Predicting where Alex Rodriguez May Hit 600th HR in Progressive Field

Alex Rodriguez is now one home run away from 600 and we have the updated landing spot prediction for Progressive Field!

While he was three home runs away from joining the 600 Home Run Club, SeatGeek teamed with Hit Tracker and released a report in which the most likely section in Yankee Stadium where A-Rod may hit the home run was predicted, as well as the most likely seat, “The Money Seat.”

Yankees fans, however, were not able to witness history in Yankee Stadium, as A-Rod did not hit No. 600 in New York.

Now, the Yankees and A-Rod head to Cleveland, where they play the Indians at Progressive Field for four games. We wanted to provide the fans with an updated prediction for Progressive Field, where it’s looking like the milestone home run may occur.

Now we have the much anticipated report updated for Progressive Field!

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Blog.

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Using the same methodology that he used before for Yankee Stadium, Hit Tracker’s founder Greg Rybarczyk was able to predict the most likely sections in Progressive Field, based on A-Rod’s scatter plot over the past 4.5 seasons, as well as the sizes of each section in the outfield.

Again, if you want a shot at catching the milestone ball, we suggest grabbing a seat in one of these sections below that have the highest percentage chance of the ball landing there!

The most likely sections at Progressive Field are: 1. Section 182 (15.9 percent chance) 2. Section 181 (12.5 percent) 3. Section 183 (10.2 percent) 4. Section 184 (8.0 percent) 5. Section 180 (7.7 percent)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

Hit Tracker was able to predict an average path of flight for A-Rod’s home run balls while using their database of his home runs.

The ball that travels along that pass was to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6 in Yankee Stadium.

However, in Progressive Field, that path concludes in the aisle, specifically Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat between section 180 and section 181.

The fan in the “The Money Seat” has the highest probability of catching the ball!

Please note that even though Section 182 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 181.

The Layout of Progressive Gives Fans a Great Chance at Catching the Ball

We interviewed Zack Hample, arguably the best ball snagger in the world and author of two books on the topic included in his most famous work "Watching Baseball Smarter" (please note we are not an affiliate).

Hample has caught thousands of balls in his lifetime, including the last Mets home run hit at Shea Stadium and Barry Bonds’ 724th home run. In this interview, Hample stated, “Lateral movement is the key to catching home run balls and Progressive Field has a layout that makes this possible. As a result, Progressive is one of the best stadiums to snag home runs.” (Check back with us for a detailed interview with Zack, including additional expert tips)

Progressive Field in Cleveland allows for more room to move left and right (as opposed to being confined to the seat you are sitting in), and thus gives fans who are not positioned in the exact seat more of an opportunity to catch the milestone home run ball.

Aside from “The Money Seat” and Section 182, another good spot to wait for the home run ball is the party porch in left field (8.9 percent chance of the ball landing there), which is also known as the Home Run Porch.

The Secondary Ticket Market Reacts

Historically, seats in the most likely sections for A-Rod’s 600th to land at Progressive Field have transacted below the overall season average for tickets at Progressive.

The most likely section (182) has the lowest average transaction ticket prices of the three at 55 percent below the season average (section 181 is historically 47 percent below the season average).

As noted in the chart above, the average transaction ticket price for tickets in Section 182 at Progressive is $18.45, the section which has the highest probability of A-Rod’s 600th HR ball landing there, is $18.45.

This is based on historical transaction data, but we also looked at the average current listing prices in this section to see the price that you could actually buy a ticket for today on the secondary market.

Fortunately, it looks like you can still get into these sections for pretty cheap, which is great for fans looking to snag number 600 (much cheaper than what we saw for Yankees ticket prices).

The Secondary Ticket Market Reacts (cont.)

As you can see, the secondary ticket market is not reacting much to A-Rod’s 600th home run out in left field, as you can currently get tickets in the left field bleachers below the season average and below face value in many cases.

However, if you check out our new detailed team data pages, you will see that Indians ticket prices are overall much higher on average, which we would expect with the Yankees in town.

Note that we do not have another Yankees at Cleveland series to compare to, so we can’t determine the incremental rise due to A-Rod’s imminent 600th.

A-Rod's 600th Home Run: The Timing

The Yankees have four games in a row versus Cleveland, followed by three versus the Rays in Tampa Bay.

It is likely that he will hit one in the next seven road games—specifically, there is a 65 percent chance he hits number 600 in Cleveland. In the event that he does not hit a home run in Cleveland, we will have an updated report for Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay.

For Yankee fans, hang onto hope, there is just under a 20 percent chance that he has not hit number 600 before returning for the next home stand.

Summary

For the best shot at cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run, try to get tickets in sections 181, 182, or 183.
“The Money Seat” is located in section 181, row J, the aisle seat between section 180 and section 181.

Aisle seats are best, because they allow the best opportunity to move laterally throughout your section.

Sections 181, 182, and 183 are being listed below the season average for those sections and, in many cases, below face value.

A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions.

There is a 65 percent chance A-Rod hits his 600th during the upcoming Cleveland series, making this the most likely stretch for the milestone to occur.

The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 if they decide to sell it at auction.

Best of luck catching the ball. For further inquiries, reach out to justin[at]seatgeek.com.

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