Behind The USC Trojan Scoring Decline: Part II

• First down efficiency (% of 1st down plays that gain +4 yards)
• Red zone efficiency (% of scores when inside the 20 yard line)
• Explosive plays (+12 yard run plays & +16 yard pass plays)
• Turnover margin (turnovers gained - turnovers lost)

Note: Unfortunately I have not been able to track down this report or verify its exact methodology. It is mentioned in passing in the book Developing An Offensive Game Plan.

So big plays apparently are not only exciting for fans to watch but necessary for winning as well, in some statistical sense. Big plays are tough to study, however, since they are not tracked or published online by any service I could locate. Just looking at averages for instance does not give you an indication of  the number of big plays contained within that number. Here for example is the recent yards per play performance by USC.



In order to see the big play differential, the data is easier to view when it is converted into a histogram showing the frequency of how many times a certain amount of yardage has been gained.

Here, for example, is the amazing performance of the 2005 USC Trojan offense in total when viewed in this fashion instead of using averages.

As you can see, USC had an amazing 138 plays that season that gained +16 yards either on the ground or through the air. Over 100 other plays gained +10 yards or more as well. The spike centered around the zero value is mostly due to incomplete passes as well as a few zero rushing yardage plays.

For comparison, let's look at a more normal year such as the recently completed 2007 season using the same method. Here you can see clearly that the spike for "big plays" of +16 yards is down from 138 to 102 for a decline of 36 plays or roughly three big plays per game over the course of a season as Coach Carroll points out. In addition, there were a few more zero yard and negative yardage plays as well.

What does the undefeated 2004 national championship year for USC look line in terms of total offense?

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