NBA Free Agency: 25 Bold Predictions for the Summer of 2010

With the Summer of 2010 shaping up to be the wildest summer in NBA history, it's time to make sense of some of the madness.

No, LeBron James probably doesn't know which team he's choosing yet, no matter how many times he appears on Larry King. And yes, Mikhail Prokhorov really adds a dubious element to the whole free agent bonanza that will almost certainly lead to stories very much not-suitable-for-work.

But, beyond that, we know only a few sure things. First, we know we're dealing with the NBA's second-best free agent class of the past 20 years. Second, we know that the NBA still has made zero progress on negotiating a new CBA with its players, leaving a lockout as a very real possibility for the 2011 season.

So, how will the Summer of 2010 play out? Take a look at these 25 predictions of what will happen to some of the biggest names in the NBA this summer.

Chris Bosh Will Sign With the Washington Wizards

Let's start off with a bang, shall we? Having landed the rights to draft John Wall by winning the No. 1 pick in the lottery, the Wizards suddenly became a much more attractive destination for free agents this summer. Chris Bosh will be the biggest name to prove that.

According to ESPN's Chris Sheridan, Bosh has a young daughter in the D.C. area, which makes the Wizards all the more attractive.

Still, the true lure of the Wizards will be the backcourt duo of Wall and Gilbert Arenas, who's due to come off his year-long suspension. Arenas, now two years removed from surgery, should be back in as much of his athletic prime as he's ever going to be; paired with a playmaker like Wall, Bosh will have two dynamic guards to carry him through rough patches.

The Wizards could trade one of Andray Blatche or Javale McGee and the No. 5 pick in a sign-and-trade for Bosh, assuming the Raptors (and Bosh) will demand some compensation in return.

Rudy Gay Will Be Offered a Max Contract…And the Grizzlies Will Match

Rudy Gay's career statistics, through four years: 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 three-point FGs, 1.3 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game.

According to Sports Illustrated, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley told local fans that the Grizzlies will match any offer on Gay, who is a restricted free agent this coming summer. The Grizzlies GM Lionel Hollins said, "We'll do what we need to do, while being rational, to sign Rudy."

One's statement has verrrry different undertones than the other. Gay will flirt with other teams this summer (the Clippers immediately come to mind), and Heisley and Hollins will pray that they don't offer him a max deal.

Still, Heisley cuts the checks, and when push comes to shove, it sounds like Heisley's ready to go all-in with a max deal for Gay if he has to.

Dirk Nowitzki Will Give Mark Cuban Heart Palpitations

Shortly after the Dallas Mavericks, the No. 2 seed in the West, flamed out against the No. 7 seed San Antonio Spurs in the 2010 playoffs, Dirk Nowitzki made some comments that sounded alarms back in Dallas.

"I don't know, this is all pretty fresh," Nowitzki said during his exit interview. "I just have to keep my options open at this point, see what's going on. I have to get over this disappointment for awhile. I'll probably drown my sorrows for a bit and then I'll start thinking about stuff like that in a week or two. As of now, I just want to keep my options, see what happens."

Now, the Mavericks expect Nowitzki to opt out of his contract, possibly to test the free agent waters.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban doesn't sound too concerned…yet. In fact, he alluded to the possibility of Dirk signing for less money—"Dirk told me that if he can help the team get better, he would sign a different deal."

Still, when Nowitzki doesn't re-sign with the Mavericks immediately, Cuban will start to feel the pressure build. When he hears that he's being wined-and-dined by other teams, Cuban's blood pressure should really start to rise.

Nowitzki will eventually re-sign with the Mavericks, potentially even taking a salary cut to help the team out. But he won't re-sign before causing Cuban a few night terrors.

The 76ers Will Trade Andre Iguodala and Draft Evan Turner

Drafting Evan Turner may seem like the completely obvious move to you and I, but when you're working with the Sixers' front office, you've got to be willing to throw all logic out the window right away.

Still, all signs point to the Sixers actually following through on the no-duh moment and drafting Turner. (See: Doug Collins' comments about moving Andre Iguodala to the three spot and Thaddeus Young to the four. You don't do that without a strong starting two.

