22 overall in 2009.

Let’s look at that again:
2006 Pre season: 22 Finished: NR
2007 Pre season: NR Finished: 23
2008 Pre season: 18 Finished: 12
2009 Pre season: NR Finished: 22

So, in the past four years only once have the Red Raiders finished at or below the level they were predicted to do by the college football media brain trust.

The 2010 predictions for Tech are the usual array of forecasts for a team that is rarely if ever over rated.

All sources comment on the obvious: Leach is gone, Tuberville has taken over, and therefore Texas Tech Red Raider football in 2010 is a complete unknown.

This combined with the quarterback controversy between Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield lead to fairly vague forecasts about the possible successes or failures of Texas Tech.

So, let’s take a look at this year’s predictions for Texas Tech Red Raider Football from six different media sources.

Overall, across the six sources Tech is picked to finish an average of 40th nationally and fourth in the Big 12 South. Not exactly the kind of figures the Red Raider faithful will welcome with open arms . . .

But, if history is correct, and good fortune once again shines its beaming face upon Lubbock; Tech will finish above these marks and might just shock the college football community in the process.

Regardless, let’s set a date in January to review the “experts” predictions and compare them to the actual results of the 2010 Red Raiders.

Athlon

National Ranking: 37

Big 12 South Ranking: 4

The folks down at Athlon, headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, see Tech finishing behind Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M in the final year of the Big 12 South.

Following the Red Raiders, they have predicted Oklahoma State and Baylor at the bottom of the division.

Athlon ranks Tech’s 2010 units against others in the Big 12 as follows: Quarterbacks 6th, Running Backs 6th, Wide Receivers/Tight Ends 3rd, Offensive Line 9th, Defensive Line 9th, Linebackers 5th, and Defensive Backs 6th.

Nationally, Tech is ranked 36th directly behind Texas A&M and Rutgers who are 34 and 35 respectively; Ranked immediately after the Red Raiders are Arizona at 38 and Utah at 39.

Athlon ranks Notre Dame and South Carolina to finish ahead of Tech while teams like Washington, Kansas, Cincinnati and even a Houston team who is considered a BCU buster, are picked after the Red Raiders.

Athlon claims that the key to an eight plus win season for Tech will be the health of Steven Sheffield and if the defensive line can improve enough to be successful.

It is interesting that Potts, the running game and the new defensive scheme are not also considered crucial to Tech’s 2010 campaign.

Lindy’s

National Ranking: 32

Big 12 South Ranking: 4

Lindy’s has been publishing a college football guide since 1982. In its 2010 guide Lindy’s picks Tech to finish 4th in the Big 12 South and 5th overall in the Big 12.

Nationally, Tech is ranked 32nd, immediately after Michigan State at 31 and above Washington at 33.

Provocatively, Clemson, UConn and Notre Dame are all picked below Tech in Lindy’s national rankings.

In its breakdown of the Red Raiders Lindy’s highlights the obvious changes at Tech; gives props to the offense and lists concerns about the defense.

Lindy’s does mention that even without Leach at the helm that the Red Raiders still have plenty of talent on the field.

Overall, Lindy’s discusses Tuberville’s entrance into Lubbock and the fact that the spread offense failed for him at Auburn back in 2008.

If I were selected to write a “Red Raider Rebuttal” to Lindy’s I would mention that Tech has the personnel in place today to run the spread very successfully. There is no transition needed at Tech to sling the ball around.

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football

National Ranking: N/A

Big 12 South Ranking: 4

Dave Campbell’s has been producing its Texas Football magazine since 1960. The almost 400 page volume covers every facet of Texas football from the NFL right down to analysis of every high school football team in the Lone Star State.

Dave Campbell’s guide is absolutely a must read for anyone who follows any football team in Texas.

Texas Football ranks Tech within the South Division of the Big 12 at number four. This mirrors most of the other major magazine’s picks.

Texas Football provides a top 25 (which is FSN’s preseason top 25); Texas Tech does not appear in this list and therefore a national ranking is not made available.

Dave Campbell’s does though predict an overall win/loss total for each team, and, furthermore picks a winner and loser in each game the teams will compete in.

