NBA Free Agents 2010 Predictions: The Complete Best Destination Guide
By (Featured Columnist) on June 30, 2010
21,058 reads
July 1 is almost here.
Enough said.
When it comes to the magnitude of this summer, there's really nothing else that can be said which hasn't already been discussed a hundred times over.
We all know that this next week could be off the Richter Scale when it comes to earth-shattering moves in the NBA.
Rather than talk more about what could be, let's get some definitive answers.
Let's talk about what should be.
During the past three months, I've periodically listed the top three destinations for each of the NBA's most important Free Agents.
(You can find the entire archive here.)
Now it's time to take each of those top three destinations and narrow them down to the very best for each player.
Think of those previous lists as the nominations, while this article will unveil the winner for each player.
To ensure that this is more than just a "best of" style rehashing, I've also included a bunch of the lesser known names who also bear consideration.
In the craziness that is about to ensue, you need a complete guide to the top destination for each player who's about to change the league's landscape as we know it.
Good thing you have a good doctor.
Here's everything you need to know:
Joe Johnson - Atlanta Hawks
It's not that I'm opposed to change. Far from it, actually.
In this case, however, Joe Johnson's smartest choice would be not to mess with the good thing he's already got going.
If you're Joe Johnson, why would you want to move on to a rebuilding team like the Nets and spend a couple of years trying to gain traction? Didn't you just get done doing that in Atlanta?
Would you really want to pair up with another superstar in New York, have to become the team's second gun, and probably play on a roster devoid of role players and depth?
Why potentially pair up with another second-tier star, like Amar'e Stoudemire and have to wait for a rotation to be built around you? You already have a strong rotation and supporting cast in Atlanta!
Why do that when you are the undisputed top dog on your current team, which also happens to feature some of the most athletic and developed young forwards in the league?
Moving on to get away from Mike Woodson is no longer a valid argument either, as Atlanta has recently hired a new coach.
Joe Johnson's three-position versatility is rightfully going to be a coveted commodity this offseason.
However, his skill set has developed alongside a cadre of players who complement each other so well in a hierarchy that is already established.
True, there might be a few extra dollars involved to leave, but the actual chances of personal and professional success are greater alongside the likes of Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams.
Sure, the Hawks have a little ways to go yet. They still need to deepen the bench and solidify the point guard spot.
First-round slaughter at the hands of the Magic notwithstanding, this team is closer to the top of the East than we're giving them credit for.
I would hate to see Joe cash out early on his investment of the past five seasons. He came to Atlanta during one of the franchise's lowest points.
He has been a part of the Hawks' ascension to the NBA's near-elite. Why leave now and miss out on the payoff?
Chris Bosh - Chicago Bulls
While the 2008 Beijing Olympics are mostly remembered for LeBron's unparalleled finishes, Kobe Bryant's veteran clutchness, Carmelo Anthony's new-found motor, and Dwyane Wade's triumphant comeback, it's actually Chris Bosh's defense that has remained an enduring memory for me.
While I've had a few Toronto fans call me out on lauding Bosh's defense, I can't help but wonder if they have short memories and hurt feelings.
True, Bosh didn't play great defense this past season. Neither did any of the other Raptors.
Yes, there is also some bitterness now that it seems like he's all but gone.
Let's rewind to the rest of his career:
Bosh not only was a steadying factor coming off the bench for the Americans during the Olympics, but he also was the glue guy who seemed to do all the little things at the exact right moment.
While Bosh did provide timely post play on offense, it was his defensive communication, mobility, and technical perfection that unquestionably made him the most effective big man for the U.S. during the entire tournament.
Can you imagine pairing him with Joakim Noah and Luol Deng on the Chicago front line? Would you want to try to score inside against that group?
Every single one of those guys is not only a fantastic one-on-one stopper, but a terrifying help defender as well!
Like the Thunder, the Bulls are another attractive fit for Bosh, since they are also already pre-built.
Bosh would be able to blend into an offense without having to absolutely carry it. He would be able to concentrate on the strong points of his game, while deferring to a fellow star, Derrick Rose, for the big shots.
