To Draft Or Not To Draft: Phil Kessel vs. Every #2 Pick Since 1990

Much has been made of Toronto GM Brian Burke's decision to trade a package of picks to Boston for winger Phil Kessel.

One of those picks ended up as the second overall selection. The Leaf-haters have thus been participating in a ridiculing feeding frenzy at the expense of the blue and white.

But what is that pick really worth?

Now that the first round is over and Tyler Seguin is a Boston Bruin, it's time to take a look at what the value of a second overall selection actually is.

First, allow me to say that I wish no ill will to Seguin and I truly hope he has a brilliant career.

However, his success will be measured against that of Phil Kessel for his entire career.

Good luck, kid.

The following slides are designed to measure the success of every second overall selection since 1990 to determine if they became, or could become, a better pro than Phil Kessel.

Although I'll look at stats, I won't use hard numbers as that is a poor measuring stick.

However, I'll look at rough averages as well as things like how quickly they made it to the show, how good they were early in their career, did they reach their potential, did their careers have any longevity (for the earlier picks), etc.

This is completely subjective and, with it being such, I'm sure that it will annoy more than a few readers.

This is going to be a barn-burner!

1990 - Petr Nedved C

Peter Nedved had an up-and-down career but he was generally an above-average point producer, and his per-game averages actually mirror those of Kessel.

Nedved debuted in the NHL the year he was drafted but didn't really have success until his third season (just like Kessel).

After being traded twice, Nedved had his best success with the Pittsburgh Penguins and maxed out in 1995/96 with 45 goals and 99 points.

Considering the inconsistency and similar career trajectory, this is a wash:

Phil Kessel - 0
Second Pick - 0

1991 - Pat Falloon RW

Pat Falloon is best known as the guy drafted after Eric Lindros.

Although Fat Pat had some early success with a 59-point rookie campaign, he was never able to duplicate those numbers and eventually washed out of the league after the 99/2000 season.

Clear win here for PK.

Phil Kessel - 1
Second Pick - 0

1992 - Alexei Yashin C

This is an extremely tough one to judge.

Based on talent, Yashin wins in a landslide. Based on point production, Yashin still wins.

However, based on attitude and locker room presence, this is a clear win for Kessel. And this says more about how brutal of a human being Yashin is, as PK has a few attitude skeletons in his closet as well.

Based on hindsight, if you had a choice between Phil Kessel and Alexei Yashin, knowing everything we do about both players, who would you choose?

Kessel wins by a hair.

Phil Kessel - 2
Second Pick - 0

1993 - Chris Pronger D

Pronger by an infinite number. It's not even close.

Phil Kessel - 2
Second Pick - 1

Note: Alexandre Daigle went first and Chris Gratton went third. This could have easily been another win for PK.

1994 - Oleg Tverdovsky D

I truly think Oleg Tverdovsky was drafted 10 years too early.

His talent was immense but his soft play couldn't translate into consistent production in the clutch-and-grab era he played in for most of his career.

However, he did have three 50+ point seasons, which is nothing to sneeze at for a defenseman.

Nonetheless, his value to his teams was rarely as a go-to guy, which is what Kessel is.

Phil Kessel - 3
Second Pick - 1

1995 - Wade Redden D

Wade Redden is not a sexy player. He doesn't excite people or bring crowds to their feet.

However, with eight consecutive seasons of 35-50 points and a career plus/minus of +162, Redden was one of the most reliable and productive top pairing rear guards in the league.

Until he signed with the Rangers. How does Glenn Sather still have a job?

Nevertheless, this is a loss for PK (for now).

Phil Kessel - 3
Second Pick - 2

1996 - Andrei Zyuzin D

In 12 seasons, Zyuzin still hasn't outscored Kessel. AZ was one of the bigger busts in draft history.

Big win here for PK.

Phil Kessel - 4
Second Pick - 2

1997 - Patrick Marleau C

I expect a lot of angry comments regarding this slide.

Marleau vs. Kessel is a wash.

WHAT!!??

Marleau took nine seasons to reach his potential and his early production actually mirrors Kessel's.

Also, for a player who many scouts believed was better than Joe Thornton, his first eight seasons were a big disappointment.

The same cannot be said about Phil Kessel. He scored 36 goals as a 20-year-old and 30 last year playing on a bad team. Both accomplished in only 70 games played.

Sorry, but this is a wash.

Phil Kessel - 4
Second Pick - 2

1998 - David Legwand C

David Legwand has been a serviceable pro over his career, but he has never lived up to his draft status.

Not only has Phil Kessel out-produced Legwand on a per-game basis, he already has two more 30-goal seasons.

