CFB Championship Series: Week Eight (previous weeks linked inside)
Top 10 entering Week Nine:
1. Georgia, 7-0
2. Southern Cal, 6-0
3. Florida, 6-0
4. Oklahoma, 7-0
5. Ohio State, 7-1
6. West Virginia, 6-0
7. BYU, 7-0
8. Auburn, 6-1
9. Texas, 6-1
10. Clemson, 6-1
Key Games in Week Nine:
Auburn at West Virginia
In one of the big time nonconference games of 2008, the Tigers travel to Morgantown on a Thursday night to take on West Virginia. At this point in the season, both teams could very well be in the top 10 and this could be a big showdown that has BCS implications.
Auburn comes in with one loss on the resume, but having won a couple of games in a row. The big advantage Auburn will have coming in is new defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads. Rhoads has been at Pittsburgh the last nine years and knows West Virginia very well.
He derailed the Mountaineers chances of a BCS title last season shutting down Pat White and company in Morgantown, so he should bring some good knowledge of that offense to his defense at Auburn in this game.
West Virginia comes in undefeated and looking to stay that way before their late season stretch in the Big East. Pat White will no doubt be in the Heisman chase and a Thursday night primetime game against Auburn would be a great chance to make a statement.
The question for the Mountaineers will be their defense. They lost a lot of players from last season and they will have to get their defense straightened out before Auburn comes to town.
This should be a great game. Two spread offenses should make for a great game and it looks like this game will be decided by the defenses. Both offenses are capable of scoring enough to win, so it will be up to the defenses to make the plays for their team. Auburn's defense is clearly the better unit so if the Tigers hold Pat White in check, look for the Tigers to come out of Morgantown with a win.
Winner: Auburn
Georgia at LSU
The Bulldogs roll into Baton Rouge with an undefeated record and the number one ranking in the nation. LSU has been a little under the radar so far because of a couple of early season road losses, but they have gotten better each week and their QB continues to get better.
Last time Georgia traveled to Baton Rouge it was a classic game. I wouldn't expect much different this time around. Georgia's number one goal will be to establish the running game against the tough LSU front four on defense. If they are able to do that, then they will have a great shot at winning the game.
LSU on the other hand will have the same goal. Stop Moreno. If LSU is able to slow the Georgia run game, that's a great start. Their quarterback should have enough experience at this point to make some plays through the air with some talented receivers. The one question mark might be the young LSU secondary giving up big pass plays to Matt Stafford and Georgia.
This will be huge game for Georgia for obvious reasons. The national title might be on the line and going on the road in the SEC is never easy. If Georgia gets Moreno going against the front four then watch out because Georgia will win this game. Georgia can't afford to have any thoughts about next week's game against Florida.
If LSU is able to contain Moreno and force a couple of turnovers, and get plays from their quarterback down field, then LSU will have a great shot at the upset. I think LSU will continue to get better as the season goes on and Georgia will walk into a tough situation. I like LSU in this one to upset the national title picture.
Winner: LSU
Penn State at Ohio State
In what is always a great Big Ten game, Penn State travels to Columbus for a big showdown in conference. Ohio State is sitting in the top five in the country, and Penn State will be looking to win the Big Ten and make it back to the Rose Bowl.
Penn State comes in playing good football, but will need a great game on the road to upset the Buckeyes. Stopping Chris Wells is priority number one for the Nittany Lions, and they are capable of doing it. Maurice Evans will need a big game for Penn State, forcing some turnovers and getting some sacks on Todd Boeckman.
The other question will be can Penn State get their running game going against the Buckeyes. Those two things have to happen for a win.
Ohio State comes in looking to keep climbing the polls and get back in the national title picture. Chris Wells will be in the Heisman picture and could even be a front runner at this point in the season. If he gets going and the Buckeye defense gets after Penn State like they can, then the Buckeyes could win this by two touchdowns.
But Ohio State fans better remember one game last season: the game against Illinois. They were undefeated and Illinois came to town and upset them. The Buckeyes don't need a repeat performance.
Should be a great Big Ten game, especially with the potential things that will be on the line with Big Ten and national title hopes on the line. Penn State will play well, but not well enough to pull off the upset.
Winner: Ohio State
Other Key Games: Texas Tech at Kansas, Virginia Tech at Florida State
Top Heisman Candidates after Week Nine:
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
2. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
4. Pat White, RB, West Virginia
5. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
6. Joe McKnight, RB, Southern Cal
Top 10 after Week Nine:
1. Southern Cal 7-0 (beat Arizona, next: Washington)
2. Florida 7-0 (beat Kentucky, next: Georgia)
3. Oklahoma 8-0 (beat Kansas State, next: Nebraska)
4. Ohio State 8-1 (beat Penn State, next: off)
5. BYU 8-0 (beat UNLV, next: Colorado State)
6. Auburn 7-1 (beat West Virginia, next: Ole Miss)
7. Texas 7-1 (beat Oklahoma State, next: Texas Tech)
8. Georgia 7-1 (lost LSU, next : Florida)
9. Clemson 6-1 (off, next: Boston College)
10. Missouri 7-1 (beat Colorado, next: Baylor)
Others receiving votes: Kansas, Wisconsin, LSU, West Virginia, South Florida
Also, a reminder that at the end of the season, there will be an eight-team playoff that will be voted upon by you. You will be able to go to my blog and vote for the winner of each matchup, and the winners will move on each week.
Get more college football talk at my blog, Gridiron Guru.
comments (18) write a comment »
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about 1 month ago
So if #6 loses to #8 by 3 points, you think they drop (at least according to your "poll") 4+ spots? I realize voters are fickle, but this will be the one primetime game on that night and won't compete with any other games. If (and I say "if" because WVU at home is damn good, but on tv in primetime on a Thursday, we're damn near unbeatable) WVU loses this game, they may drop 3 spots. No more.
from about 1 month ago
Well, I never said it would be 3 points. If Auburn wins by 14 points what then?
