Professional Table Setters: Power Ranking MLB's 30 Leadoff Hitters
By (Contributor) on July 23, 2010
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Hitting leadoff is one of the most important, yet undervalued jobs in baseball.
It seems lost on some managers in baseball today, that the leadoff spot in a lineup isn't merely where you put a fast guy who can steal a few bases.
Crafting a lineup is really just apportioning playing time among the members of your team. Each lineup spot gets, on average, 20 more plate appearances throughout a season than the spot below it. Ergo, a leadoff hitter should be the man you want at the plate more than anyone else on the team.
The leadoff hitter's job is above all—to get on base. It helps if he's an intimidating force on the basepaths. Affecting a pitcher's concentration as he pitches to the heart of the lineup is always beneficial. But if he's a guy who runs whenever he feels like it, gets caught a lot and kills more rallies than he starts, then you've got a problem.
Some leadoff hitters in baseball today are a break from the traditional mold. And a lot of them are on contending teams. This is more than a coincidence. We're going to soon see a change in the winds regarding what skills are valued in a leadoff hitter, and which are overrated.
I have put together a power ranking of the 30 leadoff hitters in baseball, factoring in the following statistics: on base percentage, slugging percentage, runs created (Bill James' statistic that measures total offensive output), and stolen bases. Some are weighed more heavily than others, and I used my judgment to determine which of them really performed the job of leadoff hitter the best.
Enjoy and please comment with your opinions!
30. Coco Crisp
OBP: .291 (30)
OPS: .770 (9)
Runs Created: 13 (30)
Steals: 8
Coco Crisp, plagued by injuries for a large portion of the year, is not the same hitter he used to be. Fans in Oakland should hope that this is just a post-rehab slump he's going through, because they need him to spark that lineup.
29. Ryan Theriot
OBP: .313 (T-28)
OPS: .623 (29)
Runs Created: 35 (T-24)
Steals: 16 (T-14)
Ryan Theriot used to get on base at clips comparable to the best in the business. This season he's severely lacking in that department and sharing leadoff duties with Kosuke Fukudome, who isn't much better.
28. Trevor Crowe
OBP: .315 (T-26)
OPS: .664 (26)
Runs Created: 27 (28)
Steals: 10
Crowe is, and probably always will be, best known for having been the 28th out of a perfect game. His season stats are no more than you'd expect from a bench player, and definitely not leadoff material. He's young, though, so time will tell if he can mature into a decent hitter.
27. Jose Tabata
OBP: .335 (T-17)
OPS: .699 (23)
Runs Created: 18 (29)
Steals: 9
With Andrew McCutchen's inevitable move down to third in the lineup, the rookie Jose Tabata now gets a chance to show what he can do at leadoff. So far, it seems the kid has potential, but his limited experience leaves him pretty low on my rankings.
26. Nyjer Morgan
OBP: .316 (25)
OPS: .634 (28)
Runs Created: 37 (22)
Steals: 21 (6)
Nyjer Morgan has got plenty of speed, but hasn't quite figured out how to use it on the base paths. He's gotten caught stealing nearly as many times (13) as he's been successful (21). Thirteen times caught stealing means 13 rallies killed, and, well, you do the math. How many more games might the Nats have won if they had just told him to stay at first?
25. Jerry Hairston
OBP: .313 (T-28)
OPS: .676 (25)
Runs Created: 36 (23)
Steals: 7
The Padres have experimented with several different guys at leadoff this year, none of whom have really solidified themselves at the role. Hairston is their most recent experiment. The numbers speak for themselves—he's just as unspectacular as the next guy.
24. Corey Patterson
OBP: .330 (21)
OPS: .739 (14)
Runs Created: 30 (26)
Steals: 17 (T-11)
Corey Patterson should not be a leadoff hitter. He doesn't have the plate discipline for it. However, he's a decent hitter, who can steal a base when he has to. That counts for something.
23. Erick Aybar
OBP: .341 (16)
OPS: .709 (T-21)
Runs Created: 45 (T-18)
Steals: 15 (17)
Expectations were high for Erick Aybar this season to come in and fill the spot of Chone Figgins at the top of the Angels' lineup. He has performed, but not quite to the level the Angels hoped he would after his breakout season last year.
22. Juan Pierre
OBP: .325 (23)
OPS: .613 (30)
Runs Created: 38 (21)
Steals: 35 (1)
Juan Pierre just can't get on base the way he used to. When he does, however, blink and he'll be on second base. With no power to speak of either, though, he really is just a one-dimensional threat and that may end up costing the Sox in the long run.