Sorry Leggy, you lose.

Phil Kessel - 5
Second Pick - 2

1999 - Daniel Sedin LW

Daniel Sedin has finally evolved into a top player and perhaps the best passing winger in the game.

However, let's look at his first four years in goal production: 20, 9, 14, 18 for a total of 61.

Phil Kessel: 11, 19, 36, 30 for a total of 97.

Because Daniel Sedin eventually reached his potential I'll give this a wash. Otherwise, it could have been a win for PK again.

Phil Kessel - 5
Second Pick - 2

2000 - Dany Heatley RW

Heatley has been a point-per-game player or better his entire career.

He's also scored 50 goals twice and just won a Gold Medal. Sorry Kessel, you lose this round.

Phil Kessel - 5
Second Pick - 3

2001 - Jason Spezza C

Now we have a competition.

After a slow start to his career, Spezza blew up in his third season with a 90-point campaign.

Since that time, he's become one of the better point producers in the league and his career numbers to date are slightly better that a ppg average.

Spezza wins, by a nose.

Phil Kessel - 5
Second Pick - 4

2002 - Kari Lehtonen G

After winning the Finnish League's equivalent of the Vezina and Hart trophies as an 18-year-old, Kari Lehtonen became the highest drafted European goalie ever when Atlanta selected him second overall in 2002.

Fast forward eight years (and six NHL seasons), and although he's shown flashes of ability, injuries and inconsistency have him labeled a bust.

The Dallas Stars are hoping they can unleash his potential.

Until then, it's a win for PK.

Phil Kessel - 6
Second Pick - 4

2003 - Eric Staal C

This picture says it all.

Stanley Cup winner, Gold Medal winner, team captain, 100-point season, 40+ goal season(s).

Easy win for easy-E.

Phil Kessel - 6
Second Pick - 5

2004 - Evgeni Malkin C

Geno has simply become one of the best players in the league.

1 Conn Smythe
1 Art Ross
1 Calder
2 Hart runner up

Easy win for Malkin and the second-pick class.

Phil Kessel - 6
Second Pick - 6

Tie game.

2005 - Bobby Ryan RW

No longer the "player drafted after Sydney Crosby", Bobby Ryan has established himself as an emerging power forward and potential star player.

His career trajectory to date is almost identical to Kessel's, although Phil emerged a bit sooner (and drafted a year later).

Either way, this one is a wash as both are legit young wingers with star potential (if they aren't stars already).

Still tied.

Phil Kessel - 6
Second Pick - 6

2006 - Jordan Staal C

This was Phil Kessel's draft year as well (fifth overall), so I'll need to get into the hard stats more than I did on the other slides.

Staal has played in 35 more NHL games than Kessel.

However, he's scored 12 fewer goals and had one less assist.

Although the sample size is smaller (60 games to 15), Phil Kessel is a point-per-game playoff performer with nine goals and six assists in 15 playoff games.

Compared to Jordan's 24 points in 60 playoff games

Hey Boston, think you could have used Kessel's kind of production against Philly?

This is another PK win.

Phil Kessel - 7
2nd Pick - 6

2007 - James van Riemsdyk LW

78 NHL games doesn't really provide a great sample size to compare his value to that of Kessel.

However, I can't ignore PK's 66 goals in his past 140 games. Until JvR can match that, this is a win for Kessel.

Considering the success of the kid on the next slide, this call was easy.

Phil Kessel - 8
2nd Pick - 6

2008 - Drew Doughty D

I watched this moment live, drunk on pride (and beer).

The next Ray Bourque. PK takes it on the chin on this slide.

Phil Kessel - 8
Second Pick - 7

2009 - Victor Hedman D

Before I even explain why, this is a wash.

Hedman had a decent rookie season with 20 points in 74 games and it takes time for defensemen to develop (usually, Doughty-like phenoms notwithstanding)

Also, considering he's been compared to Chris Pronger, he'll need a couple more seasons to develop, just as Pronger did.

Too early to give this an honest win either way.

Therefore, the score remains the same.

Phil Kessel - 8
Second Pick - 7

Conclusion - Toronto Wins!!

With the score 8-7 in favor of the Phil Kessel trade, this is a clear victory for St. Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

What would you rather have?

Guaranteed production from a 22-year-old sniper on an improving team with exciting young talent? Kessel hasn't even hit his prime yet but everything points to a perennial 35-40 goal scorer with 50 goal upside.

Or a draft pick with unknown potential and zero NHL experience?

The evidence is clear: You could end up with the next Heatley or Malkin. Or, you might get the next Pat Faloon or Andrei Zyuzin.

God does not play dice with the Universe. Neither does Brian Burke.