Tech is projected to finish 8-4 in 2010; the record breaks down as follows:

Wins: SMU, at New Mexico, at Iowa State, Baylor (at the Cotton Bowl), Oklahoma State, at Colorado, Weber State and Houston.

Losses: Texas, at Texas A&M, Missouri and at Oklahoma.

Interestingly, Texas Football also shows the overall record predicted for 2009 vs. actual results. In the Red Raiders case the magazine picked the ’09 squad to go 7-5 while the actual record posted was 9-4 (including the Alamo Bowl victory vs. Michigan State).

If applicable, Dave Campbell’s also predicts a bowl appearance for Texas teams. In this case, Tech is forecasted to play in the Sun Bowl.

Though Oklahoma played in the Sun Bowl in 2009 this pick is interesting for 2010 because the Sun bowl is slated to switch to a match-up between the ACC number 4 team vs. the Pac-10 number 4 team.

The Kickoff

National Ranking: 50

Big 12 South Ranking: 6

The Kickoff College Football Preview Guide is a thick volume with a heavy paper cover. The inside is devoid of any photos and printed on heavy cardstock.

That said the Kickoff Guide is absolutely full of good, solid, not so flashy but very frank analysis.

The Kickoff has published a college football newsletter since 1951 and 2010 marks the second edition of its Football Preview Magazine.

For Red Raider fans, reading the breakdown of Tech’s predictions for 2010 in The Kickoff is not unlike getting slapped upside the head with a copy of the weighty magazine itself.

The Kickoff team states that Tech will have to prove that the past 10 years success wasn’t entirely creditable to Leach but also charges Tuberville with taking the Red Raiders to the level of Oklahoma and Texas.

So, if the success was all Leach’s doing how in the world will Tuberville be able to immediately put Tech (who they rank last in the Big 12 South and behind 49 other programs nationally) in contention for a Big 12 Championship?

That sounds like passive aggressive behavior to me.

Regardless, picking the Red Raiders to finish dead last in the conference (below Baylor) and number 50 overall seems like a stretch at best.

Just how bad does the Kickoff think Texas Tech is going to be this year?
Well, struggling Colorado is ranked at number 51, and, the rebuilding Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked 22 slots ahead of Tech at number 28.

Michigan, Kansas State, UCLA and Northwestern are also ranked ahead of the 2010 Red Raiders.

Hopefully someone will print this out and hang it in the Texas Tech locker room.

Rivals

National Ranking: 46

Big 12 South Ranking: N/A

Rivals.com from Yahoo Sports puts out a yearly Preseason Top 120 Countdown.

The Rivals staff has the Red Raiders nationally ranked at 46 just below USF at 45 and above Michigan State at 47. Curiously, ranked above Tech nationally are teams such as Air Force, Michigan, Rutgers and Washington.

From a historical perspective, Rivals.com preseason rankings in 2009 ranked Tech 21st nationally; they finished 23rd.

Rivals wraps up its coverage on Tech by commending Tuberville for pulling back together, as well as could be expected, a largely divided Red Raider Nation. It continues with a forewarning that if Tech doesn’t produce actual wins, both early and then often, that the divide may reopen.

The Sporting News

National Ranking: 36

Big 12 South Ranking: 4

The Sporting News has Texas Tech picked to finish fourth in the South after Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M respectively.

Nationally, Tech is ranked at 36th overall, behind Arizona at 35th and before Navy at 37th.

Notable teams ranked above Tech are Kansas at 31 and Washington (who hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2002).

Of equal interest, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Cincinnati are ranked nationally below the Red Raiders.

Sporting News’ “game to watch” on the Red Raiders’ schedule is the opener vs. SMU where Tech fans and the larger football community can finally see the Tuberville era at Tech begin.

One of the unique aspects of the Sporting News guide is that it boldly predicts a specific bowl game for each and every FBS team they forecast to be bowl eligible.

The bowl prediction for the Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Dallas Football Classic which is scheduled to be played January 1, 2011 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas with TV coverage on ESPNU. The Dallas Bowl is allocated the match-up of the 8th team in the Big 12 vs. the 7th team in the Big 10.