For information on how these ranks were initially derived, check out posts here.
So the power ranks are in, and I added a new feature—the overall rank.
It's a combination of Sharpe and Alpha total convictions (Beta is a component of Alpha, and Sharpe has its own risk adjustment, so adding Beta into the mix would be redundant). I have also further refined the Sharpe rank to account only for points scored ABOVE the spread.
By doing this, I'm actually ranking a team's consistent ability to bust a spread, and hopefully making it far more useful for parlays in the future. The alpha and beta are very much the same, but I've slightly tweaked how they are scaled for ranking purposes—thus there may be a minor rank change from last week's post. This has had little effect on the rankings, but has improved the double bet performance.
Here are the financials—if you want to see any specific game breakdowns this week, let me know and I can post it:
A lot of the same from last week—but I did note a trend that most of the press has given a lot of attention to. Tennessee's fall from grace has been nothing if not meteoric, and it has largely been attributed to the absence of Albert Haynesworth.
But is it really just one man that makes the difference?
If I look back in the rankings, we see the following:
The most obvious drop is in the Sharpe—and boy does it drop. Nearly 20 spots in three weeks!
But the alpha and beta are exactly the same since week eight. So what does that tell us?
Well, since Sharpe measures point output over the spread adjusted for risk, it's clear they can't score, not that they can't play defense. The loss of Haynesworth has been a problem, but what it has highlighted is the poor play of Vince Young and the Titan offense more than anything else.
Teams are stacking eight in the box and making Young beat them with his arm, something he has yet to prove he can really do, especially with this young receiving core. The real Titans show up in the alpha and beta ranks, which take into account statistics that correct for league averages as well as point output. They have consistently ranked in the bottom half of the league.
So, will the real Titans please stand up? The Box will be hard pressed to take them as favorites for the rest of the year, with or without Haynesworth.
Here are the overall financial rankings, the new segment. This should closely compare with most of the power rankings out there, with a few exceptions.
The arrows indicate a change from last week's overall rank. Big movers are: Tennessee, San Francisco, Chicago, Carolina, and Minnesota.
Upward motion from Chicago, SF, and Minnesota reflect the great play and wins in Week 12, while the drop in Tennessee (see above) and Carolina reflect losses. The triumphant return of Steve Smith couldn't even outshadow the QB troubles for the Panthers.
Biggest surprise: Jacksonville at 19 despite it's record. Jacksonville has a long history of playing up or down to competition. Their consistency—especially against their statistical expectations—is terrible. It may be brought down mostly by the residual effects of the 41-24 drubbing New Orleans gave them a few weeks ago, but they currently sit at number 19. As I get deeper into the stats, maybe I'll get a specific explanation for that posted here this week.
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