MLB First-Half Surprises: Separating The Flukes From The Stars

In a Major League season full of surprises, 2010 has brought on a handful of unexpected producers during the first half of the season.

Whether it has been the utter dominance of young pitchers, or the outburst of power from the big bats, there are veterans bouncing back, and many potential stars in the making.

Between some of baseball's younger generation and some of the old, a wide variety of players have stood out on an unexpected level.

On the other hand, some of the early surprises of 2010 could be just a brief flash of stardom rather than more permanent dominance.

Whether they are for real, or just a flash in the pan, here is a breakdown of 25 of baseball's biggest producers in the first half of 2010 that were definitely not predicted to perform as well as they have.

Jose Bautista, Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista is easily the biggest case of breakout power thus far in 2010.

He had managed to put up double-digit totals in home runs for a handful of seasons now, but his 24 first-half home runs were already a career high.

In fact, his previous season high in home runs was just 16 back in 2006.

Bautista was named to the AL All-Star team for his first appearance in the Midsummer Classic.

He has even gotten attention to the point where teams like the Atlanta Braves have inquired about his availability. He'll continue to attract attention if he continues bombing the ball at such a rampant pace.

But the big question mark around Bautista deals with how long the power lasts. He won't be very useful if the power dissipates, as he is batting just .236 on the year.

A career .238 hitter, Bautista will have a lot of pressure put on him to keep up power that he never has really utilized. Don't be surprised if it gets to him and he fades down the stretch.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Adrian Beltre, Third Baseman, Boston Red Sox

Part of their plan to overhaul their defensive scheme, the Boston Red Sox brought Adrian Beltre in as a piece of an infield wall. The two-time Gold Glover's expectations surrounded his defense rather than his hitting.

Now that he put in an All-Star effort, Red Sox fans must be applauding him even more.

During the first half of 2010, Beltre hit .330 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI. It was a huge step-up from the mediocre averages he has put up for the past couple of years.

The Red Sox need to hope that his hamstring doesn't act up on him at all because he does possess injury proneness.

But he has shown good discipline this year, and it hitting has been too consistent to look down upon.

He's been so consistent in that he has crushed lefty and righty pitching equally both at home and on the road.

If he stays healthy, look for Beltre to keep it up as a leader on this Red Sox club.

Conclusion: For real

Brennan Boesch, Outfielder, Detroit Tigers

Coming into the 2010, Brennan Boesch was just another prospect in the Tigers farm system. Tigers management must have thought highly of the 28 home runs he hit at AA Erie in 2009.

The simple truth is that Boesch was just an unknown name to fans, and baseball wasn't really prepped to hear his name up there with more highly touted rookies like Jason Heyward.

Boesch had no trouble adjusting to big league hitting. In the first half, he hit 12 home runs while batting a ridiculous .342.

Considering that he probably overachieved a bit, his numbers will most likely gravitate.

With the way he crushes left-handed pitching, his average may very well remain above .300.

He is batting an unearthly .446 against left-handed pitching; and this is over the course of 65 at bats, not just a few measly appearances.

If Boesch was going to run into a huge pickle against Major League pitching, he probably would have done so already.

His production will decrease a bit, but he will remain the likely candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

Conclusion: For real

Matt Capps, Right-handed pitcher, Washington Nationals

After dealing with years and years of mediocre closers, the Nats finally landed Matt Capps. He slid into the ninth inning role perfectly throughout most of the first half.

This came as a surprise, considering he is coming off of a rough 2009, in which his overall ERA was a massive 5.80. But being a streaky pitcher will occasionally work in his favor, like this year.

Capps recorded 23 saves during the first half, with a 3.18 ERA. His command as also been on point, as he has cut down on his walks.

He's maintained excellent control, but his WHIP looks big because he has given up more hit than would be desirable.

After last year, it still seems as though he could succumb to streaky pitching at any point. Right-handed hitting is also batting over .300 against him.