That's all fine and dandy, but if the Sixers are serious about getting back in contention sooner rather than later, they'll take advantage of Andre Iguodala's tradeability now. If they don't, and the new CBA really does reduce max contracts by even a quarter, Iguodala could suddenly be paid more than max money. That's not a guy you trade for.

The Sixers shopped Iguodala hard at the deadline, most notably in potential deals for Amar'e Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady. If the Sixers manage to shed Iggy's contract, they'll add his $13 million cap figure to the $23 million already freed up by Samuel Dalembert, Jason Kapono, and Willie Green's expiring contracts.

Shaquille O'Neal Isn't Done Just Yet

While the Big Shaqtus fell short on his mission to "win a ring for the King," it's near-impossible to imagine Shaquille O'Neal ending his NBA career with a second-round playoff punking to a heavy underdog.

Despite saying in 2008 that he'd retire after playing out the remainder of his current contract, Shaq has now calculated that he has "3.7 years left" in his career after missing 360 games over the course of his playing days.

Shaq says he'll consider a return to the Cavs, but let's be honest, he's only coming back if LeBron returns as well. Otherwise, he'll continue on his wayward journey as basketball's largest mercenary, willing to sign for cheap on championship contenders for a chance to win his fifth ring.

Dare I say, could his best fit be a return to Miami, with Shaq replacing Jermaine O'Neal?

Hedo Turkoglu Will Be Traded

"Honestly, I do not want to go back to Toronto. My lawyers talked to Mr. [Bryan] Colangelo and I hope that they will come up with a solution soon." — Hedo Turkoglu, in an interview with a Turkish television station recently.

Well, then. With four years and nearly $44 million left on his deal, Turkoglu's not exactly in high demand, but the Raptors have no reason to keep petulance around their team if they're rebuilding in the post-Chris Bosh era.

Lucky for the Raptors, other GMs have enough other equally bad contracts that the Raptors can find a suitor if they're committed to moving Turkoglu. The Pistons have been trying to trade Rip Hamilton just about forever; the Sixers have Elton Brand, Iguodala, and Samuel Dalembert's expiring contract on the market; the Pacers could offer up Troy Murphy…the list goes on and on.

What if the Magic and Raptors essentially decide on a Summer 2009 un-do, basing a trade around Turkoglu and Vince Carter? Regardless of who ends up pulling the trigger, Turkoglu will not be in a Raptors uniform on the opening night of the 2010-11 season.

So Will Mo Williams

According to Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (the beat-man on all things LeBron), the Cavaliers have already begun assessing Mo Williams' trade value as they head into the Summer of LeBron.

Williams has three years and $26 million left on his contract, but his salary actually decreases after the 2010-11 season, and he's got a player option in his final season. He earned an All-Star berth in his first season in Cleveland, and averaged 16.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game in his two years as a Cavalier.

Still, Williams has notably shrunk from the spotlight during the playoffs—he shot only 40.9 percent from the field and 21.1 percent from downtown in the six-game loss to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semi-finals.

Seeing as the Cavs have already fired their coach and GM in a desperate attempt to persuade LeBron James to stay, they've shown that they'll stop at nothing. The Cavs trading Williams will be yet another one of those calculated risks aimed at retaining LeBron, and demonstrating a commitment to fielding a championship contender.

The Oklahoma City Thunder Will Move Into the Lottery

Early on in the draft process, the Oklahoma City Thunder were rumored to be enamored with Kentucky freshman Daniel Orton, despite Orton only averaging three points and three rebounds a game in limited minutes this past season.

As the Lakers proved in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the Thunder desperately need bangers down low more than anything else. Serge Ibaka provides them a start, as an athletic 7-footer that runs the floor and blocks shots well, but Nick Collison had no chance against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

The Thunder hold four draft picks in the upcoming 2010 draft (two in the first round, two in the second round). Despite Chad Ford's reports that a few teams have privately expressed concerns about Orton's left knee—enough to drop him on their draft boards—the Thunder aren't the type to wait around and hope their guy falls to them at No. 21.

Expect the Thunder to trade up to the lottery to grab Orton before it's too late, pairing their No. 21 pick with one of their second rounders.