Chicago's lengthy and well-publicized search for post help would be more than adequately addressed with a Bosh signing.
While he's more of a jump shooter than a back-to-the-basket player, he would undoubtedly provide enough across the board to push the Bulls into the East's upper echelon.
Dwyane Wade - Miami Heat
So far the Heat have had the creative offseason that I implored them to accomplish way back in April.
True, they didn't jettison Michael Beasley, but the Heat have ditched nearly everyone else, and can now realistically acquire a second max player, (and possibly a third), to pair with Wade.
At this point, the loyalty factor, along with finally seeing a legitimate step forward, should be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of a Wade return.
Miami has been living in the hangover of their 2006 championship for four seasons now. While they at least showed a little life against the Boston Celtics, this offseason has proven that President Riley will do more than just sit pat.
Sorry, sometimes bad puns just overtake me. I can't help myself.
No matter who the Heat end up signing, be it LeBron, Bosh, Stoudemire, Boozer, etc., Miami has done something this offseason to convince Wade that their championship hunt is shifting back into high gear.
With all that cash, Miami isn't going to strike out on everyone.
At best, Miami might have positioned itself to build one of the greatest trios of all time.
At worst, the Heat will absolutely end this offseason with at least one and a half legitimate stars to pair with Wade and Beasley.
If I'm Dwyane Wade, I'm all in at this point.
Amar'e Stoudemire - Miami Heat
I wish that Amar'e would wise up and realize that Steve Nash brings out the best in him. I wish he would realize that the Suns' unselfish cadre of three-point specialists is where his crazy finishing ability is best utilized.
It just doesn't seem like it's going to happen.
On the flipside, I can't blame Amar'e too much.
He's been in Phoenix for a long time. They haven't won a title yet, much less gone to the Finals. Plus, every time they struggle, his name has been the first on the block. I can't blame him.
So, with that in mind, Amar’e Stoudemire could fit as a centerpiece in Chicago. He could fit as a sidekick for LeBron.
But he fits better with Dwyane Wade in Miami.
Boozer and Bosh have been the bigger rumors when it comes to the Bulls. Stoudemire would essentially be just another jump shooter that can dunk for them.
LeBron is a good passer and another fantastic transition player, but straight small forward/power forward star combinations have often struggled to succeed.
Guard/forward pairings have been much stronger, traditionally, and while Dwyane Wade isn’t a point guard, his driving and passing ability would still mesh well with Stoudemire’s shooting and finishing prowess.
To that point, Miami already has a pretty decent small forward with Michael Beasley remaining on the roster.
While he would certainly move to the bench if LeBron came to town, it would make more sense for the Heat to sign a power forward to pair with Wade, Beasley, a defensive center, and a distributing point guard. (More on that in the next slide.)
The same scenario is somewhat true if Stoudemire would go to New York.
The Knicks already have Danilo Gallinari. So, it would make less sense for them to sign LeBron and Stoudemire than it would to bring in Wade and Stoudemire.
As there’s a much greater probability of Stoudemire moving to Miami alone than for he and Wade to both move to New York, I'm picking the Heat as Stoudemire’s best choice.
Brendan Haywood - Miami Heat
(SPOILER ALERT)
If you follow this epic guide to its conclusion, then you'll find out that I'm not predicting LeBron or Bosh to end up in Miami.
That doesn't mean that it will be a disappointing offseason for the Heat.
Not by a longshot.
(By the way Knicks fans, you can stop cackling. LeBron's not going to New York, either.)
If the Heat can sign Amar'e Stoudemire to play alongside Dwyane Wade, then they might as well use their other near Max money to bring in a couple of reasonably priced free agents who can round out the starting lineup.
They'll need a physical center who doesn't need the ball, but will crash the boards and play tough defense on the majority of nights that Stoudemire inexplicably decides not to.
I'll take Haywood, if he's available, over re-signing Jermaine O'Neal or Joel Anthony any day.
Haywood might find a slightly bigger contract elsewhere, but I think there'd be enough money and enough chance of winning to lure him to South Beach.
