As the Clock Runs Down on Dirk Nowitzki's Career...Mav Possibilities

In the aftermath of the Miami deals, a number of NBA teams who put their eggs in the "landing a superstar" basket find themselves hastily redrawing their plans.

That group, sadly, includes my beloved Dallas Mavericks.

And the Mavs had problems before that.

Dirk Nowitzki has probably four years or less of top play left. Jason Kidd's days as a top starter ended two years ago.

That's trouble when that is your list of star players who can carry a team to a title game.

Now GM Donnie Nelson has built a deep, talented team of good starter-caliber veterans which had the Mavs looking like a title contender going into the playoffs.

But the players were betrayed.

The last time we saw the Mavs, they were again suffering through an epic playoff schooling of their head coach, every bit as bad as the "shame your dead ancestors" whipping Don Nelson put on Avery Johnson a few years back.

Just like Avery Johnson inexplicably benched key performers of the league's best regular season team that year, Carlisle glued three of the five best players on the roster to the bench for most of the series.

Goodbye Brendan Haywood, Roddy Beaubois, and Caron Butler. Hello Eric Dampier, JJ. Barea, and Jason Terry.

Goodbye defense. Goodbye toughness. Goodbye title hopes.

Really while Carlisle is a pretty decent coach, he earned being fired in that series, but cuddly Cubes kept him around, maintaining Mark Cuban's consistent pattern of rewarding softness that has existed since he bought the team.

As a Mavs fan, what can one do but scream at the TV and write Bleacher Reports?

Carlisle is clearly the weakest link on a team with lots of weak links.

In order for this team to win a title, it not only needs to add talent that meets needs at key spots, it also needs to reign in Carlisle's horrible playoff meltdowns and his scrub player .

Just like you childproof your house when you have an a baby as they don't know a pocket knife from a pacifier, the Mavs need to "Carlisle-proof" their roster.

Berea, Dampier, and Terry, (and really I'd argue any backup who can't play at least some average D) needs to go. Here's what I'd angle on bringing back for those schlubs.

I have made an effort to be very realistic about what we might add at little to no cost. Most of these additions (with one exception) are very acquirable if the Mavs front office deems them worthy of pursuing.

Add Shaq, not Jermaine Freaking O'Neal.

Why? Because the goal is to win titles. Shaq has done it and can be a smoldering team leader when he chooses.

That's what he did in Miami. His leadership had a lot more to do with their success than his play.

He oozes confidence. The Mavs have little of that. I love the Mavs, but even I can acknowledge that aside from Dirk and Butler, the team has no spine.

Shaq just in terms of his presence in the locker room can give these guys the confidence to play to their talent. That has been the issue in Dallas since Dirk arrived.

But the rumor is Dallas is looking at Mr. Softy rather than Mr. Pudgy.

Jermaine O'Neal is a freaking marshmallow. He went to Miami and did nothing. He disappeared. Yes, at his age, Shaq is just as toasted as Jermaine O'Neal, but at least he isn't a wuss.

If the Mavs sign Jermaine *Freaking* O'Neal, they can write off any shot at competing for a title while he is on the roster.

Adding Jermaine O'Neal amounts to enabling the Mavs' bad player addict Carlisle to bench Haywood for a much softer player.

Shaq may be fat (there are legitimate concerns that he may not be able to get back into top shape) but he has a spine, heart, and a lot of pride.

Shaq has a lot to prove. No one in the NBA wants to take a chance on him. You know that burns him inside.

He wants to play and retire in Dallas as a Mav. He has it as his top option. No one of note ever REALLY wants to join the Mavs.

No one who isn't soft ever wants to join the Mavs. On that stance alone it makes sense. It is an important breakthough.

And, of course, he would love to stop Kobe from winning any more titles. I'm all for that.

Shaq is still an exceptional low post scorer with great passing ability. He would make the Mavs' offense much more efficient.

Defensively he isn't what he was, but he is still a ton better than Jermaine Freaking O'Neal.

Shaq has a high basketball IQ and understands how to provide help defense as a center and has the strength and size to match up with any center in the league in the post.

He can still be a positive defensively against a lot of teams even if he is slow up and down the court.

Cleveland is gutted. They have no scoring. You might be able to swing a Jet Terry for Shaq in a sign-and-trade. Or there are some related possibilities I'll discuss in a moment.

Use the DUST chip for Al Jefferson in some way shape or form...

Why? It's a fair question. Al Jefferson won't win you a title. Really the odds are he wouldn't even be one of many difference makers helping a team win a title. In fact with Carlisle here, adding Jefferson could hurt you.

I think ultimately you have to look at it like if you don't use the DUST chip (Eric Dampier's instantly terminable contract), you have just wasted your best asset. Can you really afford that?

The argument to just cutting Dampier and burning the DUST chip is that it saves Cuban a ton of money once you figure in luxury tax payments.

I would argue being a real title contender would make Cuban much or all of that money back and after Dirk sacrificed for Cuban, Cuban owes Dirk a similar commitment.

Minnesota reportedly wants the DUST chip a whole lot and is pushing for this deal.

