Why I was so destined to be right when picking Seattle
By on June 15, 2010
55 reads
What's worse than being 16 games under .500 and 11.5 games back midway through June? Being 16 games under when you were predicted by many to be 16 games over at this point.
The Seattle Mariners have not only had a tough season to watch in many baseball standards - but have painfully disappointed not just the city of Seattle this time but the thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands that picked them as the "sleeper" in the AL West. And as you may recall in one of our Radio shows this past semester, we had a guest predict them as a sleeper for the World Series.
Seattle was 85-77 last season and with the way the West was lining up they only needed to plug a few holes to get back on top, but...
I instantly refuted this on the show and with my reasoning then I will explain it now and tell you why it was so easy to know that this Seattle team just wasn't good enough to make the cut.
1. "Too many new faces getting leadership roles for Seattle."
Jack Zduriencik, better known as Jack Z, and the Mariners went out and made some pretty crafty and risky moves this off-season to try and make a run at their first division title since 2001. The Angels who have dominated the division as of late lost big named bats in Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero and lost their long-time ace John Lackey - this prompted a big push for a "win-now" off-season for the Mariners.
They go out and sign former Angel 3B Figgins for four years, $36 million - so Figgins is here to stay.
They traded away a huge contract in Carlos Silva for another over paid contract with Milton Bradley - Bradley has another year left on that deal.
They traded away the inconsistent Brandon Morrow and landed a steady reliever in Brandon League.
Perhaps the biggest deal of the entire off-season just because of what it has done for the teams involved was landing Cliff Lee from the Phillies.
They resigned Erik Bedard short term and Jack Wilson for two years.
Finally they landed a first basemen in Casey Kotchman to finalize the roster heading into Spring Training.
Seattle has been kicking themselves every since trading away prospect Adam Jones in the deal to get Bedard and have been looking for a CF replacement - but one of the players on this Seattle team that I thought had the tools to get the job done was Franklin Guiterrez - so for now he has lived up to that height.
With Ichiro in the lead-off spot they needed to find a spot in the line-up for Figgins. The 2-hole seemed like a perfect fit, but when Figgins was hitting below the Mendoza line for the majority of the season he found himself moving down towards the back up of the line-up so the Figgins experiment has failed tremendously.
With Guiterrez and Ichiro Seattle just needed one more OF to round out the group - insert Milton Bradley. Just two years removed from his best season as a pro, Bradley has struggled to find any plate consistency and recently emotional stability. I thought that maybe a return to the AL West is what Bradley needed after failing miserably in the Windy City on the north side last year, but just as Bradley so often does - he's disappointed nearly every fan in the city of Seattle as well.
Felix Hernandez was already the ace heading into the season, but add Cliff Lee and we're talking about a two-headed monster that almost guarantees 2 wins a week. An offseason injury landed Cliff Lee on the DL and early King Felix woes continued to bury Seattle before we hit the month of May.
Bedard and Wilson both started the season on the DL and Brandon League has yet to fill the void left by Brandon Morrow in the pen.
2. "Too many things have to go right for Seattle."
This statement has proved to be everything and more. When I said that there were too many uphill battles Seattle has to climb - none of the above, minus the Lee DL stint, had happened yet.
Here's what has gone wrong for Seattle:
Bradley asked for a leave of absence
Figgins is hitting .233 with only 11 extra base-hits
King Felix is 4 - 5 with an okay 3.61 ERA
pitching sensation Doug Fister has landed himself on the DL with arm fatigue
the back end of the rotation is a combined 0-10 with a 6.50 ERA
Erik Bedard still hasn't thrown a pitch
Aardsma is 0 - 4 with 4 blow saves and a 6.55 ERA
set-up man Mark Lowe may have season ending surgery
the offense is averaging about 4 runs a game
Kotchman is still hitting below the Mendoza line
Ken Griffey was caught napping in the clubhouse and decided to retire
This just doesn't look like a good 2010 was in the cards for Don Wakamatsu and the Mariners.
3. "Seattle won't stay healthy"
I kinda covered this in the last section, but I'll really break apart who has gotten injured position by position.
