NBA Free Agent Rumors 2010: Playing Fact or Fiction

One of my favorite old "Sportscenter" segments was their "Fact or Fiction" segment where an NBA/NFL/MLB/etc. analyst would give you his opinion on a subjective matter as if it were truly fact or fiction.

I enjoyed this segment because most of the time analysts gave wholly appropriate and logical reasoning behind their opinions. However, this segment also ran during the Sean Salisbury era so hearing his innate opinions also provided for buckets full of unintentional comedy.

Outside of "Sportscenter's Top 10" segment, "Fact or Fiction" quickly became must-watch television for me.

Sadly, the "Fact or Fiction" segment went the way of the dodo bird in favor of corporate-sponsored segments like "Coors Light: Cold Hard Facts" and "Gatorade Cooler Talk".

Well, today my favorite segment's resurrection. Only, um, in article form.

And with the NBA offseason in full swing and the rumor mill churning out hot rumors by the second, I thought it was only appropriate to address everything important about the 2010 NBA free agency period in the first "Fact or Fiction" article.

With that said, here are some facts and some fictional tales being told around NBA circles this offseason....

Fact or Fiction: Dwyane Wade is Leaning Toward Signing With the Bulls

Last night reports surfaced that Heat guard Dwyane Wade has suddenly gone from active recruiter for Miami to "leaning" toward signing in Chicago.

When you sit and think about it, the reasoning makes complete sense. Wade is from Chicago. His kids will be living in Illinois with Wade's ex-wife. Miami has just two players under contract while Chicago has a Derek Rose-Joakim Noah budding nucleus already in the works. Finally, and most importantly, like Miami, Chicago has enough cap space to sign LeBron James or Chris Bosh as well as Wade.

All of that aside, if you think Wade's reneging on his every word is anything other than a media ploy, you're sorely mistaken.

Absolutely nothing Jerry Reinsdorf said has swayed Wade in any way, shape, or form. He has said from the beginning that Miami is where his heart is and two meetings in a 24 hour span are not going to change that.

While the probability of a Wade-Bosh combo winning a championship with Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, and a bunch of scrubs is seemingly a tall task, is that not what the 2006 Miami Heat did?

In the end, look for Pat Riley to step back on the bench and Wade to resign with Miami.

Verdict: Fiction.

Fact or Fiction: Atlanta's Offer to Joe Johnson is One of the Worst Ever

Okay, I'm sure every sane person on the planet agrees that Johnson's $119 million contract (If he takes it) will instantly become one of the worst in the NBA.

While he is a very good player, Johnson has shown absolutely nothing to merit a contract on the level or above the level of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, etc.

To think Joe Johnson is a max player exposes the Hawks as a dysfunctional organization starting with upper management all the way down to the players.

The only question truly remaining, assuming Johnson resigns in Atlanta, is how bad of a contract is it? Top five worst ever? Top ten?

Well, let's try to figure it out.

In my mind, here are the current top 10 worst contracts in NBA history:

1. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards (six-years, $111 million)
2. Stephon Marbury, Suns (four-years, $76 million)
3. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers (seven-years, $126.6 million)
4. Allan Houston, Knicks (six-years, $100 million)
5. Juwan Howard, Bullets (seven-years, $105 million)
6. Vin Baker, Sonics (seven-years, $86 million)
7. Keith Van Horn, Nets (six-years, $73 million)
8. Steve Francis, Rockets (six-years, $85 million)
9. Bryant Reeves, Grizzlies (six-years, $64 million)
10. Kenyon Martin, Nuggets (seven-years, $92 million)

Whether you agree or disagree with that list, is it not wholly possible that Johnson could be in the Steve Francis-Reeves-Martin stratosphere by the end of this contract?

I think it is.

Verdict: Fact. Duh.

Fact or Fiction: David Kahn is Purposely Destroying the T-Wolves

It sure seems that way, doesn't it?

A year after drafting three point guards in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft, trading the best one away, and signing a career backup point guard (Ramon Sessions) to a $16 million deal, Kahn was at it again this year—acquiring four small forwards during the 2010 NBA Draft via trade/selection, attempting to sign another (Rudy Gay), and signing Darko Milicic to a $20 million contract.

On top of that, Kahn has feverishly been on the phone attempting to trade Al Jefferson (the team's best player) while still employing a coach (Kurt Rambis) whose triangle offense is a horrible fit for Minnesota's mishmash personnel.

Combine all of those factors, and it's not an impossible theory that David Stern planted Kahn in Minnesota to systematically destroy the franchise. It's not as if the Timberwolves are a franchise looked at as integral to the success of the NBA.

However, much like all "Stern fixes the league" theories, I don't believe it.

Verdict: Fiction. Kahn is just incredibly incompetent.

Fact or Fiction: Amar'e Stoudemire Will Recruit Other Stars to New York

According to multiple reports, forward Amar'e Stoudemire is on the precipice of accepting the Knicks' five-year, $100 million maximum contract offer.

