NFL Draft: 2010-2011 National Football Scouting Report

This is the goldmine of NFL Draft scouting.

The National Scouting Service pre-season senior rankings are a service that NFL teams pay $35,000 for.

Here at Bleacher Report, we're giving them away for free.

Why?

Because it's fool's gold.

Last year at this time, Greg Hardy was ranked number one. In April, he went in the sixth round.

A few years before that, the top five QBs on this list weren't even drafted.

Want the best way to dupe 32 idiots? Put together a scouting list with little to no semblance of accuracy and get it wrong countless times, and STILL charge them $35,000 for it.

Better than working for a living.

Without further ado....

The Ratings

The National Scouting service ranks their players by rounds. Since it is only the seniors, note how there are not 32 players in each round. Rather, the strength of the senior class could be inferred using these rankings.

Since the rankings are almost always a pile of garbage...I wouldn't.

9.0 – 6.8 – Rd 1

6.7 - 1-2

6.6 - 1-2

6.5 - 1-2

6.4 - 2

6.3 - 2

6.2 - 2

6.1 - 2-3

6.0 - 2-3

5.9 - 3

5.8 - 3

5.7 - 3-4

5.6 - 4

5.9 – 5.5 – Rd 3 – 4

5.50 - 5

5.4 – 5.0 – Rd 5 – 7

2.0 - Need more information

1.2 - Insufficient skills but recommended by staff

1.0 - Insufficient skills

Problems With the Rankings

Throughout this slide show, you will notice random potshots at the rankings, this is mostly for humor, but belies the four biggest problems I have with the National Rankings.

1) A lack of historical accuracy--Greg Hardy, pictured above was not the first DE off the board last year, he wasn't even close. NFL teams pay a lot of money for these. They shouldn't.

2) Too many team/position groupings--One of the biggest ways a mock drafter or "big board" compiler knows that he's full of crap if if numerous players from the same school, or in the same position, are grouped together. It's a telltale sign, and the National Rankings are full of them.

"Oh I forgot that guy from Utah, oh, and then UTEP, but I have to get that CB in there..."

3) Ranking by Round--No smart NFL team ranks by round. NFL teams don't know where they're drafting in April and aren't looking for "first rounders." Teams look for starters. To rate a guy as a "first rounder" is idiotic and makes the list artificial since many of their rankings are assured of being wrong and it attempts to predict the unpredictable.

3) Reliance on Historical Significance--Just because certain things have happened or usually happen in the NFL Draft, doesn't mean you base player rankings on them. Picking a certain slot for a player because similar players have went at that pick in the past is a garbage way of ranking players.

Quarterbacks

Only two quarterbacks have a first round ranking.

Christian Ponder (Florida State) is the top quarterback on the list at number eight with Jake Locker close behind at number 10.

Following an almost historical formula, National puts the two big QBs on top and an athletic small school guy behind them.

The list, at this time, looks pretty solid. Obviously some juniors will shake this up quite a bit (Andrew Luck--Stanford, Ryan Mallett--Arkansas

However, the QBs may feel a little snake bitten. As mentioned before, National doesn't have the best luck projecting them. Let the Ponder Vs. Locker votes begin!

For the record, I got Locker in that battle.

Top Ten
1) Christian Ponder (6.7)
2) Jake Locker (6.7)
3) Patrick Devlin--Delaware (6)
4) Nathan Enderle--Idaho (5.8)
5) Jerrod Johnson--Texas A&M (5.8)
6) Tyrod Taylor--Virginia Tech (5.4)
7) Andrew Dalton--Texas Christian (5.3)
8) Casey Keenum--Houston (5.2)
9) Colin Kaepernick--Nevada (5.1)
10) Christopher Dieker--Southern Illinois (5)

Running Backs

This is where the list gets interesting.

As with any big corporation, National Scouting is hard to steer at a moments notice and can lead to some pretty big mistakes.

Graig Cooper (Miami) is their top rated running back, albeit with a 2-3 round grade. He tore his ACL in spring action and is doubtful (but capable) of playing in the season opener.

In the real world, pro scouts take ACL injuries very seriously. Cooper will need to cast all doubt aside to be the top senior back taken come next April.