C - Kenji Johjima shocked Seattle when he decided to head back home to Japan to finish out his playing days and this left a big hole for the Mariners in a very important position. They started using a tandem in Rob Johnson and Adam Moore, but a left heal injury to Moore left him on the 15 day DL with a mid-June return. Moore was then replaced by Josh Bard - who then suffered a calf strain and has no time-table set for his return.
1B - The only injury this position has seen is a measly .197 batting average obtained by Casey Kotchman while playing the spot.
2B - Figgins has managed to remain healthy, but once again a .233 BA has Mariner fans wondering where he's gone wrong.
SS - Last year they acquired Jack Wilson from the Pirates and he's performed when on the field however, he does not have a return date for his DL stint either.
3B - Jose Lopez has also managed to stay healthy, but only a year removed from his best as a pro with 25 homers and 96 RBI - Lopez has followed suit with the rest of the team and is hitting .227 with 4 homers and 27 RBI.
OF - Bradley wasn't injured, but spent time on the in-active list when he found himself searching for help from the Seattle fan base.
SP - Here's where the fun begins: Doug Fister after mustering a 2.45 ERA and many 8 inning starts he landed on the 15 day DL with arm-fatigue and coud be back late next week. Cliff Lee missed the first month of action with an elbow injury that left Seattle staring from the cellar from the beginning. Erik Bedard has yet to throw a pitch, but eyes the all-star break as a return date. That is three starters for Seattle that have spent time on the shelf this season. Those who haven't? An overwhelmed King Felix, and Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell's combined 0-10 6.50 ERA stats.
RP - Mark Lowe could have season ending back surgery that basically writes off Seattle for a team that already had a subpar bullpen.
This just happens to be one of those snake bit seasons, if Seattle becomes sellers Lee, Kotchman, Lopez and Bradley could be trade bait for some decent prospects and dumping some salary as the 2011 Free Agency could be one of the best we've ever seen.
4. "There's too much hype for Seattle"
There was - there really was. The world series prediction on the radio show was proof enough. I understood the hype and saw the potential this team had, but the number one thing to overcome in the majors the past few season has been hype.
After Colorado's miracle run in 2007 everyone said this team was the next best thing in the NL they fell flat on their faces in '08 Hurdle was fired - insert Tracey after they had been written off and Colorado returned to the post-season.
After Tampa's even more miracle run in 2008 they were given all the hype to repeat their magic in 2009, but a tough schedule and a division with the Red Sox and resurgent Yankees team left the Rays in third place. Now that there wasn't as much pressure on this Rays team they are back on top and have the best record in baseball.
Last year the Giants had an awesome run at the wildcard that fell short, but analysts - and even I - had the Giants taking the division this year - the offense has struggled and injuries have plagued them.
I think there is something to say about hype and having to live up to expectations that can really haunt a team all season long. This year is pretty evident of that - Mariners, White Sox, Phillies.
It pays to be the underdog in the majors as of late - Padres, Braves, Mets, Blue Jays
5. "The Bullpen won't get it done and Seattle may have lost some of its talent"
The Bullpen hasn't got it done. They have suffered more losses than any other pen in baseball - 22 - and have almost as many losses out of the bullpen than the Rays do all season.
Let's also not forget the players that have left Seattle:
Carlos Silva won 5 games in 2 season for Seattle. This year he has an 8-1 record with a 2.83 ERA.
Adrian Beltre had some good seasons with Seattle, but never returned to his 2004 form when he led the entire National League with 45 home runs. This season in Boston he is hitting .335 with 9 homers and 44 RBI.
Russell Branyan had a career year in Seattle last year hitting 30 home runs for the first time. Although the .254 batting average doesn't say much in Cleveland, but it wasn't high in Seattle either he is there to hit home runs - he has 8 this season despite missing the first month of the season while on the DL.
Kenji Johjima wasn't the best catcher in the game, but much like Oakland's Kurt Suzuki he was very underrated and was a career .290 hitter between Japan and the US.
It may not look like much, but for a team struggling to hit and pitch right now these 4 players could have a huge impact on the rest of the club-house. Insert Beltre at DH, Silva back in the rotation, Branyan at first, and Johjima behind the plate. The 16 game under Mariners could be .500.
And my final quote regarding the Mariners, "Will they contend? Sure, but this division still belongs to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim."