And, according to Amar'e, he's not going to be alone: "Both guys (Tony Parker and Carmelo Anthony) are ready to join me if I come here. So we will see if we can work it out."

The question indeed remains—can they work it out?

If not, the Knicks are going to come out of free agency looking like over-hyped losers of free agency as many pundits predicted. However, an Amare-Melo-Parker trio instantly creates a 50-win team in the Eastern Conference.

Call me crazy, but I actually think there is substance to what Amar'e is saying. While I made it inherently clear that Carmelo isn't going anywhere, I also don't think Amar'e would sign in New York without the guaranteed presence of another star.

Whether it is someone as talented as Carmelo or as troubled as Gilbert Arenas, it seems the Knicks are actually nearing their stated goal of having a roster of multiple stars.

Whether it translates to championships is another question.

Verdict: Fact.

Fact or Fiction: The Nets Will Sign a Superstar This Offseason

While most were ready to stand atop a mountain and call the Knicks the biggest losers of the 2010 NBA free agency bonanza, it seemingly appears as if its soon-to-be cross-town rivals are the real losers.

Despite all major free agents taking meetings with Nets brass, there have been absolutely no rumblings about a major signing in Jersey.

That would be just another year for Nets fans if it weren't for exciting new ownership in Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov promising a dynasty.

Well, the last time I checked, dynasties aren't created by signing the likes of David Lee or Mike Miller.

Verdict: Fiction.

Fact or Fiction: The Nuggets Are Actually Considering Trading Carmelo

Denver Nuggets brass has made an incredibly brash and curiously public plea to their superstar forward: "Take our three-year, $65 million extension offer, or we're trading you."

With that ultimatum, the darling of the 2011 NBA free agent class has suddenly been thrust into the forefront of the 2010 free agency bonanza.

Rumors have Carmelo and Tony Parker headed to New York to create a three-headed monster that would rival any top three in the NBA.

However, one has to question whether Denver is actually considering trading Melo, or just using a public forum to pressure him into signing their extension offer.

Nuggets management's public stance is they don't want to risk losing their superstar player in the 2011 offseason for absolutely nothing. However, any logical person can surmise that Denver could get just as much (if not more) for Carmelo via a sign-and-trade next year as they can now.

Based on that reasoning, Knicks fans shouldn't invest in any No. 15 jerseys anytime soon.

Verdict: Fiction.

Fact or Fiction: LeBron James Will Leave the Cleveland Cavaliers

Throughout the entire lead-up to the NBA free agency bonanza of 2010, I had an unwavering belief that LeBron James would resign with the Cavs—leaving franchise which thought it had a chance looking unbelievably foolish.

Even my unwavering (or stubborn depending on who you ask) opinion began changing in the aftermath of Chicago's Kirk Hinrich trade. Not only does Chicago provide James with a dynasty-worthy supporting cast, but the Bulls also have enough cap space to sign another superstar to pair with LeBron.

It seemed like LeBron had just two logical choices: Cleveland to spend his career as a hometown hero, or Chicago to spend his career racking up titles.

However, in the aftermath of LeBron's meetings with individual teams, it seems the situation is more muddled than ever. While most other free agents have had leaks within their inner circles, James' gang has stayed surprisingly mum when questioned about LeBron's inner thoughts.

That leads me to one possible conclusion: Nothing any of the teams said swayed LeBron enough to bolt his hometown.

Look for LeBron to announce he's staying between Tuesday and Thursday.

Verdict: Fiction.

Fact or Fiction: Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh Will Play Together Next Year

In an effort to stay consistent, because I debunked the rumor that Wade is headed to Chicago earlier in this article, the only possibility we will discuss is Bosh following Wade to Miami.

And it seems like an unbelievably logical occurrence—especially if LeBron James stays in Cleveland.

Because Toronto is seemingly unwilling to work a sign-and-trade deal with Bosh, a move to Miami would help recoup some of the money Bosh is losing (Florida has no income tax), allow CB4 to move into his rightful place as second banana on a contender, and create the opportunity for Bosh to play for one of the greatest coaches in NBA history.

Despite that, if LeBron decides he's Chicago-bound, Bosh should renege on any agreement he has with D-Wade and gleefully sign with the Bulls.

Sadly for Bulls fans, I just don't see it happening—look for Bosh and Wade to "Take Miami" this offseason.

Verdict: Fact.

Bonus: Final Free Agent Signing Predictions

Since I avoided writing a "Here is Where the Free Agents Will Sign This Offseason" article, I figured why not quickly give it to you as a bonus track?

Anyway, here it goes (excluding players already signed obviously):

LeBron James: Cleveland Cavaliers
Dwyane Wade: Miami Heat
Chris Bosh: Miami Heat
Amar'e Stoudemire: New York Knicks
David Lee: New Jersey Nets
Ray Allen: Boston Celtics
Mike Miller: Los Angeles Clippers
Carlos Boozer: Utah Jazz
J.J. Redick: Los Angeles Clippers
Ray Felton: Indiana Pacers
Shannon Brown: Los Angeles Lakers
Tyrus Thomas: Charlotte Bobcats