21. Chris Coghlan
OBP: .331 (20)
OPS: .715 (19)
Runs Created: 46 (T-16)
Steals: 9
Chris Coghlan is coming off a massive season slump that saw him removed from the leadoff spot for a short time. He's recently shown flashes of greatness reminiscent of his Rookie-of-the-Year campaign, and he's back in the leadoff spot to stay.
20. Jose Reyes
OBP: .318 (24)
OPS: .731 (15)
Runs Created: 46 (T-16)
Steals: 19 (T-7)
Jose Reyes used to be one of the best in the business, but this year he lacks the plate discipline that he had in his heyday. Walking a mere 19 times in 364 plate appearances in not acceptable in the leadoff spot.
19. Michael Bourn
OBP: .327 (22)
OPS: .653 (27)
Runs Created: 40 (20)
Steals: 29 (2)
Michael Bourn is the fastest guy in the National League, hands down. He just needs to work on the other half of his game, actually getting on base so that he can be the potential threat that he is.
18. Scott Podsednik
OBP: .347 (T-9)
OPS: .725 (16)
Runs Created: 48 (T-14)
Steals: 25 (3)
Podsednik has solidified himself as the everyday leadoff guy for the Royals. He's got a .300 average going for him, but he's a little careless on the basepaths, going 25-for-37 in steal attempts.
17. Dexter Fowler
OBP: .347 (T-9)
OPS: .712 (20)
Runs Created: 28 (27)
Steals: 9
Don't let Fowler's .222 average fool you. There's that old saying, "A walk is as good as a hit." And Dexter Fowler, the man who consistently finds himself getting on base despite his low average, definitely supports the truth of that saying. Once he learns how to hit from the left side a little better he'll truly be a leadoff force to be reckoned with.
16. Felipe Lopez
OBP: .345 (12)
OPS: .753 (13)
Runs Created: 35 (T-24)
Steals: 5
Felipe Lopez has always been solid, never anything more than solid. A guy you can count on to hit around .270 for you and be durable on defense. I'm not so sure he should be the guy leading off for the Cards, but they don't have too many other options.
15. Chris Young
OBP: .332 (19)
OPS: .805 (6)
Runs Created: 58 (T-5)
Steals: 19 (T-7)
Chris Young has proved the skeptics wrong (myself included), this season after causing much doubt the first few years of his career with abysmal hitting. This year, his average is up to a respectable .268, not to mention he's on pace for another 30-home run year. Throw in his steals and Young is, for the first time in his career, the complete package at leadoff.
14. Marco Scutaro
OBP: .344 (T-13)
OPS: .716 (18)
Runs Created: 49 (13)
Steals: 2
Scoot has held down the leadoff spot since his breakout season there last year with Toronto. This year, he's seen a slight decline, most noticeably in his walks. After drawing 90 free passes a year ago, he finds himself more than halfway through the 2010 season with just 37.
13. Shane Victorino
OBP: .315 (T-26)
OPS: .764 (11)
Runs Created: 57 (T-7)
Steals: 18 (10)
Victorino is a guy who can beat you in so many ways. He makes a living by taking the extra base—whether it's turning a double into a triple, going first-to-third, or a straight steal. He's also got a decent amount of power. The problem this year is he's not hitting up to his usual standards.
12. Denard Span
OBP: .343 (15)
OPS: .709 (T-21)
Runs Created: 52 (11)
Steals: 17 (T-11)
Denard Span is solid all around. He gets the nod for me over a lot of the other fast guys in baseball because he's very selective and smart about when he steals. He's only been caught stealing once this year in 18 attempts. Luck might have a little to do with it, but you can't deny his improvement from last year (23-for-33). If he can get that .269 average up, he'll be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball.
11. Derek Jeter
OBP: .335 (T-17)
OPS: .718 (17)
Runs Created: 50 (12)
Steals: 10
Shocker time: The Captain doesn't even crack the top 10.
His numbers have taken a noticeable dive this year, but he's still the same hustler, grinder, and intelligent force on the field that he's always been. That's the reason the Yankees choose to keep him hitting first, even while they've got one of the fastest guys in baseball, Brett Gardner, hitting down at the bottom of the lineup.
I do respect the Yanks' decision to keep him up at leadoff. However, there are ten guys in baseball I'd take over him.
10. Ben Zobrist
OBP: .379 (2)
OPS: .766 (10)
Runs Created: 57 (T-7)
Steals: 19 (T-7)
Ben Zobrist continues to surprise everyone, doesn't he? After taking the world by storm as a power-hitting utility man last year, this year he's... what? Hitting leadoff?