I think if WVU loses AT HOME, then yea they will drop a few spots. Probably out of the top ten.
Keep in mind, it's really hard for me to predict what will happen when a team loses and where teams will move to. You just can't predict where a team will fall to. I'm just trying to drop them where I think they should be at that point, with that record.
about 1 month ago
I think the rankings look pretty good.
A lot better than Jimson's.
from about 1 month ago
What are you talking about???
from about 1 month ago
Kent,
That's a given. Jimson is a third grader posting about college football.
Thanks though.
from about 1 month ago
"Kent,
That's a given. Jimson is a third grader posting about college football.
Thanks though."
What are you talking about???
I am actually a SECOND-YEAR COLLEGE STUDENT... posting about College Football, lolz :)
from about 1 month ago
Jimson,
YOU HAVE STANFORD BEATING USC AGAIN!!!!
That was a FLUKE win. I can't stand USC...but I would bet on them to win the next 10,000 games against Stanford if they played again that night.
about 1 month ago
Justin, I get what you're saying. I am just going by what I think would be a reasonable win at Morgantown, since the line will probably be -3 WVU (only since they are the home team), and since our average loss the past 2 years is pretty small.
2006:
@UL 44-34 (-10)
USF 24-19 (-5)
2007:
@USF 21-13 (-8)
Pitt 13-9 (-4)
All in all, I like the series you're writing, and think it has good angles on the games.
from about 1 month ago
Chris,
Thanks. I completely get what you are saying, and I would be surprised if it isn't a close game. I just think at that point, you will have some one loss teams like Texas, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and you know that most of the time the team that has lost most recently seems to get put behind the other one loss teams.
about 1 month ago
Just because youre obsessed with the SEC doesnt mean that Auburns gonna beat WVU. WVUs gonna lay the smack down.
from about 1 month ago
Thomas,
I'm not obsessed with the SEC. There will be a lot of people picking Auburn to win that game, I guess they will all be obsessed with the SEC as well?
West Virginia loses A LOT on defense, and Paul Rhoads knows how to defend West Virginia. I think it's completely possible that West Virginia wins that game, but I think Auburn will.
from about 1 month ago
I think Auburn wins and I'm a pretty big WVU fan... Owen Schmitt will be missed more than people think...
about 1 month ago
Paul Rhodes did shut down WVU last year. Great job....he also got smoked by WVU the two years prior to that.
from about 1 month ago
Did I mention he's coaching with Auburn's defense, not Pittsburgh's?
If you can shut down West Virginia at all with the talent on Pittsburgh's defense, I'd say he will have more than enough talent to do it at Auburn.
No guarantees, but his experience against them, especially coming off a great scheme last time out, will be an advantage to Auburn in my opinion.
about 1 month ago
Good reading!
The WVU team Auburn will see in week 9 is remarkably different than the last Mountaineer team the Auburn DC saw. This year there is no Owen Schmidt, that's bad. This year HC Bill Stewart will throw downfield, that's very good. I was at the Pitt game on the 50...good view...Rich Rod would not stop it with the bubble screen. I was with several dozen alumni, who always know what to do (sarcasm) However, that night, we were on it; we were looking downfield. The Rodster didn't see it. Interim HC Bill Stewart put it up against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Result: 48-28.
Auburn will have to attack our soft secondary. Pat White's passing will loosen up his feet. I see a close W for West Virginia, but if you really press me, I'll say it's a toss up.
about 1 month ago
I don't know how Auburn will do against WVU, but I don't think LSU can handle Georgia.
about 1 month ago
LSU will be won and lost in the trenches...all ground and aerial assault will be rendered based on what the O and D lines come sup with....Best hope for UGA is a lot of screen pass/delayed hand off plays. Get that massive front behind the line then dump the ball past them either via Moreno on a delayed hand off from a play set up to look like a screen pass or via an actual screen pass in short ydg.
I think this kind of offensive scheme will work for UGA if LSU's D-line and blitzes prove too formidable. Those guys are all about attacking, so let them attack. Use their momentum to our advantage.
Other worry is this:
UGA may try running a defensive scheme like they did in Tennessee last year where they weren't too agressive and found them selves "catchin" the running backs coming at them. UGA's biggest mistake will be NOT blitzing at every oppurtunity. This young LSU QB will get rattled easily I think
In all likelihood though this game is completely up in the air. I can see it being a bloodbath for one team, or a shoot out, or a defensive spectacle where neither team scores more than 14.
Maybe it's time to consult the I-Ching:)
about 1 month ago
I think Auburn will be a great team this fall, but I have a sneaking suspicion that West Virginia will beat the Tigers.
The game has way more meaning to the Mountaineers, as it is the one great chance to prove that it can win without Rodriguez, and that Stewart was the right choice. Plus a lot of the Big East's credibility is still wrapped up in West Virginia winning big games, so it's a game for their entire conference too.
WVU's defense is also better than you give it credit for. It finished #7 in total defense and #8 in scoring defense last season, and DC Jeff Casteel decided to stay in Morgantown. They did lose a lot of starters, but the everyone there knows the 3-3-5 well and it's one of the best schemes for defending the Franklin-style spread.
I know the whole deal about Rhoads being at Pitt last year, but it's his first year on the Plains. I don't know if everything will be running as well in game #8 at Auburn as they did for Pittsburgh with many years in the scheme already.
West Virginia will want this one a lot more, and I probably give them the edge provided Pat White doesn't get hurt. Plus, the combination of Casteel and Rhoads means it will probably be a lot lower scoring than most think, and home teams generally have the edge in close games.
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