Patrick Patterson Will Be the Last Kentucky Wildcat Drafted

Patrick Patterson opted to remove himself from the NBA draft last season and return to Kentucky for a year of tutelage under new coach John Calipari, in hopes of raising his draft stock. Here's guessing he didn't expect that all four of his freshman phenom teammates would leap him in the draft.

Seeing as he's not the consensus No. 1 pick like John Wall, it's safe to say Wall's going ahead of him. Same with DeMarcus Cousins, a guy who won't fall below No. 5 or 6.

That leaves Eric Bledsoe, the PG who played SG beside Wall this past season, and Orton, the center who averaged three points and three rebounds per game, for Patterson to compete with.

Assuming the Thunder go through with my predicted draft pick trade, they'll move up into the late lottery to draft Orton, in the 11-14 range. With only Bledsoe and Patterson left, here's guessing that Bledsoe goes No. 18 to the Heat (in desperate need of a PG that isn't Mario Chalmers), and Patterson slips into the early-20s.

One of the Big Three (Bosh/Bron/Wade) Will Sign for Less

This prediction makes one large leap of faith: At least one of these three players care more about winning championships than earning money.

While LeBron once said he cared more about championships than a max contract, we'll see what happens when the money starts flying this summer. Still, if one of those three were truly intent on winning a championship, they would sign at a discounted rate to allow their team more flexibility in acquiring other free agents.

Sports Illustrated's Chris Ballard suggests LeBron should actually sign for the league minimum. I can't advocate for a player of LeBron/D-Wade/Bosh's caliber to go that far, but Ballard's right in the sense that it makes the most financial sense in terms of championship potential.

Here's guessing that Wade, staring his hefty T-Mobile endorsement contract down, signs for less in hopes of bringing in two high-caliber free agent prizes this summer.

Xavier Henry Will Be a Top-10 Draft Pick

This may not have been such a bold prediction going into the 2009-10 season, but Henry couldn't maintain his preseason momentum in scouts' eyes after a less-than-incredible freshman season at Kansas. Henry can be a prolific scorer in the league, but scouts worry about whether Henry can do anything more other than that.

Still, Henry's the type of guy that will shine at workouts in the coming weeks. He showed off NBA three-point range throughout his Jayhawk days, and he's got the body (6'7", 220 lbs) to step in right away, and make an impact on a team.

Henry could be plugged in as a three in the NBA, but he's best suited for playing the two and drilling shots from the wing. At No. 9, if Greg Monroe's off the board already, the Jazz could establish a backcourt dynasty with Williams and Henry running the show for the next decade. The Warriors, Clippers, and Pacers also could have interest in Henry.

Ray Allen Will Leave Boston

This prediction would have sounded absolutely nuts after Game Two of the 2010 NBA Finals, but oh, how perception shifts with one game. Fresh off an 0-for-13 performance in Game Three, the Celtics will need a quick turnaround from Allen to stay relevant against the Lakers.

If the Celtics go on to lose to the Lakers (especially if it happens in quick and/or embarrassing fashion), they're that much more likely to detonate after the season. Coach Doc Rivers has been rumored to want to take a year off coaching, with his son finishing high school next year, and without Rivers, the Celtics' engine will stop chugging as efficiently.

Allen, as an unrestricted free agent, has the first chance to jump off the sinking boat before it's too late. Assuming he's got a few more Game Two (32 points, 8-of-11 from three) games left in him, he'd be a valuable addition for a team next season.

Look for Allen to sign a two or three year deal in the $6-8 million a year range.

The Warriors and T-Wolves Will Swap Top-10 Picks

The Timberwolves and Warriors have discussed a trade involving sending Anthony Randolph to Minnesota. Broussard reported that the T-Wolves have "strong" interest in Randolph, while the Warriors are interested in moving up in the draft.

Seeing as the Wizards won't give up John Wall, the Sixers look to be ramming Elton Brand back down the throats of any trade partner that wants the No. 2 pick, and the Nets' GM just said N.J. likely won't trade the No. 3…the No. 4 pick is the best the Warriors could hope for.