He moves without the ball, has a good chip on his shoulder, and competes physically at both ends of the floor. That's enough to make up for his questionable reputation as a locker-room detriment.
Playing with Wade, for Erik Spoelstra or Pat Riley, and towards a legitimate title shot should be plenty of reason for Haywood to lock it up mentally.
Add a floor-stretching bench shooter, a couple of defensive/hustle guy reserves, and a distributing point guard (Steve Blake or Raymond Felton?), and suddenly a Wade/Stoudemire/Beasley/Haywood core is probably the best in the East.
Tyrus Thomas - Phoenix Suns
With Amar'e Stoudemire gone, the Suns are going to be in a difficult spot.
They're going to need a player who can start at power forward, can run the floor, finish above the rim, and who can be had for a fraction of Stoudmire's price.
It also wouldn't hurt if the guy was capable of defending one on one, blocking shots, and rebounding a little more frequently than Amar'e did.
Tyrus Thomas is perfect!
Sure, he has the reputation as a bit of a head case, but he largely shaped up under Larry Brown in Charlotte.
Landing in Phoenix amongst a focused group of "good guys" would certainly be a blessing for Thomas.
Plus, he'd likely be the next in a long line of players who had career years while running with Steve Nash.
Thomas is capable of everything that the Suns need, while also fitting in nicely with their ensemble cast.
Sure, he doesn't have the star power yet that Amar'e does, but he arrives with a much lower price tag, and the capped out Suns wouldn't have been able to afford much more anyways.
This would be the best possible career move for Thomas, and a heck of a rebound for the Suns.
Rudy Gay - Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers weren't in the running when my original Rudy Gay article appeared back in early May.
Consider this a surprise nomination.
Even though I still honestly believe that the Grizzlies are the best destination for Rudy, it just doesn't look like he's returning there.
He's given every indication that he sees greener pastures outside of Memphis, and the Grizzlies have already drafted his replacement.
In speaking about Gay and the Grizzlies, I earlier said:
"If he's honest with himself though, he'll realize that he's a second-tier guy, and that his greatest success will come with this lineup of young guns who have quickly complemented both his strengths and his weaknesses."
Now that Memphis appears to be out of the picture, the exact same analogy fits for Gay and the Clippers.
It appears that Los Angeles has sunk out of the LeBron and Wade sweepstakes, due to the rightfully dark cloud that hangs over their owner, Donald Sterling.
The Clippers just don't have the clout to land one of the biggest names.
Maybe they don't have to.
Rudy Gay makes sense for this team in that they already have a very solid starting four with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, and a healthy Blake Griffin.
All they need is a small forward who can score.
Rudy Gay is the perfect fit, and an upgrade over Travis Outlaw (who I also like a lot).
Gay would get to be part of an ensemble cast that's hopefully one coach and a little better luck away from being a legitimate Playoff contender.
What's more, the Clippers hopefully wouldn't sign him to a full max contract.
They'll be close, but the leftover money could be used to shore up a bench that needs just another piece or two along with D'Andre Jordan.
Both Rudy Gay and the Clippers will end up with the leftovers from this summer's free agent feast. In that regard, these wallflowers were made for each other.
This pairing just makes too much sense not too happen.
Travis Outlaw - Memphis Grizzlies
This essentially works as a trade.
It's kind of like a lower-level version of last year's Ron Artest-Trevor Ariza free agent swap between the Lakers and Rockets.
Outlaw is a physically gifted player who's length, athleticism, and outside shooting have just never seemed to jell enough at one time to make him the star that he was once projected to be.
At the same time, the guy runs and stretches the floor, while having the physical tools to be a good defender. He's going to be around in the league for a long time as a rotation starter or key bench cog.
With Rudy Gay most likely leaving Memphis, the Grizzlies will want a reasonably priced insurance starter for young draftee, Xavier Henry.
Outlaw no longer has Rudy Gay's ceiling, but he doesn't have his price tag either.
He'd be enough to soften the blow of Gay's departure, while helping this up and coming team to stay on track.
Ray Allen - Utah Jazz
The Boston crowd isn't going to like me for this one.
Then again, I'm used to Celtics fans being offended with me.