Capps is going to have to worry about giving up big hits to keep up his stellar production.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

R.A. Dickey, Right-handed pitcher, New York Mets

Solid knuckleball pitchers seem to never come along in the National League. R.A. Dickey is certainly defying that notion as he turned in a ton of quality starts for the Mets this year.

In 10 first half starts, Dickey went 6-2, posting an impressive 2.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. His 48 strikeouts are surprising from a knuckleballer.

It could be that he's getting better with age. The 36-year old has never seen this kind of success before. That only will lead many to view him as a fluke, especially until the NL figures him out.

Based on the recent history of knuckleball pitchers, and the lack of them, it doesn't seem likely that Dickey will experience any long-term success.

His strikeout numbers might not hold up down the stretch. He might be a good option in the Mets rotation right now while he's hot, but he may go down as nothing more than the 2010 version of Aaron Small.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Doug Fister, Right-handed pitcher, Seattle Mariners

Fister is another soft-tossing pitcher who was riding on cruise control throughout the first half of the year.

He battled injury, but strung together some quality starts. He went 3-4 with a 3.09 ERA. His command got better, and his WHIP dropped even further from where it was in 2009.

Now with Cliff Lee out of the rotation, if the Mariners are interested in winning games, they will look to Fister and other surprises like Jason Vargas to fill void.

Fister can't even be compared to Lee or King Felix at the top of the rotation.

His control will be there, but he is vulnerable to the long ball. He'll be pitching in division with two contenders in the Angels and Rangers who will be looking to add power to their lineup, and the could work against him.

If Fister threw a bit harder, he might be more effective in the long run, but his ceiling doesn't seem to be very high otherwise.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Jaime Garcia, Left-handed pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals

Garcia has arguably made the biggest rookie splash of 2010, having gotten off to a white hot start. In April and March, he started four games in which he surrendered only three earned runs.

His first half numbers were also extremely impressive. In 17 starts, a lot for a rookie, Garcia went 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 80 strikeouts.

For a guy who's status as a prospect had fluctuated, his pitching has been astounding.

The only people who could have foreseen this were those who truly believed Tony La Russa in spring training when he said Garcia was his best-looking starting pitcher.

He'll have a lot to live up to in the second half, so don't be alarmed if his numbers aren't has high up as they were in the first. But he is a hard thrower and is tough on lefty batters.

Pitching behind the likes of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, two Cy Young candidates, Garcia will learn much and develop very nicely.

Conclusion: For real

Brett Gardner, Outfielder, New York Yankees

It was shocking to hear many Yankee players throw Gardner under the bus prior to the 2010 season.

But since then, he really has turned him some phenomenal baserunning and contact hitting. So Gardner's numbers this year might be a pleasant surprise to many.

The underlying statistic that spoke a lot about Gardner was his 2009 batting against left-handed pitching. A lefty hitter himself, Gardner hit a good comfortable .291 against southpaws.

During the first half of 2010, Gardner has been a textbook speedy outfielder. He hit .309 with 25 steals, and showed off some pop with five home runs.

He is quick on his feet and is a solid defensive presence in the outfield. Needless to say, the Yankees will benefit from his athleticism for a long time.

Conclusion: For real

Corey Hart, Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Everyone was aware of Corey Hart's power potential. But it had been a few years since he put it to good use in 2007.

By the mid-way point of 2010, Hart was swinging for the fences in the Home Run Derby after posting 21 first half home runs.

Now he is clearly on pace to break his career high of 24 in one season. He'll likely do so.

With his numbers declining for the past several years, his return to form may not have been anticipated. But now, Hart is what he is; a straightforward power hitter.

He doesn't show off the greatest discipline, but he has strong swing that could keep him amongst the league leaders in home runs for a long time.

Hart will need to make sure his power doesn't fluctuate like it has in the past. He has stabilized his swing, and at the very least, he should serve his purpose as a slugger.

For that reason, he should continue to be an effective hitter.

Conclusion: For real

Ubaldo Jimenez, Right-handed pitcher, Colorado

Many baseball fanatics and analysts were aware of Ubaldo Jimenez and knew that he was on the rise, but nobody could have predicted the kind of dominance he has turned in thus far.