Top Ten
1) Graig Cooper (6)
2) Daniel Thomas--Kansas State (5.9)
3) Da'Rel Scout--Maryland (5.7)
4) Roy Helu--Nebraska (5.6)
5) Mario Fannin--Auburn (5.4)
6) Derrick Locke--Kentucky (5.3)
7) Vailala Taua--Nevada (5.3)
8) Shaun Draughn--North Carolina (5.2)
9) Anthony Allen--Georgia Tech (5.1)
10) Nicholas Grigsby--Arizona (4.9)

The OH

Any minor fan of college football is asking,

"Wait, Graig Cooper?! Where's Evan Royster (Penn State) and DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma)? Where's Noel Devine?!" (W. Virginia)

Have no fear my friends, for those players, National Scouting has reserved the designation of "OH"

These players all have above average or greater speed but aren't going to be every down backs in the NFL.

Top Ten
1) DeMarco Murray (6.3)
2) Evan Royster (5.9)
3) Noel Devine (5.9)
4) Delone Carter--Syracuse (5.7)
5) Baron Batch--Texas Tech (5.4)
6) Kendall Hunter--Oklahoma State (5.3)
7) Jockee Sanders--W. Virginia (5.2)
8) Quentin Castille--Northwestern St (5)
9) Allen Bradford--Southern Cal (5)
10) Matthew Asiata--Utah (5)

Receivers/Tight Ends

One of the biggest disagreements I have with the National rankings is the location of Weslye Saunders (S. Carolina) who has elite ability at the Tight End position and yet is ranked 5th among TEs behind guys with obvious deficiencies.

The receiver group is uninspiring because the meat of the group come April is going to be juniors and sophomores. This underscores the fact that pegging rounds for five receivers in June is hard enough. When most expect most of the top receivers to be underclassmen, it becomes a complete crap shoot.

Top 5 WR
1) Niles Paul--Nebraska (6.3)
2) Dwayne Harris--East Carolina (5.9)
3) Greg Little--North Carolina (5.9)
4) Jerrel Jernigan--Troy (5.9)
5) Stephen Burton--West Texas A&M (5.7)

Top 5 TE
1) Robert Housler--Florida Atlantic (5.8)
2) Luke Stocker--Tennessee (5.8)
3) David Williams--Arkansas (5.6)
4) Michael McNeill--Nebraska (5.4)
5) Weslye Saunders--South Carolina (5.3)

Offensive Linemen

Going against the grain (wisely, IMO), the list does not put Gabe Carimi as the top tackle in the nation.

Instead, Anthony Costanzo (Boston College) takes top honors--one of the few picks I find myself agreeing with.

Recently, as interior linemen like Mike Iupati, Alex Mack and others have been touted as possible top ten prospects, National has been moving more up their list. Three senior OCs and OGs crack the top 35 total prospects.

Top 5 OT
1) Anthony Costanzo (6.5)
2) DeMarcus Love--Arkansas (6.3)
3) Derek Sherrod--Miss State (6.2)
4) Nate Soldier--Colorado (6)
5) Marcus Gilbert--Florida (6)

Top 5 Interior Linemen
1) Stefen Wisniewski--OC Penn State (6.4)
2) Rodney Hudson--OC Florida State (6.1)
3) Clint Boling--OG Georgia (5.9)
4) Daniel Watkins--OG Baylor (5.7)
5) James Pouncey--OC Florida (5.7)

Defensive Linemen

Marvin Austin (DT North Carolina) is considered by many to be the best defensive linemen to come out of school since...Ndamukong Suh.

Not saying Austin isn't a great prospect, he is, just saying that the NFL is enjoying a bit of a defensive lineman golden era.

Austin is a freak of nature and will be first on a lot of draft lists as the NCAA season rolls around.

He's ninth on the National list, mostly because, historically, defensive tackles aren't a prime position to grab high in the first.

Ninth isn't bad though and is hardly the most egregious error in the rankings. However, some of the talent above him doesn't belong there. Mark Herzlich (LB Boston College), Greg Romeus (DE Pittsburgh), and Von Miller (OLB Texas A&M) are all inferior prospects to Austin.

