Bleacher Report's College Football Top25: Week 14

Ready for the BCS version of chaos theory?

Only six games matter this week—the three conference championships plus the contests featuring West Virginia, USC, and Hawaii.

But the butterfly effect that they could set off is mind-blowing. 

Here are the three most obvious national title scenarios:

West Virginia and Missouri both win: West Virginia vs. Missouri
West Virginia wins, Missouri loses: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
West Virginia loses, Missouri wins: Missouri vs. Ohio State

However, if the Mountaineers and Tigers are both knocked off, all hell will break loose.
 
After all, teams No. 3 through 5 in the BCS standings are idle this week.  And as the saying goes, idle hands are the devil’s tools.

Voting totals in parentheses.  Strength of schedule based on cumulative record of past opposition.

#1  West Virginia  10-1  (383)
Previous:  3
Strength of Schedule: 34
Last Week:  Beat UConn 66-21
This Week:  Pittsburgh (+27.5)

West Virginia has already wrapped up the Big East title and a spot in the BCS, but the matchup with Pittsburgh has a championship game feel.

Not because of the Panthers 4-7 record, mind you—and it doesn't have anything to do with Dave Wannstedt’s sweet 'stache, either. 

The 100th installment of the Backyard Brawl is West Virginia’s final hurdle in the dash to New Orleans. 

Pittsburgh is brutal on the road, having lost six in a row and 11 of 14. Hence the four touchdown spread on Saturday.

The Mountaineers don’t have to cover though—they just have to win. 

Even an ugly victory will wrap up an 11-1 campaign against a top-40 schedule—and will be enough to stave off Ohio State and Georgia, who will be watching with white knuckles. 

#2  Missouri  11-1  (379)
Previous:  3
Strength of Schedule: 19
Last Week:  Beat Kansas 36-28
This Week:  Oklahoma, Big 12 Championship (-3)

Missouri is already 11-1—but in the unbalanced world of college football, the Show-Me State stands to lose it all this weekend as underdogs in the Big 12 title game.

The Big 12 undoubtedly deserves two BCS invitations—the maximum allowed any member conference. But cynics like me can see it coming already: 

Despite winning the North, Mizzou will miss out on college football’s most lucrative party if they fall this weekend. 

And of all teams, the two-loss Tigers will lose out to the idle, one-loss Kansas program they beat at a neutral site one week ago.

That said, the matchup in San Antonio should be far different from the one in Norman earlier this season. The Sooners are without Auston English, who wreaked havoc on Chase Daniel back in October. They’ve also lost tailback DeMarco Murray.

On the other hand, Missouri adds their star back to the rematch. Senior Tony Temple missed the prior meeting with OU due to an ankle injury—which helps explain Mizzou’s season-low 57 rushing yards.

#3  Ohio State  11-1  (350)
Previous:  6
Strength of Schedule: 47
Last Week:  Off
This Week:  End of regular season

The Buckeyes finished their regular season slate fifth in the BCS.  Up two spots this week, and needing just one more chip to fall, the Bucks stand a very good chance of returning to their second consecutive BCS Championship Game. 

Wonder if they’re working on defending the spread.

#4  Georgia  10-2  (345)
Previous:  7
Strength of Schedule: 16
Last Week:  Beat Georgia Tech 31-17
This Week:  End of regular season

So far, the scenario has played out just the way we thought it would: 

Tennessee won out, edging Georgia for the SEC East’s spot in the conference championship game.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs continue to rise in the polls—and thanks to an LSU loss, are now the conference’s highest-ranked team. 

As a result, Uga is guaranteed a trip to the BCS, but as we predicted stands no chance of traveling to New Orleans. 

After all, you can’t be national champions without being division champions within your own conference…can you?

Here’s where the hypotheticals start to spiral out of control. 

What happens if West Virginia, Missouri, and LSU all lose?  Georgia is currently the highest-rated two-loss program, and has a better strength of schedule than every other Top 10 team save Virginia Tech. 

That indicates that the Mountaineers and Tigers would fall in line behind the Bulldogs should they lose on Saturday.

Tennessee—as the SEC Champion—would have to vault from 14th to 2nd in the BCS to overtake Georgia. Impossible. 

With a win over UCLA, USC could leapfrog Georgia.  But that too is unlikely, considering the Trojans’ relative schedule strength.

