Preseason College Football Picks: Who's Got the Cupcakes?

In 2004, the Auburn Tigers had a perfect 12-0 record, yet they didn't get the bid for the National Championship game.

Instead, 12-0 Oklahoma got the bid to play against 12-0 USC. The Sooners subsequently got trounced , thereby, in some peoples' minds, lending credence to the argument that Auburn deserved the bid .

On the other hand, with an out-of-conference slate that included Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, and that scourge of the Southern Conference, The Citadel, one had to wonder if strength of schedule held Auburn back.

After all, Oklahoma played, and beat, Oregon in the OOC part of their schedule. Meanwhile, USC played, and beat, Virginia Tech, BYU, and Notre Dame. Moreover, all three of those games were on the road.

When the 2009 season began, Penn State was breaking in a number of new offensive linemen. They rolled over the early part of their schedule, easily beating Akron, Syracuse, and Temple.

A number of critics claimed these relative cupcakes (though it's worth noting Temple turned out to have a pretty good team) ill-prepared the Lions to play a good defense.

As it turned out, when a good defense—namely Iowa—came to town, they made PSU's new line look like Swiss cheese .

On the other hand, there are a number of coaches that have unabashedly built up and maintained their very successful programs by padding their win totals with cupcakes.

Then there is the randomness of the Big Ten schedule.

In 2007, Hawkeye fans felt it was going to be their year. After all, the scheduling gods had left both Michigan and Ohio State off Iowa's schedule. The consensus was it would be an easy run to the top.

As it turned out, the 2007 Hawks were the first Kirk Ferentz team not to make a bowl in seven years.

In short, does a tough schedule build a team's character? Does it prepare them for the wear and tear of the season?

Does it give them just enough wins to ensure they make a bowl?

I don't have the answers.

However, the following list are the Big Ten schedules, from weakest-to-strongest, and I can say I don't envy the team at the "top."

Northwestern University Wildcats

09/04- at Vanderbilt
09/11- Illinois State (FCS)
09/18- at Rice
09/25- Central Michigan
10/02- at Minnesota
10/09- Purdue
10/16- Open Date
10/23- Michigan State
10/30- at Indiana
11/06- at Penn State
11/13- Iowa
11/20- Illinois (at Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill),
11/27- at Wisconsin.

The combined 2009 record of Northwestern's first eight opponents is 41-56.

One of those teams—the Illinois State Redbirds—was a 6-5 FCS team.

Amongst the FBS teams, there was exactly one winning record, three teams with bowl berths, and one bowl win.

The one team with a winning record and bowl win—the Central Michigan Chippewas—project to be a considerably less formidable team in 2010.

The only team that looks to be markedly improved is the Michigan State Spartans.

Northwestern, who went 8-5 in 2009, misses Ohio State and Michigan in their Big Ten Schedule. OSU is, as usual, at the top of the conference, while the Wolverines should be much improved from a 5-7 2009.

The Cats' only truly difficult road games are at Penn State and at Wisconsin.

On November 6, when NU comes into Happy Valley, it is realistic that they could have an 8-0 record.

The back end of their schedule is unquestionably formidable, with the four teams having a combined 2009 record of 34-17. However, the Wildcats will have plenty of time to prepare for those challenges.

Nevertheless, I do have one question: Why did Northwestern schedule a road game at Rice?

Indiana University Hoosiers

09/02- Towson (FCS)
09/11- Open Date
09/18- at Western Kentucky
09/25- Akron
10/02- Michigan
10/09- at Ohio State
10/16- Arkansas State
10/23- at Illinois
10/30- Northwestern
11/06- Iowa
11/13- at Wisconsin
11/20- Penn State (at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)
11/27- at Purdue

The Hoosiers' four out-of-conference opponents had a combined record of 8-40 in 2009.

None of them project to be much better this year.

In conference, IU misses Michigan State and Minnesota. MSU projects to be average to better-than-average, while Minnesota probably won't be very good.

The Hoosiers' only difficult conference road game is at Ohio State. However, they lose a home game due to their "neutral" field game against Penn State.

They play their biggest rivalry game against Purdue in West Lafayette.

Again, I am left to wonder why the Hoosiers agreed to travel to Western Kentucky?

I know IU has a long history of football ineptitude, but surely a home-and-home series against Duke or an equally awful program could have been arranged.

Such a series would presumably have been more financially advantageous, as well as more respectable than traveling to Western Kentucky.

Purdue University Boilermakers

09/04- at Notre Dame
09/11- Western Illinois (FCS)
09/18- Ball State
09/25- Toledo
10/02- Open Date
10/09- at Northwestern
10/16- Minnesota
10/23- at Ohio State
10/30- at Illinois
11/06- Wisconsin
11/13- Michigan
11/20- at Michigan State
11/27- Indiana

Opening at Notre Dame might be tricky. While I think Notre Dame under Brian Kelly has a bright future, I don't think it will be this year. However, that could definitely be a tough game.

Moreover, playing in South Bend is never easy.

Purdue's other three out-of-conference games should be fairly easy wins.