His solid material began to show itself last year, but he flourished during the first half this year.

His no-hitter against the Braves really sealed the deal for him as quality starter this year, and he has looked completely dominant at times.

His 113 strikeouts, 15-1 record, 2.20 ERA and minuscule 1.04 WHIP all are some of the best numbers in baseball.

Another key is that he is proving that he can pitch well at Coors Field. He hasn't lost a game at home yet.

He as all the makings for an excellent pitcher in the long run, and maybe in line to win his first career Cy Young Award this year if he keeps it up.

It will be tough for him to double his first half production, but Jimenez is here to stay.

Conclusion: For real

Kelly Johnson, Second baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks

The early 2010 season was very kind to Johnson, as he got off to a very quick start in terms of power; power that was very unexpected. His 14 first half homers put him at two shy of his career high of 16 in a season.

Johnson, a lefty hitter, bat .286 against left-handed pitching and .276 overall in the first half. Not too bad for a batter coming off of a 2009 in which he hit just .224 with eight home runs.

The ways his hard-hitting numbers have slowed down could be a cause for concern, and could expose him as the average power hitter that he actually is.

After the nine home runs he hit in March and April, his production has hit a wall, having hit only two home runs in June and July.

If he can't find his power, there will be more added pressure for him to hit more regularly. It isn't surprising that he has faded a bit, he just doesn't have the makeup of a consistent power hitter.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Paul Konerko, First baseman, Chicago White Sox

It was a general assumption that Konerko's power was finally dissipating, but he has really turned that ideal around this year. He hasn't hit over 30 home runs in a season since 2007, but he is on pace for well more than that this year.

He smacked a total of 20 first half home runs this year, all while managing to bat .299, some of his best hitting since he hit over .300 back in 2006. He's beginning to raise his OBP; hitting all these home runs is making it easier from him to be patient as pitchers throw around him.

Konerko also wants to win as much, if not more, as the next guy. He is on an interesting White Sox club that is threatening to make a run at the division, a run that comes as a surprise to many. After putting together a very good-looking comeback year, he could produce even more down the stretch on a White Sox team that is dreaming big.

Conclusion: For real

Mat Latos, Right-handed pitcher, San Diego Padres

Mat Latos surfaced in the Padres rotation last year. Currently, his production is being stifled be a stint on the DL brought by a sneeze, but that must not take away from his first half production.

Before going down, he certainly possessed some of the best command out of all the young pitchers in baseball. During the first half, he led the National League in WHIP (0.96).

For a solid young pitcher to display this type of control has to be a sign of potential greatness. He also has 99 first half k's to his name.

Right now, his record stands at 10-4, with a 2.45 ERA and a complete game shut out.

Latos looks like the whole package and it is more surprising that he didn't make the All-Star team this year. Latos is another young pitcher with a very bright future.

Conclusion: For real

Mike Leake, Right-handed pitcher, Cincinnati Reds

If anyone thought that a pitcher could come straight out of college, skip the minors, and find some success immediately at the Major League level; others would look at that person like they had an extra head.

But young Mike Leake is doing just that, having skipped the minors to start for the Reds.

Concerns will definitely arise of his command, however. Leake may struggle down the road when it comes to keeping his control up on a contending club, but the Reds may find flexibility in Leake's role if he struggles.

Also, Leake gives up a lot of long balls, but it hasn't stopped him from winning games.

With Leake, the good outweighs the bad, During the first half of 2010, the young gun went 6-1 in 17 starts with a 3.53 ERA and 70 strikeouts.

He is showing way too much promise for a young player with his technical lack of experience, for anyone to turn away from him. He may have some struggles, but he is off to a quick start.

Conclusion: For real

Evan Meek, Right-handed pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates

The righty reliever represented the Pirates in the 2010 All-Star Game. It was technically a award that he earned because he put up some great numbers out of a weak Pirates bullpen.

The hard-thrower could find himself a closing gig in the future, especially if he continues pitching this well.