If Dallas acquired Jefferson, no NBA title-caliber coach would start him ahead of Dirk or Haywood, because he isn't a difference maker with a game on the line against any opponent, like Dirk is at the four, and isn't a defensive force (or competent at center defensively) like Haywood.

Now that said, Little Nel and cuddly Cubes would probably have to instruct Carlisle not to bench Haywood or even Dirk for this dude.

I am also concerned Carlisle would push Dirk to the three spot to open time for Jefferson. That's a bad Carlisle-type decision.

Dirk gets a bad rap as a defender at the four spot, mostly because he is white, but if you watch him, he does move his feet, consistently bodies his man, and contests shots.

That is average NBA defense at the four spot. Jefferson is not a better than average defender at the four. There is little to no gain there.

If you move Dirk to the three, Dirk would be at a spot where he can't guard anyone and you have benched Marion, one of your better defenders.

Additionally, Dirk struggles a bit offensively against smaller, quicker defenders.

So yes, there is an opportunity for a Carlisle-fueled meltdown.

Jefferson is an All-Star like Michael Finley was an All-Star. He'll keep you in games every night, but he won't win many games on this side of .500 for you.

So why should we get him? Because we are not likely to get more for Dampier's voidable contract than a mid-20s All-Star post player who can give you a 20-10 fairly consistently.

I say use it to land this dude, let him play 18-25 minutes a game until the trade deadline (keeping Dirk's minutes low) and then deal his butt to a crap team (Cleveland) that needs something to sell their fans for something of use.

By playing him that little we can keep him fresh, looking good, and hopefully healthy.

Another option that might actually be far superior in "Carlisle proofing" is to lasso in a couple teams (one being Cleveland) in a four-team deal with Minnesota today.

Cleveland likely wants Jefferson, but we apparently have the better trade chip in Minnesota's eyes with Dampier's voidable contract.

That would likely be a lot more ideal for the Mavs but is also a lot more complex so I won't cover it today.)

...Especially if we can get Corey Brewer in the deal.

Why? As we just talked about, Minnesota wants the DUST chip a whole lot. How much is an interesting question to me.

I would try to land Corey Brewer as part of the Jefferson deal for an add-on of Matt Caroll (the bum "three point ace" we have sitting on the bench who can't play any D) and a future No. 1 (and possibly a sweetener of one of Carlisle's select, J.J. Barea).

I think Dallas might very well have to offer a lot more, but I'd start there.

Brewer was a pick of the old Minnesota leadership if I recall. While he played well last year, he may not be truly part of their long-term plans. It might be an avenue worth pursuing.

Brewer is far from a finished product, but he is the kind of player who can help a team win a title. I think he could be a shooting guard version of Robert Horry.

Like Horry, Brewer is not likely to ever be a No. 1, 2, or even a 3 scoring threat, but he has shown that he has ice water in his veins when it comes to hitting big playoff game shots.

Brewer is 6'9" with long arms and good quickness. He plays very strong perimeter defense on SFs, SGs, and PGs and as he proved over and over in college, he has the knack to hit the big-time playoff three-pointer with consistency.

Dallas has needed that kind of player for years.

Too many times, Dallas has watched hopelessly as the likes of Kobe, Dwyane Wade, or Manu Ginobili torched our perimeter defense with ease, sending the Mavs home. We need someone who can make them work.

Too many times, Dirk gives up the ball to a teammate who cannot hit an open three in the playoffs. Dirk has never had the luxury Tim Duncan and Kobe have of number of clutch shooters off the bench.

It might be expensive to make this happen (perhaps up to working in a very usable and valuable Shawn Marion), but I think landing a Corey Brewer would be a good goal.

See about adding Ronny Turiaf

Why? With Shaq's advancing age and with our backup 4 being Marion, we could use a cheap physical 5/4 like Turiaf. Turiaf is a little Bull we could have on a budget.

He is cheap and solid.

Maybe Barea and Najera for Turiaf? We'd have to wait a bit, but it would be a nice add.

J.J. Barea would be a much better fit in a pedal to the metal, no D system like New York runs. Giving him up for a physical interior defender who can rebound and block shots as well as catch the ball and dunk it, seems very much worth doing.

Turiaf gets how to play center defensively, is a good shot blocker, and is a competent banger at the four spot as well.

Barea may be a poor man's Steve Nash, but he is a defensive liability that Carlisle likes to play in big games, so Barea has to go.

Sign Raja Bell

Why? I can't say that Raja Bell is a proven big-game shooter, but he has at least been to the finals and been a key performer on that team.

He may have lost a step, but he still plays OK defense and shoots pretty well.
If you can add that kind of guy for nothing, you should.

Be prepared to pull the plug on Carlisle

If Carlisle gets down 2-1 to a lower seed in the playoffs again this year, he needs to be immediately fired and replaced with Donnie Nelson.

That may seem harsh, but the facts seem pretty obvious. Just like Avery Johnson, Carlisle vapor locks in the playoffs. He sticks with things that don't work.