Let's get this straight. Ben Zobrist is not a leadoff hitter. He's just been placed there temporarily because all the other candidates the Rays have such as Jason Bartlett and B.J. Upton have not been producing up to par. Being a guy you'd normally see hitting third or fourth, Zobrist is putting up sensational numbers. The reason he's this low in the rankings, however, is that he hasn't been hitting leadoff for much of the year and will probably not be staying there.
9. Elvis Andrus
OBP: .358 (8)
OPS: .677 (24)
Runs Created: 45 (T-18)
Steals: 24 (4)
The Rangers' blend of speed and power is what makes their lineup one of the toughest in baseball to face, and Andrus is a big part of that. With no power whatsoever, he gets on base and provides some serious speed. The Rangers have let him loose on the bases, which although is intimidating, sometimes backfires. Andrus has only been successful in 24 of 36 steal attempts, a 66.7 percent rate.
8. Fred Lewis
OBP: .344 (T-13)
OPS: .800 (7)
Runs Created: 48 (T-14)
Steals: 10
Fred Lewis made a big splash upon his trade to Toronto but has since cooled off a bit. All together, his numbers are still pretty good. He's a threat to steal, hit a triple in the gap, or even hit the long ball. He's someone you've definitely got to pitch to carefully.
7. Austin Jackson
OBP: .361 (7)
OPS: .776 (8)
Runs Created: 53 (10)
Steals: 16 (T-14)
Austin Jackson's rookie campaign is about as good as they come. He isn't a power threat, and his strikeout numbers are a little high, but he still gets the job done. Also, getting on base in front of Miguel Cabrera is a very important job.
6. Brandon Phillips
OBP: .347 (T-9)
OPS: .818 (5)
Runs Created: 61 (3)
Steals: 11
After having spent most of his career hitting in the No. 2 or No. 3 slot, Dusty Baker decided to move him up to leadoff on a whim. Look no further than the Reds' surprising success this year to see how that move worked out.
Phillips is a huge contributor and one of the main reasons why the Reds are in contention. He's working toward career highs in nearly every offensive category. His home run numbers are slightly down, but only because he's adjusted to hitting leadoff and has traded some of his power for more contact. He can still find some pop in his bat when he needs to, though.
5. Martin Prado
OBP: .362 (6)
OPS: .845 (3)
Runs Created: 70 (2)
Steals: 4
Martin Prado has been among the league leaders in hitting all year, no there's no question this guy can swing the bat. He also uses the whole field better than anyone I've seen.
He isn't your prototypical leadoff hitter in that he lacks patience at the plate and he's not so much a threat to steal. However uncharacteristic he may be, the Braves are winning. There are plenty of teams that wish they had a leadoff guy who could hit at a .320 clip.
4. Rafael Furcal
OBP: .393 (1)
OPS: .915 (1)
Runs Created: 58 (T-5)
Steals: 16 (T-14)
He leads the National League in hitting, he can steal bases, and he's got a little bit of pop. What more could you want at the top of the order?
3. Andres Torres
OBP: .370 (4)
OPS: .853 (2)
Runs Created: 55 (9)
Steals: 17 (T-11)
The 32-year-old journeyman has finally found a home in San Francisco and he is earning his starting spot. He seems to be the catalyst to every Giants' rally, and when he's not the one getting on base, he's the one driving in runs. His 28 doubles are second in the league to Jayson Werth's 29. With the added element of speed, he's the complete package at the leadoff spot. A guy who, if he gets on base with no one out, a pitcher knows it's going to be a rough inning.
2. Rickie Weeks
OBP: .374 (3)
OPS: .843 (4)
Runs Created: 74 (1)
Steals: 6
Rickie Weeks is having a true breakout year in Milwaukee. Always a solid on-base guy, this year he has learned how to walk and get plunked at alarming rates. Seventeen hit by pitches by the all-star break is just absurd. He's also found his power stroke, already having surpassed his career high home run total. He provides a dangerous bat at the top of the lineup that pitchers know they can't make mistakes to.
He's also only sat out one game all season. For a manager, there is no relief greater than being able to pencil one guy's name in on the lineup card at leadoff day after day, and not have to worry about it. Especially a guy putting up those kind of numbers.
1. Ichiro
OBP: .366 (5)
OPS: .760 (12)
Runs Created: 59 (4)
Steals: 22 (5)
The man might be the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. Even in somewhat of a down year, he's still the best table-setter in the game. One can't help but imagine what his numbers would look like if he actually had a decent supporting cast hitting behind him to drive him in.
Even so, when he gets on base he can singlehandedly manufacture runs simply by being such an intimidating presence on the basepaths. At 36 years old, he hasn't lost a step.
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