Maybe that's because most of my wife's family members are Celtics faithful. Or maybe it's something else. But I digress...
(Sit down Lakers fans, your time is coming in the next slide.)
In Boston's case, I honestly think this would be a better move for the Celtics anyways. Improbable Finals run notwithstanding, the team is simply too old and needs an infusion of youth.
They need Ray Allen to move on gracefully in order to open up a spot and some cash for younger legs.
That doesn't mean that Ray Allen has to fade into the woodwork. Not by any means.
This option only works if the Jazz decide to let Carlos Boozer walk. In that case, they'll have enough money left over to make a couple of reasonable signings.
Would Allen really want to move all the way out to Utah at this point in his career?
At closer look, the Jazz actually could be an attractive destination, should Boston choose to part ways with the least important member of their "big four."
Firstly, Utah has a need at shooting guard. Wesley Matthews might be a solid starter down the line, and CJ Miles can also spend time at the two, but neither of those guys has been consistent enough to absolutely win the spot.
Allen would be able to step in, play the minutes that count, and then get plenty of rest while younger legs cover for him.
What's more, if Kyle Korver can't be re-signed, the Jazz are absolutely going to need another three-point specialist.
Even with the drafting of Gordan Heyward, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur are the only proven outside options left on the roster.
Even if Korver comes back, the Jazz would surely welcome another player who can stretch the floor for Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko as they pick-and-roll with Williams.
To that point, Utah's highly-structured offense could be perfect for Allen. He moves well without the ball, still looks to back door cut when possible, and is best as a catch-and-shoot scorer.
Jerry Sloan would value a class act like Allen, whose intelligence and unselfishness would mesh well with the rest of this crew.
Finally, Deron Williams' ridiculous energy and athleticism would again be enough to defensively cover for Allen when on the floor together.
Again, would Allen really want to move all the way out to Utah at this point in his career? If Boston lets him go, he'll be hard-pressed to find a better system or backcourt mate than with the Jazz.
Shannon Brown - Boston Celtics
It would be one of the most loathed defections of all time.
But if I'm the Celtics, I'm letting Ray Allen walk and doing everything I can to steal Brown from my archrivals.
Consider it a shot across the bow that says this rivalry isn't done yet.
Allen is still a good player, but his usefulness to the Celtics is inversely declining as his age increases.
The Celtics need explosiveness, outside shooting, and lots of upside if they're going to squeeze out another title run or two from Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
With Paul Pierce also opting out on Wednesday, it may seem that signing Brown is a suddenly very necessary step towards developing a final version 2.0 of the Celtics' core.
As the older Celtics begin to fade into the background, it will be upon Rajon Rondo and Glen Davis to carry the torch. As good as those two guys are and will be, it won't be enough.
Shannon Brown changes that.
The Celtics would suddenly have a lot of athleticism and potential to go along with all that experience.
What's more, as fellow B/R staffer, Tommy Franz, wrote earlier this week: "Brown could certainly run the wing alongside Rajon Rondo, and that combination could become spectacular to watch on the open floor."
(The rest of Tommy's article can be found here.)
If I'm the Celtics, I thank Allen for all his contributions, take the money that was meant for re-signing him, and use it to go steal a Laker.
David Lee - Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC might make more sense than you realize.
Thunder GM Sam Presti has been very vocal about neither needing nor wanting to spend his cap money on one max contract.
It's sounding more and more likely that Oklahoma City will simply try to improve their supporting cast, while wisely preserving some of their cap space for re-signing their Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green core.
Here's where David Lee comes in.
With no disrespect to Nenad Kristic, Nick Collison, and Etan Thomas, Oklahoma City doesn't have a single "dirty work" player who's talented enough to start on their front line.
Even draft-night acquisition Cole Aldrich will need to prove that he's athletic enough to warrant major rotation minutes.
The Thunder don't need a star, but they could certainly use a little more grit up front.
Lee fits well with this team as he doesn't need plays run for him, does all the "little things" on the offensive end, and while he is undersized at 6'9", he's proven adept at playing either the four or five spot.
That last detail might be the most important.
