UFC 116: Preview and Predictions

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UFC 116: Preview and Predictions

It has been way to long since I’ve done one of these but since I’m on summer break I decided to write one of these.  Like my other articles, I’m giving some insight into the fight and my predictions.  Now on to the show

Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola— Jon Madsen the former season 10 TUF alumni will have his third fight in the UFC as he faces newcomer Karlos Vemola.  Madsen was a wrestling National Champion from South Dakota State who currently trains with The HIT Squad under Matt Hughes.  He is 5-0 and as you can guess is a wrestler with decent gnp.  Vemola is 7-0 and fights out of London Shootfigthers with UFC fighter John Hathaway.  Vemola has never been out of the first round and for that matter never been past the halfway point of the 1st.  Most of his wins have come by RNC.  From what I’ve seen of him he’s punches are wild and loopy but very hard, which leads me to believe that Madsen should be able to avoid the wild punches and take Vemola down and gnp him to a victory.  However, if Madsen gets lazy and takes one of those heavy punches its lights out.  Still I think Madsen’s wrestling will determine the outcome.  Madsen Via Decision.

Forrest Petz vs. Daniel Roberts—The Meat Cleaver is back in the UFC for the first time since ’07 and he will take on Daniel Roberts.  Petz has been around for a long time and has stepped in with some notable fighters including Marcus Davis, Josh Neer, and Dan Hardy.  Petz has decent punching power and a ton of experience over Roberts.  Roberts’s last fight was against John Howard and was KO something bad, but is a legit BJJ practitioner.  I like Petz in this one via decision, but I won’t be too surprised if Roberts can get a sub.  Forrest “The Meat Clever” Petz via Decision.

Dave Branch vs. Gerald Harris—Most of us know who Gerald Harris is and know that he is a very good wrestler with good gnp, but I’d venture to say that most don’t know what Dave Branch brings to the table.  Branch is a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie.  He has fought in Bellator Fighting Championship and won both contest via RNC with ease.  Yes Harris is a great young fighter who is a wrestler but I really don’t think he wants to take this fight to the ground, at least not at first.  Harris does have very solid hands and I think he will look to punish Branch standing in the first two rounds before taking it to the ground.  This fight is a close one to call, but I think Harris will keep it standing which will give him the fight.  Harris via 2nd rd TKO.

Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic—It sucks that this fight isn’t on the prelims, but I’m glad to see both fighters back In the Octagon.  Grove has had a rocky UFC career and is probably on his last leg with the UFC higher ups.  Since winning his first three fights in the UFC Grove is 3-4 in his last seven and one more loss will not go well.  He is still a dangerous fighter for anyone in the 185 division but has had issues with power strikers and Reljic has some serious power.  Reljic made his debut at 205 and after an injury that sidelined him for nearly 2 years he returned to the UFC only to loss to CB Dollaway.  Both men need a win to be relevant in the UFC.  The problem I see is that the things that make Grove dangerous are things that Reljic can do as well or better than Grove.  I like both fighters but if I were betting I’d go with Reljic.  Goran Reljic via TKO in the Second.

Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero—the UFC newcomer Romero brings his 10-1 record in to the cage against Seth Petruzelli AKA the Elite XC killer.  Petruzelli has experience on his side, but is an ok fighter at best.  Romero has good hands and a very nice ground game having four out of his last five wins coming by way of submission.  Petruzelli will have a hard time with Romero standing and on the ground which is why I see Romero winning this fight.  Ricardo Romero via 1st round TKO.

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer—Tuchscherer is a big heavyweight who trains with UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar. Of course he is a wrestler but don’t let that fool you he has very heavy hands and knows how to use them.  Schaub was a finalist in TUF season 10 and has had one other UFC fight under his belt against Chase Gormley and it was an asswhooping that Gormley won’t soon forget.    Both Men are big and powerful, but Schaub will have a massive reach advantage and should look to use it because I’m not to convince that his ground game is up to Tuchscherer level.  If he can do this then he should get a decision win.  Brendan Schaub via Decision.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropoulos—I almost didn’t write anything about this fight because it’s as much as a lock as I can think of.  Kurt Pellegrino is a mid tier fighter with good wrestling and decent hands but Sotiropoulos is just straight up better than him in every aspect of the fight game.  George’s standup is crisper, his grappling is way better and outside of maybe BJ Penn, no ones submission game is stouter.  George just has way more ways to win.  George Sotiropoulos via 1st round armbar.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski—this one like the fight before is a no brainer.  Stephan Bonnar is not even a gatekeeper in the UFC anymore and should have had his walking papers a while ago, but since he was involved in the “greatest UFC fight ever” Dana White feels like he owes Bonnar something.  Whatever the case is Soszynski will again wipe the floor with him.  I love Bonnar’s will to always make it a show but head butt or not he was losing the first time and it will be the same thing all over again.  Krzysztof Soszynski via TKO.

Matt Brown vs. Chris Lytle—I love to see Chris Lytle fight and this will be like every other barn burner he is in.  Two dudes swinging for the fences and someone getting KO’ed like a mother.  Matt Brown will be a very game fighter in the cage and if he was smart he’d stay out of the slugfest and pick Lytle apart with cleaner and crisper punches and kicks.  However Lytle has the ability to take this fight to the ground and win which I think gives him the edge in this fight.  Regardless I’m seeing FOTN written all over this fight.  It’s a tossup for me so without flipping a coin I’ll go Chris Lytle via RNC. 

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben—how I wish we could have had the fight which we were going to have.  That fight had been years in the making but instead we get this one.  Don’t get me wrong I like to watch Leben fight; I just think the Wandy/Sexyama fight would have been better.  For me this fight is won and lost by how Leben handles the take down attempts by Akiyama.  If Akiyama can get it to the ground than I can see him submitting Leben with ease, however if Leben can stay standing then I give a good chance at a TKO.  Personally I think Leben was not smart for taking this fight.  He has had no time to recover from the last fight against Simpson where he took some early punishment.  If I had to bet, I’d go with Akiyama, but if this fight was set up with Leben to have time to train right and get healed I’d go the other way, but for now it’s Sexyama.  Yoshihiro Akiyama via RNC in the 1st.

Champ Brock Lesnar vs. Interim Champ Shane Carwin (heavyweight title-unification bout)—I’m so glad Lesnar is finally back because I’m super excited about the fight.  There will be over 500 lbs of manliness in the cage when these two men fight and I can’t wait.  Both men are big, strong, have great wrestling, and power in their hands.  It comes down to this.  Is one fighter better than the other, and the answer is yes, Brock Lesnar is better than Shane Carwin.  They are just as powerful as the other; I just think that Brock’s Wrestling will be the deciding factor In this fight.  He will be able to get Carwin to the ground and keep him there as long as he wants.  Plus we have no idea what Carwin will look like after round one.  Will his cardio be a factor?  Will a bigger man leaning on him wear him out?  Who knows but I just think that Brock can get Carwin in deep water and I don’t see Carwin able to tread water for ever.  No I’m not a fan of Lesnar, truth is I really like Carwin as a fighter, I just think Lesnar is harder to beat then people think.  Brock Lesnar via TKO in the 3rd.

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