If the Mavs go down 2-1 to a lesser team based on Carlisle's personnel moves, the Mavs will not come back, because that is who Carlisle is, so why not give someone else a shot.

The Mavs have a great coach in the front office in Donnie Nelson. He once led Lithuania (I think) almost knocking off one of the early "Dream Teams" in the Olympics.

He had a few runs where he coached the Mavs for his dad and there were noticeable improvements in a lot of areas. His dad is a freaking Hall of Fame coach, and this guy may be better.

The way I see it, if Carlisle starts to vapor lock, you can his butt and put Little Nel in charge of the team for the rest of the season, however long that goes.

Dirk is a Donnie Nelson guy. Little Nel brought in all of these guys and knows how they should work together.

Really, there is no one better suited for that interim role.

After the season, Cuban can let him go back to being GM if the team doesn't win the title.

That gives the Mavs a lot of flexibility and maximizes the roster.

Consider what the Mavs could roll out up to the trade deadline (minutes in parentheses):

5- Haywood (30), Shaq (15), Turiaf (3)
4- Dirk (30), Jefferson (18), Turiaf
3- Marion (26), Butler (22)
2- Beaubois (20), Butler (8), Brewer (14), Bell (6)
1- Kidd (25), Beaubois (6), Rookie Dominique Jones (18)

I have proposed cutting the starter minutes far more than most would, but only because this is an old team.

Mav fans will note I have Roddy B playing primarily at SG and the rookie at the point. Roddy is a PG-caliber ball handler, but I didn't see much of any instincts as a distributor; he's a gunner. Jones likewise may be exactly opposite of what fans expect.

Check out this scouting report from draft express, in my opinion the premiere scouting site for fans.

"...What makes Jones intriguing in today’s NBA is that he can spend time at either backcourt position. He’s clearly a good enough ball handler to bring the ball up the court and get a team into its offense, and he shows pretty good court vision on top of that, with his ability to play the pick-and-roll and find teammates off the dribble in drive-and-dish situations.

In the film we studied, it was a bit surprising to see the amount of possessions in which Jones was obviously looking to make the extra pass, but ended up forcing a difficult shot as the clock ran down due to the inability of his teammates to create open looks.

"He's clearly not a selfish player. While no one will confuse him with a pure point guard, he’s enough of a lead guard to see minutes as his team’s primary ball handler coming off the bench..."

If you read the whole report, the kid's game sounds a lot like Jerry Stackhouse's in his best years in Detroit.

In those days, Stackhouse really passed very well. Now will his game translate at the pro level? Who can say?

I say let's give him the first half of the season to show what he can do and look into a trade if needed at the deadline. The roster is loaded enough to endure his mistakes as he learns on the job.

You read that report and you think about Roddy B's game and one can imagine the two being quite a complementary starting backcourt down the road, with Roddy B in the traditional SG role and Jones as the setup man.

I also have Brewer, a natural swing player, getting his minutes exclusively at the SG spot for now as Marion and Butler are more physical.

The Mavs would be able to judge what they have and what they need and trade Jefferson at the trade deadline for a package they can use.

Most importantly it gives Dirk a team that can close playoff games.

The Mavs would be able to roll out a lineup for the last 5 minutes of a playoff game that was not only capable of hitting pressure shots, but was also capable of stopping their opponents.

Consider the last 5 minutes options:
5- Haywood (defense and dunks) or Shaq (leadership, dunks, setup man for Dallas's shooters, and key plays)
4- Dirk (go to guy and set up man)
3- Butler (physical defense, tough minded slasher) or Brewer (long defender, clutch 3 point shooter)
2- Brewer, Bell (good defender, solid shooter), or Beaubois (quick and fast defender of PGs, allowing Kidd to play the Shooting Guard, very good shooter.)
1- Kidd (veteran presence, great vision) or Beaubois

That is a pretty salty mix for winning playoff games at the end.

Getting back to the championship game

For an old team like the Mavs, whose members have never won anything, a management group should work to give them every edge possible.

Make every minor move possible to improve the team defense.

Lengthen the bench to reduce minutes for key players.

Add players who have won titles (or at least reached championship games).

Add players who have proven they can hit playoff game-winning three pointers.

With no intended insult mean to the great Don Nelson (who turned this team around before Cuban bought the franchise), this team has been a soft regular season team since Nellie took over.

Nellie's big three couldn't get it done. Dirk and Nash regularly deferred to Finley, but he was a minor league closer at the time.

Finley couldn't consistently drain the playoff three until his San Antonio days when he was at best the fourth option.

Nash didn't step up and take big shots until his pride was injured and he was allowed to walk. Dirk didn't step up until Nash was gone.

Offensively, Dirk has mostly been a one-man show for the last few years when it came time to win games. (I say "mostly" because a few years ago Jason Terry was a clutch positive. That is no longer the case.)

Defensively, they have been somewhat soft at center (despite Dampier's good block numbers and willingness to bang) and soft, slow, short, and weak at the perimeter.

Last year Dallas finally made some steps forward in regards to defense with the Wizard trade.

More needs to be done.

Dirk committed to the Mavs, now the Mavs need to commit to Dirk.