The T-Wolves should be able to recover enough from their "We-Don't-Get-Evan-Turner?" shellshock to pull the trigger on a trade that could land them Randolph, one of the NBA's youngest and most explosive athletes. By trading down to No. 6, they'll still be able to pick up a SF like Al-Farouq Aminu to bolster their wing play.

The Wolves will end up trading their No. 4 and No. 23 picks for the Warriors' No. 6 and Anthony Randolph.

Darko Milicic Will Spurn Europe for the T-Wolves And Regret It Instantly

Earlier this season, Darko Milicic had one foot out the door for Europe, saying that his career had taken an unexpected turn, and, "I'm 24, I'm still young. So I can still be happy overseas."

Now, Darko's been openly flirting with the idea of staying Minnesota after the T-Wolves traded for him in February and actually handed him legitimate playing time. Milicic averaged career highs in minutes played, points, assists, and steals per game with the Timberwolves in 24 games this past season, giving his once-thought-a-bust career new life.

In turn, Milicic has now gone on record to say that he'll stay with the Timberwolves...if he's guaranteed to start and play 30-35 minutes a night. To that, Wolves coach Kurt Rambis replied, "Players earn their time. Players know it, too. The players know who's playing well and who deserves to be on the floor. They see it in practice."

Despite Rambis’ warning, Milicic will re-sign with the Wolves assuming that he'll walk into a starting job by doing so. The first time Rambis benches Milicic, his sense of entitlement will be shattered, and he'll immediately wonder why he didn't just go back to Europe after all.

David Kahn Won't Take A Point Guard in the First Round

This might be the boldest prediction yet.

Despite defying all sense of reason and logic by taking three consecutive point guards in the first 20 picks last season, I'm predicting that Minnesota GM David Kahn has learned his lesson. With Flynn on the roster and Rubio percolating in Europe, the Timberwolves have absolutely no need for another point guard; if you thought Kevin Love's Twitter was outraged last year, see what another PG would cause...

As of now, the Timberwolves have three picks in the first round (Nos. 4, 16, and 23). That's three separate chances for Kahn to get frisky and pick Eric Bledsoe out of left field.

Instead, look for the Timberwolves to add some scoring wings and a prospect at center, in case the Darko Milicic experiment doesn't pan out.

Mike Brown Will Remain Jobless

This isn't necessarily an indictment of his ability as a coach, but Mike Brown will not be able to secure a coaching job for the 2010-11 season by opening night.

Instead, as teams are scrambling to hire new coaches (New Orleans, Chicago, Philadelphia, and New Jersey have all made moves already), Brown's name doesn't appear to have nearly the appeal that Tom Thibodeau's did two weeks ago.

Part of Brown's troubles this season will be the perception that he and LeBron weren't on the same page, as no franchise wants to hire a coach that alienates the team's superstar. Whether or not there's any truth to the LeBron-Brown discord, the storyline is already out and about in the public domain, and has largely been accepted as fact up until this point. (At the very least, it's way more believable than the Gloria James-Delonte West rumors.)

In reality, Brown isn't an awful coach. He's a fantastic coach on the defensive end, and should be considered for future jobs on this merit alone. Brown fell into the trap of allowing LeBron to take over an offense, without coaching the team through set plays, but with a talent as transcendent as LeBron, it's hard to blame him.

Still, the offensive breakdown that was on display in Games Five and Six against Boston will be incentive enough for NBA teams not to hire Brown as their next coach, especially with the free agency bonanza approaching.

Joe Johnson Will Sign With the Nets

When the Nets strike out on the Big Three of LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Bosh, rest assured that Mikhail Prokhorov will have a Plan B for their $26 million in cap space. If he's truly been paying attention, that Plan B should be Joe Johnson.

With the No. 3 pick in the draft, the Nets actually may have received a blessing in disguise. They can draft Derrick Favors, who will fit in the high post nicely alongside Brook Lopez, and leave Devin Harris at point guard (instead of trading him and drafting John Wall). After Terrence Williams' post All-Star explosion, the biggest need for the Nets is a proven fourth quarter scorer who can knock down some long-range jumpers.