Is a win over Missouri enough to catapult Oklahoma from ninth to second? Doubtful.

As it stands, it seems safe to say that Georgia and Ohio State will both back into the BCS title game if Missouri, West Virginia, and LSU all lose this weekend.  The only thing that could prevent that outcome is if the human voters conscientiously cast ballots to avoid it.

#5  Kansas  11-1  (325)
Previous:  2
Strength of Schedule: 82
Last Week: Lost to Missouri 36-28
This Week: End of regular season

There have been several comments—both in this forum and others—regarding Ohio State’s needing to run the table in order to justify a national championship berth, given the Buckeyes’ strength of schedule. 

Well, the same can be said of the Jayhawks, who endured a rude awakening from their dream season last weekend. 

Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International aren’t going to cut it— especially for a program without the benefit of Ohio State’s name recognition.

But the Jayhawks do deserve a spot in the BCS, and will probably get a berth regardless of what happens in San Antonio. 

A Missouri win guarantees KU the Big 12’s second invitation. So as incongruous as it may feel, Kansas fans better root for the Tigers.

#6  USC  9-2  (304)
Previous:  11
Strength of Schedule: 82
Last Week: Beat Arizona State 44-24
This Week: UCLA (+19.5)

Last year’s loss to UCLA cost USC a chance to play in the national title game. This year, in addition to pure vengeance, a win over the Bruins could conceivably mean an opportunity to play for BCS redemption.

If you watched the Trojans dismantle Arizona State on Thanksgiving Day, you know they’re talented, experienced, and healthy enough to play for the crystal ball. Whether they deserve that opportunity isn’t so straightforward. 

Like Georgia, USC’s only hope is that Missouri and West Virginia both lose.  Troy also needs Boston College to beat Virginia Tech and Tennessee to beat LSU.

Then the question becomes, is a convincing win over UCLA enough to climb over at least two of the idle teams: Kansas, Georgia, and Ohio State. 

#7  LSU  10-2  (300)
Previous:  1
Strength of Schedule: 34
Last Week:  Lost to Arkansas 50-48 3OT
This Week:  Tennessee, SEC Championship (+7.5)

Apparently, Les isn’t more. 

And after Darren McFadden trampled their BCS title hopes, you have to wonder if the Bayou faithful want any more of Les.

To continue the theme of championship scenarios, let’s make LSU’s case for staying home January 7th. 

Again, the top two—who control their own destiny—must falter.  And if you don’t believe that can happen, ask Coach Miles.

Of course, the Tigers must handle their business against Tennessee in Atlanta.

Assuming LSU wins convincingly, doesn’t a two-overtime-loss program deserve a title try more than Ohio State…and more than a Georgia team that didn’t even earn the right to play for the SEC title…and more than a Kansas squad that played a schedule half as challenging…and more than the Hokies they smoked head-to-head?

The leap from No. 7 to No. 2 in the BCS is improbable at best.  But intuitively, the champion of the best conference in football should be playing on the final night of the season.

#8  Hawaii  11-0  (279)
Previous:  13
Strength of Schedule: 117
Last Week:  Beat Boise State 39-27
This Week:  Washington (+13.5)

Forget intuition—Hawaii is one win away from a perfect season. 

And this would be the perfect year to send the Rainbows to the BCS title game. 

Are you going to be satisfied that the winner of West Virginia and Missouri—or worse, Ohio State—is the best team in the country?

As it stands, January is bound to create more questions than answers.  At the very least, we could find out if Hawaii is legit. 

So why not get it out of the way this season?  That way, we don’t have to squabble about unbeaten mid-majors next year. 

And don’t tell me Boise State already proved it. Beating a disinterested Oklahoma on the undercard doesn’t correlate to going toe-to-toe with Florida in the main event.

#9  Oklahoma  10-2  (276)
Previous:  8
Strength of Schedule: 61
Last Week:  Beat Oklahoma State 49-17
This Week:  Missouri, Big 12 Championship (+3)

Finally, we get to one of the causes of what could be a dramatic effect.  (Pittsburgh is the other, but for some reason the Panthers didn’t get any votes this week.)

Shall we count the teams rooting for the Sooners this week? 

Missouri must feel like it’s taking on Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia, USC, LSU, and Hawaii all at once. 