In 40 first half appearances this year, Meek posted a 4-3 record with an impeccable 1.07 ERA. He allowed six earned runs in 48.2 innings pitched.

He's also picked up 45 strikeouts while holding his WHIP at 0.94. He's got the makings of a closer, and could land a role like that in the future. His young developing arm could definitely have more in store.

Conclusion: For real

Miguel Olivo, Catcher, Colorado Rockies

There really isn't any denying Olivo's production, even though he's been an up and down overall hitter throughout most of his career.

But his first half of 2010 was almost All-Star worthy. He hit a career high .325 and hit 12 home runs, putting him on pace for a potential career high.

His overall hitting has been a roller coaster from year to year. A career .249 hitter, he can go from batting .300, to .250, to .220, to back up to .300 again.

Simply put, don't expect any consistent long-term production from Olivo.

As long as he is hitting at Coors Field, he'll be fine. He's hitting .400 there this year. Generally speaking though, Olivo is an average hitter benefiting from everyday playing.

Conlusion: Flash in the pan

Angel Pagan, Outfielder, New York Mets

The potential of Angel Pagan has been there for years, but he never had the opportunity to flourish because he always has struggled to stay healthy.

The biggest surprise of Pagan's 2010 is that he has avoided injury. His newfound health contributed to a great first half of this season.

With healthy legs, Pagan burst onto the basepaths this year with 19 first half steals, making him an underrated base stealer in the NL.

The switch hitter has picked up six home runs while posting a .315 batting average in the first half.

If he stays healthy, his will continue to produce regularly. It also doesn't seem as though he will lose all that much playing time despite the return of center fielder Carlos Beltran.

He can field just as well in right. Pagan has been a pleasant surprise this year, and is a great all-around player who can continue putting up numbers.

Conclusion: For real

Carl Pavano, Right-handed pitcher, Minnesota Twins

Sporting his new mustached look in 2010, Pavano has turned in some pitching that has helped label him an ace by some for the Minnesota Twins.

For a pitcher with a career 4.35 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has pitched exceedingly well.

In 18 first-half starts, Pavano went 10-6 with a 3.58 ERA. He walked only 18 in 125.2 innings pitched.

It has always seemed like Pavano has thrived in the smaller markets, explaining why he struggled on a team like the Yankees.

Pavano has really isolated his command and improved it, and at this rate he can put together a full season that is almost as good as his 2004 in Florida.

Conclusion: For real

Andy Pettitte, Left-handed pitcher, New York Yankees

For a 38-year old southpaw, Andy Pettitte has certainly exceeded all expectations of him in the first half of 2010.

One of the good guys in baseball, Pettitte is now in trouble via injury, but his first-half numbers are cemented in the books.

In 17 starts in the first half, he went 11-2 with a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.14.

He didn't lose a game in seven starts away from Yankee Stadium. Pettitte must now battle groin problems, and might land a spot on the disabled list.

With is age and health in question, his return will be highly anticipated, but he will be at risk of succumbing to his question marks.

He hasn't maintained a season ERA of under three since 2005 with the Astros.

It wouldn't be all that surprising if he isn't exactly the same when he comes back again, although he could still be extremely effective against lefty hitting.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Scott Podsednik, Outfielder, Kansas City Royals

After being an irregular and inconsistent force in baseball for years, Podsednik had a good looking 2009. It would have been hard to believe that he could string a pair of solid years in a row, but he is doing just that.

He hit .301 in the first half while swiping 25 bags. Like much of Kansas City, Podsednik has hit very well with runners in scoring position and he's been clutch against southpaw pitching as well.

The Podfather is a career .279 hitter. That isn't too bad, but based on his tendency to fall in and out of baseball, Podsednik could just as easily fade on a basement-dwelling Royals organization. His speediest days are behind him as well.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Martin Prado, Second baseman, Atlanta Braves

Here is another case of an emerging player who has managed to exceed their lofty potential.

Braves fans knew that Prado would be a formidable second baseman, but little did they know that he would make the All-Star team and that he would be contending for a batting title halfway through the 2010 season.