While Jeff Green is a rare "five tool" NBA player who can do a little bit of everything, it's still not certain whether he should be a full-time starter at the power forward spot.
Signing Lee would allow Green to be the sixth man, yet still book starter's minutes by filling in at both forward positions.
Alternatively, the Thunder could go undersized on certain nights and during crunch time by playing Lee at center along with Green and Durant up front.
Lee's nonstop motor would surely endear him to the blue-collar, cowboy hat crowd in OKC.
Either way, Oklahoma City's signing of Lee would add production and hustle at a position of need, while still preserving enough future cap flexibility.
Sounds like the no-brainer move that Sam Presti has become accustomed to making.
Dirk Nowitzki - Houston Rockets
I know that Dallas seems the likely pick.
I know that Phoenix is the sentimental favorite.
I know that following Wade or LeBron to Miami, New York, or Chicago is maybe the smartest choice legacy wise.
I also know that a Dirk move to Houston would raise some serious questions:
How is Houston any better prepared to win a championship than Dallas?
Heck, at least the Mavericks have consistently made the playoffs, while the injury-riddled Rockets have been sporadic participants.
How in the world would Mark Cuban allow and/or facilitate a Dirk move to a division and, more importantly, in-state rival?
Look at this Rockets team for a minute, though.
They've been rumored to be hot on the trail of Chris Bosh. But in my opinion, he's not the guy that they really need.
True, Luis Scola is a fantastic player. Any team would be happy to have him.
But he's really just another overachieving banger whose physicality makes up for his lack of athleticism. Houston already has too many players like that.
Houston can already scrap, claw, and defend with the best of the best. What they need is points, and lots of them.
They've already got a coach in Rick Adelman, who has run powerhouse offenses before with the right personnel.
Houston really just needs one more big gun.
A starting five of Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Nowitzki, and Yao Ming would score lots of buckets from all points on the floor, using all possible methods.
What's more, doubling down on Yao or Nowitzki would only open up a defense for further damage.
Dirk needs a tough front-line to protect him. Yao's not necessarily a hard-nosed player. But his 7'6" height would pair well with Nowitzki's seven feet.
More importantly, Houston has enough scrappers like Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, and even Jared Jeffries and Jordan Hill, to do the real dirty work on defense.
Again, I like Luis Scola a lot. But Nowitzki would be an obvious upgrade, and a reason to let the Argentinean walk this year.
If Houston's got the money and desire to sign Bosh, then Dirk is certainly a realistic target who can be had for a similar contract.
Some might see a move to Houston as relatively lateral, both literally and figuratively.
But the Rockets just need one more piece, whereas Dallas' pieced-together roster has already fallen to pieces one too many times.
Luis Scola - Detroit Pistons
This guy is just flat-out fun to watch.
Yes, he sometimes flops at an Anderson Varejao-like rate, but there's no questioning his toughness or his motor.
He's smart, can score the ball, and does all the little things well.
It's too bad that the Rockets probably won't keep him.
On the other hand, he's exactly what the Pistons need.
Consider him the "anti-Charlie Villanueva."
This would have to be a sign and trade, as the Pistons don't really even have enough money to sign him. They'd even be over the cap and paying luxury tax if they brought him in on the mid-level exception.
However, sending Tayshaun Prince in exchange for Jared Jeffries expiring contract and a signed-and-traded Luis Scola would be a coup for the Pistons.
They would gain the toughness they need up front, while still replacing Prince's lanky defense with a platoon of Austin Daye, Jonas Jerebko, and Jeffries.
Villaneuva could continue to jack up shots and play no defense from the bench.
At least now it might be in a productive manner on a team that was winning a few more games.
True, this would cause a bit of a logjam at the wing for the Rockets, with Shane Battier, Kevin Martin, and Trevor Ariza already getting the bulk of the minutes.
Yet, adding a defender with Prince's pedigree for essentially moving a player you were losing anyways and cashing out on Jeffries contract one year later would be too good to pass up.
The Rockets would have plenty of flexibility to facilitate the aforementioned Dirk Nowitzki deal, and a host of talented defenders to flank him (and Yao) with.