It's only June, but Seattle better turn it on real quick, if they fall any further or don't make any progress - there may not be a bigger seller come July 31st.
The Seattle Mariners have not only had a tough season to watch in many baseball standards - but have painfully disappointed not just the city of Seattle this time but the thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands that picked them as the "sleeper" in the AL West. And as you may recall in one of our Radio shows this past semester, we had a guest predict them as a sleeper for the World Series.
Seattle was 85-77 last season and with the way the West was lining up they only needed to plug a few holes to get back on top, but...
I instantly refuted this on the show and with my reasoning then I will explain it now and tell you why it was so easy to know that this Seattle team just wasn't good enough to make the cut.
1. "Too many new faces getting leadership roles for Seattle."
Jack Zduriencik, better known as Jack Z, and the Mariners went out and made some pretty crafty and risky moves this off-season to try and make a run at their first division title since 2001. The Angels who have dominated the division as of late lost big named bats in Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero and lost their long-time ace John Lackey - this prompted a big push for a "win-now" off-season for the Mariners.
They go out and sign former Angel 3B Figgins for four years, $36 million - so Figgins is here to stay.
They traded away a huge contract in Carlos Silva for another over paid contract with Milton Bradley - Bradley has another year left on that deal.
They traded away the inconsistent Brandon Morrow and landed a steady reliever in Brandon League.
Perhaps the biggest deal of the entire off-season just because of what it has done for the teams involved was landing Cliff Lee from the Phillies.
They resigned Erik Bedard short term and Jack Wilson for two years.
Finally they landed a first basemen in Casey Kotchman to finalize the roster heading into Spring Training.
Seattle has been kicking themselves every since trading away prospect Adam Jones in the deal to get Bedard and have been looking for a CF replacement - but one of the players on this Seattle team that I thought had the tools to get the job done was Franklin Guiterrez - so for now he has lived up to that height.
With Ichiro in the lead-off spot they needed to find a spot in the line-up for Figgins. The 2-hole seemed like a perfect fit, but when Figgins was hitting below the Mendoza line for the majority of the season he found himself moving down towards the back up of the line-up so the Figgins experiment has failed tremendously.
With Guiterrez and Ichiro Seattle just needed one more OF to round out the group - insert Milton Bradley. Just two years removed from his best season as a pro, Bradley has struggled to find any plate consistency and recently emotional stability. I thought that maybe a return to the AL West is what Bradley needed after failing miserably in the Windy City on the north side last year, but just as Bradley so often does - he's disappointed nearly every fan in the city of Seattle as well.
Felix Hernandez was already the ace heading into the season, but add Cliff Lee and we're talking about a two-headed monster that almost guarantees 2 wins a week. An offseason injury landed Cliff Lee on the DL and early King Felix woes continued to bury Seattle before we hit the month of May.
Bedard and Wilson both started the season on the DL and Brandon League has yet to fill the void left by Brandon Morrow in the pen.
2. "Too many things have to go right for Seattle."
This statement has proved to be everything and more. When I said that there were too many uphill battles Seattle has to climb - none of the above, minus the Lee DL stint, had happened yet.
Here's what has gone wrong for Seattle:
Bradley asked for a leave of absence
Figgins is hitting .233 with only 11 extra base-hits
King Felix is 4 - 5 with an okay 3.61 ERA
pitching sensation Doug Fister has landed himself on the DL with arm fatigue
the back end of the rotation is a combined 0-10 with a 6.50 ERA
Erik Bedard still hasn't thrown a pitch
Aardsma is 0 - 4 with 4 blow saves and a 6.55 ERA
set-up man Mark Lowe may have season ending surgery
the offense is averaging about 4 runs a game
Kotchman is still hitting below the Mendoza line
Ken Griffey was caught napping in the clubhouse and decided to retire
This just doesn't look like a good 2010 was in the cards for Don Wakamatsu and the Mariners.
3. "Seattle won't stay healthy"
I kinda covered this in the last section, but I'll really break apart who has gotten injured position by position.
C - Kenji Johjima shocked Seattle when he decided to head back home to Japan to finish out his playing days and this left a big hole for the Mariners in a very important position. They started using a tandem in Rob Johnson and Adam Moore, but a left heal injury to Moore left him on the 15 day DL with a mid-June return. Moore was then replaced by Josh Bard - who then suffered a calf strain and has no time-table set for his return.