Prado batted .300 last year with 11 home runs, and there was no telling that he would up his production even more into 2010.

His first half was almost untouchable, at least by any other NL second baseman. He posted 10 home runs, already approaching a career high.

He also hit .325, giving the Braves some of the most consistent hitting in the league.

Prado collected 121 first half hits, and he currently leads the NL with 125. He is definitely a star down in Atlanta because of his good approach to hitting and his scrappy play.

Second basemen like Prado do not develop often, and he sure is fun to watch.

Conclusion: For real

David Price, Left-handed pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays

Price broke out in the first half of 2010; such a breakout that he received the starting nod in the All-Star game.

Kudos to Price for living up to the hype surrounding him, especially when confidence in him may have deteriorated after an okay 2009 showing.

The great numbers seem to be endless. Left-handed hitters hit under .200 against him. His ERA at home in eight starts was just 2.04.

He has also thrown a pair of complete games and currently leads the AL in wins and ERA.

On the whole in the first half of 2010, Price went 12-4 with a 2.42 ERA in 17 starts. He struck out 100 and secured a WHIP of 1.19.

He is an excellent overall athlete and he throws fireballs. David Price is on a tear this year and definitely has the makeup of being the real deal in the long-term now that he has settled into his role.

Conclusion: For real

Carlos Silva, Right-handed pitcher, Chicago Cubs

Carlos Silva is generally recognized as an underachiever. He has the ability to throw pretty hard, but he has struggled for years dating back to 2006.

Silva's ERA with Seattle last year was a nasty 8.60 ERA in six starts. There were really no expectations of Silva coming into the NL for the first time since 2003. He really got his act together.

In the first half, he went 9-3 in 17 starts with a 3.45 ERA and 72 strikeouts. His WHIP is sitting pretty at 1.14.

But for a guy who isn't used to having any kind of regular success at all, it will take a lot for him to keep his numbers up. His ERA is already over four on the road, and hitters could gradually take advantage of him if they figure him out.

The bottom line is that his career ERA and WHIP are both unimpressive (4.62 and 1.38). Silva is just can't be an ace on a pitching staff.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Andres Torres, Outfielder, San Francisco Giants

For a Giants club lacking star power in the outfield, Torres got the opportunity to play every day, and he has taken advantage.

A durable and speedy outfielder, Torres has looked just like that for San Francisco this year.

Having stole only six bases in 75 games with limited play time last year, Torres' 2010 greatly exceeds that. He's swiped 17 bases in 80 games while batting .281 in the first half.

A switch hitter, Torres excelled from the right-hand side of the plate, but needs to work on his left-handed swing.

It is difficult to tell if Torres is actually a Major League caliber threat. He is a career .272 hitter in the minors, and power really isn't a big part of his game, despite his eight big league dingers this year.

But he still has done a solid job of working out walks and getting on base. He's a decent all-around player but isn't necessarily a star in the league.

His future as a starter on the Giants could even be murky if the team makes a handful of moves to upgrade the outfield.

Conclusion: Flash in the pan

Delmon Young, Outfielder, Minnesota Twins

Going back to his days with the Rays organization, his Major League arrival always seemed to be synonymous with stardom.

However, it really didn't work out that way and many were ready to consider him a huge flop because his numbers were not extraordinary and over the top.

But now that he is working on his discipline, his game as finally emerged.

He's coming closer to reaching his power potential. His 10 first half homers are already three away from a career high.

He's been an outstanding clutch hitter, batting nearly .400 with runners in scoring position. His first half batting average looked good over .300.

What is more impressive about Young is that he is accustomed to being very swing-happy, throwing the bat out all the time and striking out frequently.

Young is the kind of player that was guaranteed to strike out at least 100 times in a season. But, over the course of 81 first half games this year, he struck out only 36 times.

He needs to work on his patience to pick up more walks, but he is clearly on the right path now that he isn't whiffing as often.

Young's overall development has come slowly, but the Twins lineup is finally benefiting greatly from his presence. He is finally a star in this league.

Conclusion: For real