If Prokhorov can sell Johnson on signing for less than a max contract to allow the Nets more financial flexibility towards building a championship-caliber team, all the power to him. Still, withAvery Johnson as his new coach, Prokhorov's already proven that he's intent on making a splash this summer, regardless of price.

Johnson should be his No. 1 target if 'Bron, Bosh, and Wade fall through, max contract or not.

Josh Childress Will Return to the Hawks from Greece

With Joe Johnson leaving for the Nets, the Hawks will suddenly have a void on the wing. While Jamal Crawford could slide in to the starting two role off the bench, the Hawks would desperately miss having a percolator on the bench to spark their reserves.

Lucky for them, Josh Childress is coming up on his final year of his three-year deal with Greek team Olympiakos. While Childress said that he was hypothetically leaning towards finishing out his contract, if Childress has a good agent, he'll be back in the NBA this summer.

Childress would return to the NBA as a restricted free agent for the Hawks, which would allow him to sign an one-year offer sheet or a longer extension. If Childress doesn't sign the extension, he'll be an unrestricted free agent next season, whether or not he returns from Greece.

As much as NBA scouts travel to Europe to scout players now, an NBA season provides 82 games worth of tapes to dissect. If Childress hopes to return to the NBA and sign a larger deal next summer, he'll need to play a season in the league now to demonstrate how much he's improved.

Childress will return to the Hawks, and will fit in brilliantly as Crawford's replacement as the team's sixth man.

Carlos Boozer Will Sign With Miami

With Amar'e Stoudemire clearly expressing his belief that he's deserving of a max contract, the Heat know exactly where they'll stand on that front.

Instead, once they miss out on Bosh, they'll turn their attention to a cheaper alternative to Stoudemire—one that actually might box a guy out and grab a few rebounds every once in a while.

The Utah Jazz, having signed Paul Millsap to a four-year, $36 million extension before last season, planned on moving on from the Boozer era before his mini-resurgence this past season. Needless to say, the Jazz will be actively praying that another team offers Boozer a contract offer he can't refuse.

Boozer has an off-season house in south Florida, which is all the more incentive to sign with the Heat. If he'd be willing to sign in the $11-13 million/year range when Stoudemire's demanding $16.8 next season, the Heat will gladly poach Boozer and put the other cap space to good use on the side.

Tim Donaghy Will Have More Supporters After the NBA Finals

This prediction will be hard to swallow, but after a foul-plagued first three games of the NBA Finals, the NBA has a P.R. nightmare on their hands with their officiating.

To make matters worse, Deadspin has invited scorned ref Tim Donaghy (he of the betting on NBA games scandal) to to share his thoughts on the officiating in the NBA Finals.

It's tough to separate what's real from what's a construct of Donaghy's mind, but Donaghy hasn't been one to shy away from insinuating that refs have underlying motives in calling/not calling certain fouls. (Loved this from Game Two: "Officials will huddle and discuss that Kobe has five fouls and that his next one will send him out of the game.")

It's no secret that NBA officiating isn't perfect. (Then again, what officials get 100 percent of their calls right?) Still, Donaghy is only going to add fuel to the NBA conspiracy theorists' fire with his commentary on the Finals refereeing.

And the scariest part of all? It's becoming that much harder to call him a complete lunatic.

Donald Sterling Will Prevent the Clippers From Landing a Huge Name

There's no nice way to say this: Clippers owner Donald Sterling is a racist scumbag. (He makes Rush Limbaugh look like Martin Luther King, Jr., as ESPN's Jemele Hill says.)

Sterling agreed to pay nearly $3 million to settle a housing discrimination suit in Southern California that alleged that Sterling "wanted tenants that fit his image." (Read: No blacks or Latinos.) Google "Donald Sterling racist" for a few choice quotes from the Clippers owner about how "the blacks in [his] building smell," or how the Mexicans "just sit around and smoke and drink all day."

Can you imagine tying your financial future to this man, especially if you're a non-white player? Seeing as 77 percent of the players in the League are African-American, that doesn't leave many other options.

Unless David Geffen (co-founder of Dreamworks Pictures) can convince Sterling to sell a majority ownership of the team, no major free agents will want to associate themselves with a man of Sterling's character, no matter how much money he offers. They'll re-sign Drew Gooden, but that will be their only major move this summer.