1B - The only injury this position has seen is a measly .197 batting average obtained by Casey Kotchman while playing the spot.
2B - Figgins has managed to remain healthy, but once again a .233 BA has Mariner fans wondering where he's gone wrong.
SS - Last year they acquired Jack Wilson from the Pirates and he's performed when on the field however, he does not have a return date for his DL stint either.
3B - Jose Lopez has also managed to stay healthy, but only a year removed from his best as a pro with 25 homers and 96 RBI - Lopez has followed suit with the rest of the team and is hitting .227 with 4 homers and 27 RBI.
OF - Bradley wasn't injured, but spent time on the in-active list when he found himself searching for help from the Seattle fan base.
SP - Here's where the fun begins: Doug Fister after mustering a 2.45 ERA and many 8 inning starts he landed on the 15 day DL with arm-fatigue and coud be back late next week. Cliff Lee missed the first month of action with an elbow injury that left Seattle staring from the cellar from the beginning. Erik Bedard has yet to throw a pitch, but eyes the all-star break as a return date. That is three starters for Seattle that have spent time on the shelf this season. Those who haven't? An overwhelmed King Felix, and Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell's combined 0-10 6.50 ERA stats.
RP - Mark Lowe could have season ending back surgery that basically writes off Seattle for a team that already had a subpar bullpen.
This just happens to be one of those snake bit seasons, if Seattle becomes sellers Lee, Kotchman, Lopez and Bradley could be trade bait for some decent prospects and dumping some salary as the 2011 Free Agency could be one of the best we've ever seen.
4. "There's too much hype for Seattle"
There was - there really was. The world series prediction on the radio show was proof enough. I understood the hype and saw the potential this team had, but the number one thing to overcome in the majors the past few season has been hype.
After Colorado's miracle run in 2007 everyone said this team was the next best thing in the NL they fell flat on their faces in '08 Hurdle was fired - insert Tracey after they had been written off and Colorado returned to the post-season.
After Tampa's even more miracle run in 2008 they were given all the hype to repeat their magic in 2009, but a tough schedule and a division with the Red Sox and resurgent Yankees team left the Rays in third place. Now that there wasn't as much pressure on this Rays team they are back on top and have the best record in baseball.
Last year the Giants had an awesome run at the wildcard that fell short, but analysts - and even I - had the Giants taking the division this year - the offense has struggled and injuries have plagued them.
I think there is something to say about hype and having to live up to expectations that can really haunt a team all season long. This year is pretty evident of that - Mariners, White Sox, Phillies.
It pays to be the underdog in the majors as of late - Padres, Braves, Mets, Blue Jays
5. "The Bullpen won't get it done and Seattle may have lost some of its talent"
The Bullpen hasn't got it done. They have suffered more losses than any other pen in baseball - 22 - and have almost as many losses out of the bullpen than the Rays do all season.
Let's also not forget the players that have left Seattle:
Carlos Silva won 5 games in 2 season for Seattle. This year he has an 8-1 record with a 2.83 ERA.
Adrian Beltre had some good seasons with Seattle, but never returned to his 2004 form when he led the entire National League with 45 home runs. This season in Boston he is hitting .335 with 9 homers and 44 RBI.
Russell Branyan had a career year in Seattle last year hitting 30 home runs for the first time. Although the .254 batting average doesn't say much in Cleveland, but it wasn't high in Seattle either he is there to hit home runs - he has 8 this season despite missing the first month of the season while on the DL.
Kenji Johjima wasn't the best catcher in the game, but much like Oakland's Kurt Suzuki he was very underrated and was a career .290 hitter between Japan and the US.
It may not look like much, but for a team struggling to hit and pitch right now these 4 players could have a huge impact on the rest of the club-house. Insert Beltre at DH, Silva back in the rotation, Branyan at first, and Johjima behind the plate. The 16 game under Mariners could be .500.
And my final quote regarding the Mariners, "Will they contend? Sure, but this division still belongs to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim."
It's only June, but Seattle better turn it on real quick, if they fall any further or don't make any progress - there may not be a bigger seller come July 31st.
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