The three-point spread in OU’s favor may surprise some casual observers—but it shouldn’t. With only two exceptions, the Sooners were stellar all season. 

One of those occasions was Sam Bradford’s first Big 12 game…and it was on the road.  The other came when Oklahoma was forced to play without Bradford altogether…and it was on the road. 

Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game will be Bradford’s first, and it won’t be played in Norman.  But at least Oklahoma isn’t cursed with the BCS’ top ranking.

#10  Virginia Tech  10-2  (270)
Previous: 10
Strength of Schedule: 11
Last Week:  Beat Virginia 33-21
This Week:  Boston College, ACC Championship (+4.5)

VaTech isn’t getting nearly the amount of respect from our voters as they are in the BCS computers (BR No. 10, BCS No. 6)—but we’ve got to hand it to the Hokies. 

From the emotional campus tragedy to the emotional rivalry win last weekend, they’ve been resilient throughout.  And they deserve this rematch with Boston College.

For those who don’t remember October 25th, Matt Ryan went Doug Flutie in Blacksburg, rallying the Eagles to victory with two touchdowns in the final three minutes. 

That loss effectively ended Virginia Tech’s national championship aspirations.  Boston College saw its hopes dashed one week later. 

Fast forward six weeks, and the same two teams will fight for the ACC title and the conference’s only spot in the 2007 Bowl Championship Series.

#11  Florida   (9-3)
Previous:  12
Strength of Schedule: 5
Last Week:  Beat Florida State 45-12
This Week:  End regular season

#12  Boston College  (10-2)
Previous:  16
Strength of Schedule: 29
Last Week:  Beat Miami 28-14
This Week:  Virginia Tech, ACC Championship (-4.5)

#13  Arizona State  (9-2)
Previous:  5
Strength of Schedule: 50
Last Week:  Lost to USC 44-24
This Week:  Arizona (+7)

#14  Tennessee (9-3)
Previous:  19
Strength of Schedule: 26
Last Week:  Beat Kentucky 52-50 4OT
This Week: LSU, SEC Championship (-7.5)

#15  Illinois  (9-3)
Previous:  18
Strength of Schedule: 7
Last Week:  Off
This Week:  End of regular season

#16  Clemson   (9-3)
Previous:  22
Strength of Schedule: 25
Last Week:  Beat South Carolina 23-21
This Week:  End of regular season

#17  Texas  (9-3)
Previous:  14
Strength of Schedule: 63
Last Week:  Lost to Texas A&M 38-30
This Week:  End of regular season

#18  BYU  (9-2)
Previous:  21
Strength of Schedule: 42
Last Week:  Beat Utah 17-10
This Week:  San Diego State (+15)

#19  Virginia  (9-3)
Previous:  15
Strength of Schedule: 74
Last Week:  Lost to Virginia Tech 33-21
This Week:  End of regular season

#20 Wisconsin  (9-3)
Previous:  23
Strength of Schedule: 51
Last Week:  Off
This Week:  End of regular season

#21  Cincinnati  (9-3)
Previous:  24
Strength of Schedule: 49
Last Week:  Beat Syracuse 52-31
This Week:  End of regular season

#22  Auburn  (8-4)
Previous:  NR
Strength of Schedule: 24
Last Week:  Beat Alabama 17-10
This Week:  End of regular season

#23  Boise State  (10-2)
Previous:  17
Strength of Schedule: 108
Last Week:  Lost to Hawaii
This Week:  End of regular season

#24 Oregon  (8-3)
Previous:  9
Strength of Schedule: 13
Last Week:  Lost to UCLA 16-0
This Week:  Oregon State (No Line)

#25  South Florida (9-3)
Previous:  25
Strength of Schedule: 14
Last Week:  Beat Pittsburgh 48-37
This Week:  End of regular season


Others receiving votes:  Arkansas, Michigan, Air Force, Connecticut, Troy, Texas Tech, UCF, Alabama, Navy, Kentucky.

Be sure to check out the full slate of pollster comments and Heisman rankings from Week 14.

The Bleacher Report Top25 is college football’s most inclusive and transparent ranking system.  Our voting pool includes campus writers, bloggers, and members of our own community.  If you’d like more information on joining this college football fraternity, send an email to trey@bleacherreport.com.

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