One Free Agent Will Cheat on His Wife/GF With Mikhail Prokhorov's Models

Mikhail Prokhorov, the Nets' new owner, is a Russian playboy billionaire with a bit of a dark history. (So he may have been involved in a call-girl scandal…)

While David Stern would blow a gasket if he found out Prokhorov arranged a similar deal for free agents he's wooing for the Nets this summer, he'll have a tough time proving anything unless one of those free agents goes for the Ben Roethlisberger approach.

Prokhorov has yachts and private jets galore at his disposal. A Russian billionaire couldn't take 20 of his closest model friends, a free agent, and that player's agent, and go off for a day-cruise? Uh huh.

Here's guessing at least one NBA free agent has a special type of conquest this summer, courtesy of Mr. Prokhorov.

David Lee Will Stay With The Knicks

The Knicks will learn this the hard way this summer: Bundles of cap space aren't the only thing that free agents want from their prospective new teams. LeBron, D-Wade, and Bosh have all gone on record to say that winning a championship is most important to them, and they'll be searching for teams that will help them win one (or multiple) titles.

The Knicks, despite having nearly $40 million in cap space (if they don't exercise their options on Bill Walker, Sergio Rodriguez, and J.R. Giddens, that is), will not be able to lure one of the Summer of 2010's Big Three to N.Y. this summer.

When Joe Johnson, Amar'e Stoudemire, and some of the other second-tier free agents begin swooping in to collect their piece of the free agent pie, the Knicks will have no other options but to re-sign David Lee.

Lee won't command a max deal like Stoudemire or Johnson, but he'll put up equally impressive numbers in Mike D'Antoni's fast-paced system. Lee and D'Antoni have brought out the best in each other since D'Antoni left Phoenix for New York, and the Knicks will recognize Lee's value to the team before letting him sign elsewhere for nothing in return.

Amar'e Stoudemire Won't Get a Max Contract

Stoudemire made it clear on Wednesday that the Phoenix Suns should expect him to opt out of his contract this summer. Stoudemire also made it clear that he very much expects a maximum-level contract this summer.

Problem is: Stoudemire isn't worth a max contract. And with CBA uncertainty and a lockout looming in 2011, NBA owners actually have a chance to demonstrate some financial frugality this summer.

If Phoenix offers him a six-year max deal, they'll be paying him $27.7 million dollars in his final season, when he's going on 34. This, for a player who's already had microfracture surgery on his right knee. Suns owner Robert Sarver isn't stupid—he'll let someone else offer Stoudemire the 5-year, $100 million deal before locking his franchise into a contract that could cripple the team for the next half-decade. (See: Brand, Elton.)

Assuming some of these other predictions play out (most notably, Boozer to Miami and Bosh to Washington), Stoudemire's realistic options will have all dried up. New Jersey won't need a PF with Favors, the Clippers have Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman in their frontcourt, and most teams in the lottery have their shot at drafting a big man.

Here's saying despite Stoudemire's very vocal opinion, NBA owners will collectively exercise restraint and not hand him a max contract this summer.

LeBron James Will Re-Sign With the Cleveland Cavaliers

After all the wooing, all the suitors, all the fancy champagne, private jet rides, and expensive steak dinners, LeBron James will do the only thing he's ever done: Stay in Cleveland.

LeBron will hear it all this summer. God only knows what Mikhail Prokhorov will throw at him on July 1. LeBron also never went through this process in college, so there's a solid chance he simply wants his ego stroked by as many important people in as short of a time as possible. (As if the Larry King interview during the NBA Finals wasn't enough.)

In the end, LeBron will recognize that the Cavs won the most regular season games for two years running for a reason. The team has some flaws, undoubtedly, but with a new coach (Tom Izzo?), some younger legs at center (sorry, Shaq), and an always-looking-to-appease-LeBron owner in Dan Gilbert, LeBron will eventually realize that for him, there really is no place like home.

But he's not going to commit himself to Cleveland forever. He'll sign a three-year deal, to guarantee himself Bird rights for the Summer of 2013…but if Cleveland hasn't won (at least) one NBA championship by then, LeBron will be LeGone.