FCS Western Illinois was 1-10 last year in the Missouri Valley Conference. Both Ball State and Toledo project to be middling teams out of the Mid American Conference.

In the Big Ten, Purdue misses Iowa and Penn State, who had a combined record of 21-5 last season. Moreover, both project to be at, or near the top of the conference this season.

The Boilers have tough road games at Ohio State and Michigan State. Their other tough in-conference games are at home against Michigan and Wisconsin.

Their biggest rivalry game is at home against Indiana.

Finally, their only away game that requires plane travel is at Michigan State.

Michigan State Spartans

09/04- Western Michigan
09/11- Florida Atlantic (at Ford Field, Detroit, MI)
09/18- Notre Dame
09/25- Northern Colorado (FCS)
10/02- Wisconsin
10/09- at Michigan
10/16- Illinois
10/23- at Northwestern
10/30- at Iowa
11/06- Minnesota
11/13- Open Date
11/20- Purdue
11/27- at Penn State

While Western Michigan went 5-7 last season, they project to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year.

Florida Atlantic also went 5-7 in 2009, though they project to be a middling team in the Sun Belt in 2010.

As previously mentioned, Notre Dame should turn around under Brian Kelly, but it won't be this year. Moreover, MSU has the Irish in East Lansing.

The Big Sky Conference's Northern Colorado Bears went 3-8 last season.

In conference, Michigan State misses Indiana and Ohio State. The latter will be very good. The former—not so much.

Michigan State's in-conference road schedule is daunting with trips to Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State.

Nevertheless, the Spartans' first road game isn't until the the sixth week of the season.

University of Wisconsin Badgers

09/04- at UNLV
09/11- San Jose State
09/18- Arizona State
09/25- Austin Peay (FCS)
10/02- at Michigan State
10/09- Minnesota
10/16- Ohio State
10/23- at Iowa
10/30- Open Date
11/06- at Purdue
11/13- Indiana
11/20- at Michigan
11/27- Northwestern

The Badgers' out-of-conference opponents had a combined 15-32 record last season. None of them had winning seasons, and none of the three FCS teams qualified for a bowl.

Moreover, none of them project to be much better this season. However, it is always a challenge to play two time zones away, which is what the trip to UNLV entails.

In conference, Wisconsin misses Penn State and Illinois. The former projects to have a solid season. The latter does not.

The Badgers' Big Ten road schedule is fairly challenging with difficult trips to Michigan State, Iowa, and Michigan.

Nevertheless, their entire season should boil down to the games against OSU and Iowa, which are played in consecutive weeks.

Those dates will determine if they are a Big Ten contender.

University of Illinois Fighting Illini

09/04- Missouri (at Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO)
09/11- Southern Illinois (FCS)
09/18- Northern Illinois
09/25- Open Date
10/02- Ohio State
10/09- at Penn State
10/16- at Michigan State
10/23- Indiana
10/30- Purdue
11/06- at Michigan
11/13- Minnesota
11/20- Northwestern (at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL)
11/27- Open Date
12/03- at Fresno State

Mizzou went 8-4 last season, and is a legitimate Big 12 North contender in 2010.

The Southern Illinois Salukis went 11-2 and won the Missouri Valley Conference last season. However, they don't project to be quite as good this year.

Meanwhile, the Northern Illinois Huskies, who went 7-6 in 2009, project to be at the top of the MAC this year.

Finally, the WAC's Fresno State went 8-5 last year, and look to be about the same quality team in 2010.

In conference, Illinois misses Iowa and Wisconsin, both of whom won at least 10 games last season. Furthermore, both should be very good this year.

The Illini's conference slate is challenging with road games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan.

However, they get a free pass on their road game with Northwestern, due to the game being played at a neutral site.

The University of Iowa Hawkeyes

09/04- Eastern Illinois (FCS)
09/11- Iowa State
09/18- at Arizona
09/25- Ball State
10/02- Penn State
10/09- Open Date
10/16- at Michigan
10/23- Wisconsin
10/30- Michigan State
11/06- at Indiana
11/13- at Northwestern
11/20- Ohio State
11/27- at Minnesota

The Eastern Illinois Panthers went 8-4 last year, and should be just as good, if not better, in 2010.

Iowa State went 7-6 in 2009, including a bowl win. They don't project to do as well in 2010, but, as is often the case with rivalry games, this has been a weird series for Kirk Ferentz.

He is 5-6 against the Cyclones, and has lost to them in years when the Hawkeyes were clearly the superior team . It helps that this one is at home.

The Arizona Wildcats were 8-6 last season, and appear to be a team on the rise. Although Iowa appears to be the better of the two teams, one must remember that the last time Iowa went into the desert, they came home humiliated .

Iowa's Big Ten schedule doesn't include Illinois or Purdue, both of whom didn't qualify for bowls last year, and don't look much improved this year.

On the other hand, the Hawkeyes' road slate is very favorable, with Ann Arbor as the only difficult road trip.