They'd suddenly be a defensive nightmare for everyone in the West, including Kobe Bryant's Lakers.
Raymond Felton - Indiana Pacers
Felton certainly underwhelmed in the Playoffs this year, getting absolutely annihilated by Jameer Nelson.
Still, he's going to garner a lot of interest from point-guard hungry teams around the league.
While he's probably not returning to a Bobcats group where Larry Brown has soured on him, Felton's steady, but unspectacular enough to be a useful piece of the puzzle for a team that's short on cash.
The Pacers want the more explosive Darren Collison from New Orleans, but I just don't think that's going to happen for them (more on that in a moment).
Frankly, if I couldn't get Collison, I'd rather concoct a cap-saving trade to swipe Jose Calderon away from Toronto. I just have the feeling that Indiana's focus will be too far narrowed to only Collison.
When they strike out on their trade aspirations, they'll be forced to go to the free agent market, only to find the shelves a little bit bare.
Don't get me wrong. I think that Felton could be helpful to the Pacers.
He's not particularly fast, but Jim O'Brien does want to push the ball. Felton has the build and the skillset to potentially become a poor man's Andre Miller.
If the Pacers can't get a "score in bunches" point guard, then they just need a steady hand to run their team as they try to develop their wing scoring.
You could do a lot worse than Raymond Felton.
Carlos Boozer - New York Knicks
It's probably not a good thing if Carlos Boozer is the headline signing for the Knicks this offseason.
Afterall, David Lee could replicate much of Boozer's production at a much lower price, if re-signed.
However, if New York—a team that now possesses even more cap room than previously expected—is able to sign a top-flight guard, such as LeBron, Wade, or even Joe Johnson, Boozer will prove to be an extremely valuable acquisition.
Moving to New York would give Boozer the recognition, the spotlight, and the cash that he's indicated are important to him. Moving there with another top-flight free agent will hide the fact that outside of offensive production, he's not really a true superstar.
During Boozer's first two seasons in Cleveland, he built a reputation—which has largely endured to this day—as the most effective wingman that LeBron's ever had.
He's a finisher who absolutely thrives when the overall defensive attention is on someone else.
Placing Boozer in a similar "co-star" role on one of basketball's biggest stages would be a New York show worth watching.
John Salmons - New York Knicks
I really thought Salmons had found a home in Milwaukee.
I really believed that the Bucks would find a way to bring him back.
He just seemed to belong there.
His opting out wasn't too much of a surprise, as he was just looking for a few more bucks (pun intended?).
Milwaukee's trading for Corey Maggette was a huge surprise to me, as it largely closed the door on a Salmons return.
Salmons is a rare "five-tool" NBA player who can do a little bit of everything. The problem is that he just doesn't do enough of anything well enough to be a legitimate star.
Still, he's not a bad player to have as your third scoring option.
If you're keeping score, you've probably noticed that the Knicks have so far failed to land anyone but Carlos Boozer.
Remove those toasters from your bathtubs, Knicks fans.
New York might not get everything they want this year, as they seem to have lost some momentum to the Miamis and Chicagos of this world.
At the same time, they've got enough cash to build a pretty good team, and still have some left over dough for next year when Carmelo Anthony is on the block.
I also think that New York could find a way to swap Eddy Curry's expiring contract, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas' upside, and a pick for Darren Collison or Chris Paul. (If Paul's the target, we'll obviously need a lot more cash and picks in the mix too).
Suddenly, using two of the max contracts' money between Boozer, Salmons, and facilitating a Collison or Paul trade, while still keeping the door open to land Carmelo next season doesn't sound so bad.
Salmons could start this year at the two guard alongside Collison/Paul, Gallinari, and Boozer, while bringing back a defensive underling like Earl Barron.
They'd all do extremely well with D'Antoni, have a bit of the underdog vibe going for them, and would be flat out devastating in 2012 if they can outbid New Jersey for Carmelo Anthony.
See? There might still be reason to be a Knicks fan.
Even if LeBron and Wade probably aren't coming.