Top 5 DT
1) Marvin Austin (6.7)
2) Stephen Paea--Oregon State (6.5)
3) Kenrick Ellis--Hampton (5.7)
4) Adrian Taylor--Oklahoma (5.7)
5) Ian Williams--Notre Dame (5.6)

Top 5 NT
1) Jerrell Powe--Ole Miss (6.2)
2) Cornell Banks--Fresno State (4.7)
3) Derrick Hill--California (4.4)
4) Leslie Jasper--Bethel-TN (4.1)
5) Marques Walton--S. Illinois (1.2)

Top 10 DE
1) Adrian Clayborn--Miami (7.3)
2) Allen Bailey--Miami (6.9)
3) Greg Romeus (6.8)
4) Pernell McPhee--Mississippi State (6.4)
5) Jeremy Beal--Oklahoma (6.3)
6) Jabaal Sheard--Pittsburg (6.2)
7) Cameron Heyward--Ohio State (6)
8) Pierre Allen--Nebraska (5.9)
9) Patrick Kerrigan--Purdue (5.8)
10) Cameron Jordan--California (5.7)

Linebackers

Mark Herzlich is a great guy.

He just isn't a top prospect.

First, he's not Aaron Curry, and it takes a player like Aaron Curry for a linebacker to be considered a top three prospect. Secondly, he didn't play football last year after being diagnosed with cancer.

While we can all hope he's a top prospect come April, putting him there now is absurd.

National Scouting gives him a 7.2, making him, in their eyes, a lock first rounder and one of the top senior prospects of the draft, ahead of two QBs, the top OT, and numerous other players the scouts actually have recent tape on.

Meanwhile, Bruce Carter (North Carolina) and Greg Jones (Michigan State) are both considered top linebacking prospects by everyone and their mother and are far down the list.

Top 10 LB
1) Mark Herzlich (7.2)
2) Von Miller--Texas A&M (6.9)
3) Ross Homan--Ohio State (6.3)
4) Bruce Carter--North Carolina (6.2)
5) Lawrence Wilson--Connecticut (6)
6) Colin McCarthy--Miami (5.9)
7) Kenneth Wright--Miss State (5.9)
8) Dontay Moch--Nevada (5.9)
9) Greg Jones--Michigan State (5.8)
10) Scott Lutrus--Connecticut (5.7)

Defensive Backs

With seemingly no rhyme or reason, the scouting list puts some defensive backs as CB, some as FS, or SS, and then some as hybrid players labeled "DC." One may think it would be helpful, but the divisions pretend every NFL team play the same defensive scheme.

It also doesn't take into account the fact that many of these guys play numerous backfield positions throughout their college career and could easily be switched back by an NFL team.

Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), featured above, went back to school although he was considered to be a borderline first round pick in 2009. He is rewarded by the scouting service with a low second round rating for 2010, lower than a LB who didn't even play in 2009 and was considered a second round pick before that.

Crazy.

Can't argue with the top guy though, Prince Amukamara (Nebraska) promises to be a stud at the next level. He shares the top overall ranking of 7.3 with Adrian Clayborn.

Top 10 DB
1) Prince Amukamara (7.3)
2) James Smith--Colorado (6.2)
3) Ras-I Dowling (6.2)
4) DeMarcus Van Dyke--Miami (5.9)
5) Brandon Hogan--W. Virginia (5.9)
6) Marcus Gilchrist--Clemson (5.8)
7) Davon House--New Mexico State (5.7)
8) Chykie Brown--Texas (5.7)
9) Kendric Burney--North Carolina (5.6)
10) Rashad Carmichael--Virginia Tech (5.6)

There You Have It!

At your fingertips, you have a tool that NFL teams pay what would equate to nearly a year's salary for some of us.

It isn't the only tool, but it's a big one. Area scouts and low level personnel guys will waste a lot of time scouting players in the top 50 who will never play a down of NFL football.

Use this tool like the teams do.

Don't form any opinions by it, and don't use it as a basis for any arguments. It has been proven to be a flawed system and wrong too many times to be trusted.

Still, watch college football this year, knowing that you'll be keeping your eye on some of the same players the professionals are.

As for me, I will assume my checks for $35,000 from each of you are in the mail.

I'm waiting...