Penn State University Nittany Lions

09/04- Youngstown State (FCS)
09/11- at Alabama
09/18- Kent State
09/25- Temple
10/02- at Iowa
10/09- Illinois
10/16- Open Date
10/23- at Minnesota
10/30- Michigan
11/06- Northwestern
11/13- at Ohio State
11/20- Indiana (at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)
11/27- Michigan State

The Youngstown State Penguins were 6-5 last season, though they are expected to be better this year.

Kent State and Temple are both in the Mid American Conference. The former went 5-6 last season, while the latter went 9-4. Both project to be at the top of their conference in 2010.

Then there is that little game against Bama. Needless to say, the Crimson Tide are the reigning national champions, and Tuscaloosa will, as usual, be packed when the Nits come to town.

In conference, PSU misses Purdue and Wisconsin. Purdue was 5-7 last season. Wisconsin was 10-3. In 2010, one can probably expect more of the same from both.

Penn State has tough road games at Iowa and Ohio State. They also gain—if not a home game, at least a "neutral" field game against Indiana.

University of Michigan Wolverines

09/04- Connecticut
09/11- at Notre Dame
09/18- Massachusetts (FCS)
09/25- Bowling Green
10/02- at Indiana
10/09- Michigan State
10/16- Iowa
10/23- Open Date
10/30- at Penn State
11/06- Illinois
11/13- at Purdue
11/20- Wisconsin
11/27- at Ohio State

The UConn Huskies project to be at, or near the top of the Big East this year. That will be a good opening test for a young Michigan team looking to prove a thing or two.

Notre Dame might not be back yet, but traveling to South Bend is always a challenge.

Last season, the UMass Minutemen went 5-6, though they were breaking in a new coach. This year, they should be more competitive.

The Bowling Green Falcons went 7-6 last season, but they will only be returning eight starters, and project to be at the bottom of the MAC.

In conference, Michigan misses Minnesota and Northwestern. Both made bowls last year. NU projects to go bowling again this year. Minnesota does not.

The Wolverines do get Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa at home.

However, they have to travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State, and they end the year playing the Buckeyes in Columbus.

The Ohio State Buckeyes

09/04- Marshall
09/11- Miami (FL)
09/18- Ohio
09/25- Eastern Michigan
10/02- at Illinois
10/09- Indiana
10/16- at Wisconsin
10/23- Purdue
10/30- at Minnesota
11/06- Open Date
11/13- Penn State
11/20- at Iowa
11/27- Michigan

The Marshall Thundering Herd went 7-6 last season and project to be a contender in Conference USA this season.

The Ohio Bobcats went 9-5 in the MAC last season. This year, they are expected to slip a little bit, but still be competitive.

On the other hand, the Eastern Michigan Eagles went 0-12 in the MAC last season. They should improve, but that's not saying much.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes went 9-4 last year, and will begin the year ranked in the top 20. On September 11, expect ESPN Gameday to set up shop at this game or the PSU/Bama game.

Michigan State and Northwestern are both absent from Ohio State's conference schedule. MSU was a middling bowl teams last year, while NU was slightly better than that. This year, Northwestern should be about the same, and MSU should improve.

The Buckeyes most difficult road games are at Iowa and at Wisconsin.

They have a particularly daunting stretch at the end of the season, playing Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan in succession.

Nonetheless, they do finish with the Wolverines in Columbus.

University of Minnesota Golden Gophers

09/04- at Middle Tennessee
09/11- South Dakota (FCS)
09/18- University of Southern California (USC)
09/25- Northern Illinois
10/02- Northwestern
10/09- at Wisconsin
10/16- at Purdue
10/23- Penn State
10/30- Ohio State
11/06- at Michigan State
11/13- at Illinois
11/20- Open Date
11/27- Iowa

Minnesota coach Tim Brewster picked quite a year to be on the hot seat.

He begins the year against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, who went 10-3 last season. This season, they project to be very good once again. Worse, it's on the road.

The Great West Conference's South Dakota Coyotes went 5-5 last season. The same is expected from them this season.

In 2010, USC went 9-4, which was a down year for them. Despite facing a substantial punishment ,and being coached by an unprincipled weasel , USC looks to be the best team in the Pac-10 this year. Well, at least it's at home.

The out-of-conference slate finishes with the Northern Illinois Huskies, who, as I previously mentioned, will be in serious contention for the MAC crown.

In conference, they miss Michigan and Indiana.

Indiana went 4-8 last year, and project to have the only defense in the conference worse than the Golden Gophers.

On the other hand, while Michigan went 5-7 in 2009, I think they will be a considerably better team in 2010.

The Gophers' toughest games on their Big Ten road schedule include games at Wisconsin and Michigan State.

They even have something of a lousy bye week—the second to last week of the season.

About the only remotely good news is Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa all have to visit TCF Bank Stadium.

Speaking of which, I am once again left to ask why the Gophers are traveling to Middle Tennessee?

Why would they spend so much time, money, and energy on their new stadium only to have an away game in the Sun Belt Conference?

Either way, good luck, Coach Brewster. You're going to need it.