JJ Redick - Minnesota Timberwolves
Now that TimberWolves GM David Kahn has acquired more small forwards in this year's draft than he did point guards in last year's, Minnesota no longer needs to sign a player like Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson.
Outside of needing to resolve the Al Jefferson / Kevin Love logjam at power forward by swapping one for a shot blocker, the Wolves really only need a three-point specialist in order to move forward in their rebuilding phase.
JJ Redick was recently recommended to me by good friend and blossoming NBA junkie, fellow B/R Featured Columnist, Mike Schottey.
He actually really makes sense for the Wolves. (JJ that is, not Mike. That would just be horrifying...)
Minnesota hasn't had a legitimate deep threat since Fred Hoiberg retired with heart troubles a few seasons ago.
Redick, who saved his career by playing hugely productive minutes down the stretch for Orlando this season, is young, modestly priced, and seemingly eager to spread his wings.
What's more, JJ proved that he can do more than just score from outside this year. He's an underrated passer and a much smarter defender than advertised.
Redick would be a nice fit as a savvy and floorstretching cog in Kurt Rambis' "Diet Triangle" offense.
True, a Redick and Johnny Flynn backcourt would be slightly undersized, but they would be quick, and they'd have lanky defensive whirlybird, Corey Brewer, to help them out in the starting lineup.
As a longtime and diehard Wolves fan, I've been well trained to be a realist (and a pessimist, and a masochist).
Minnesota's not going to attract any big-time free agents until they've internally built a winner through draft picks or low-level traded players who don't have a choice but to play a few seasons in the Twin Cities.
Sure, Redick could stay in Orlando and win a ton more games next season. But he'll also probably never win a starting job there, and has to compete with a ton of other wings just to get any meaningful playing time.
By going to Minnesota, JJ Redick would have a chance to make more money and easily win a starting job on a team that's paper thin at shooting guard (until Kahn drafts 17 of them next year).
He'd be getting in on the ground floor of a team where he could spread his wings and be part of a legitimate building process.
Plus, then the Wolves don't have to draft Mike Schottey next season.
Al Harrington - New Jersey Nets
Al Harrington's been around the NBA block a couple of times.
Yes, he was overpaid on his last contract.
Yes, he's a bit of a ball hog at times who doesn't play much defense.
Yes, he's never really been a winner.
No, he's not the free agent signing that the Nets were looking for.
However, I just don't think that this will be New Jersey's year to wrest away one of the truly big names.
Jay-Z and Prokhorov aside, the Nets organization is still too far in limbo to have a better pitch than the established franchises in this bidding war.
That doesn't mean they can't make a serious run at Carmelo Anthony next year, though.
If the Nets can show next year's free agents that they truly are headed in the right direction, they'll suddenly become the prime destination they hoped to be this year.
For now, when the Nets realize that all the big fish have gone elsewhere, they'll fill the gap by signing Harrington to a one-year, well paid deal (to make up for the lack of long term commitment).
For all of Harrington's faults, the man can still play three positions and absolutely score the basketball.
He could step in right away and play small forward alongside Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez. Or, he could play the four spot and let Favors develop for a little while from the bench.
Either way, he makes a lot of sense in the short term for the Nets, if and when they fall short of their overreaching aspirations.
In that case, New Jersey would win more games this year with him than without him.
LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers
This might not be the most chic choice, unless you're a Cavs fan.
But it's the right thing to do.
LeBron could be an icon by winning a title elsewhere, but he could be a hero by doing it in Cleveland.
I think it's safe to say that, after all LeBron, the Cavs, and the city have been through, winning one title in Cleveland would mean as much as winning three rings somewhere else.
At the same time, this decision also still makes a lot of basketball sense.
Even though Tom Izzo isn't coming, the Cavaliers have a lot to offer LeBron James.
No matter what anyone says, LeBron is allowed input when it comes to a coaching search. It would be silly for him not to at this point.
No matter who would finally be acquired, they couldn't help but have more creative offenses than Mike Brown.
At the same time, the Cavs are a good defensive team because of Brown's influence, and one has to expect that they wouldn't simply lose this quality overnight.
It would seem a bit premature for LeBron to give up on the Cavs before finding out whether a coaching change, a more open-minded offense, and a few last roster tweaks were enough to take that final step.
Cleveland has one of the deepest benches in the league, and a roster that's already been custom-built around LeBron.
With Brown off the bench, Shaq off the roster, and Zydrunas Ilguaskas possibly retiring, the Cavs might finally start their most athletic frontcourt players (JJ Hickson and Anderson Varejao) together with James.
During his career, Antawn Jamison has previously filled the role of sixth man quite well. I think he'd be a better fit coming off the Cavs bench with second unit scoring and down-the-stretch minutes.
Shaq's money is coming off the books. While that doesn't open up a lot of room for the capped-out Cavs, it might allow them to find another scoring guard.
Any combination of Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, and/or Delonte West could also be retained or turned into additional scoring help. Either way, the Cavs have some flexibility and tradable assets.
Finally, there's a lot of legacy at stake here.
I don't think anyone would blame LeBron if he re-signed for a three-year deal, found out whether a few minor changes were enough, and gave Cleveland the first decade of his career.
People would completely understand if he eventually had to move on.
At least he tried.
As a TimberWolves fan, I can unequivocally tell you that no one felt betrayed when Kevin Garnett finally moved on from Minnesota.
He had given us everything he had.
In the end, it just wasn't enough.
And neither were we.
On the other hand, if LeBron leaves now and wins, then he ran away from adversity to greener pastures.
If he leaves and loses, then he must never have been a winner at all.
At least if he stays and loses, then he stoically chased something that wasn't meant to be. But it wasn't for lack of effort.
If he stays and wins, then he overcame adversity, saved a crumbling city, and became a hero.
It's just the right thing to do.
Paul Pierce - Chicago Bulls
Oh my goodness.
As if this comprehensive guide wasn't jam-packed enough, Paul Pierce just forced me to return to my computer this morning.
I gotta tell you, this doesn't bode well for the Celtics.
If Pierce wanted to stay with Boston, he'd remain in his current deal.
This doesn't look like an attempt to sign for less and give the Celtics some cap flexibility.
If Pierce was looking for another ring, you'd have to think that he'd see this through to the end in Boston.
At the same time, maybe Pierce sees some writing on the wall.
Maybe Doc isn't coming back and Ray Allen is as good as gone.
(On a side tangent, has there ever been an offseason where both Finals participants are about to potentially lose their coaches?)
Maybe Pierce will chase another title by signing the veteran minimum with somebody like the Mavericks, Spurs, or—gasp!—the Lakers.
More likely, he'll chase another title along with a healthy paycheck.
The kind of paycheck the Celtics may no longer be willing to write.
So far in this NBA landscape that I've painted, the Bulls are the only ones with significant cap space left to add someone like Pierce without changing the aforementioned plans.
This actually works out nicely because it makes a lot of sense either way.
The Bulls need shooting and leadership, and would definitely be able to slot Pierce in at the two guard alongside Rose, Deng, Noah, and Bosh.
Their bench might be a bit sparse, but the Bulls starting lineup would be offensively multi-faceted and defensively superior.
I'll take my chances with that group any day.
Conclusion:
Congratulations!
You made it to the end!
If you actually read every single word on every single slide, you can give yourself a pat on the back. That is, as long as you still have the stamina to do so.
Now that you have a PhD in this year's NBA Free Agency Frenzy, I invite you to share any thoughts that you have in the comments section.
Let's kick off this Free Agency period in style.
It's gonna be a blast.
Trust me on this one. After all, I am a Doctor.
- "Dr. Trade"
P.S. Consider yourselves lucky. I didn't even bother with slides for Josh Childress, Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry, Steve Blake, Nate Robinson, and Shaq.
By the way, they would read:
Josh Childress - Sacramento Kings
Mike Miller - Portland TrailBlazers
Kyle Lowry - Los Angeles Lakers
Steve Blake - Miami Heat
Nate Robinson - Boston Celtics
Shaq - A TNT seat alongside Charles, Kenny, & C-Webb.
Time to go take a nap... We have a big week ahead of us.
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