The Oakland Raiders are Still Not Good, and Other Brilliant Observations

It's almost that time again.

The draft picks are in and the free agents are signed. In six weeks, camps will open for the 2010 season. So as the unemployed Terrell Owens might say, "Get your popcorn ready!"

Here are eight observations on the coming season, in a sequel to last year's almost critically acclaimed "The Raiders are Not Good and Other Brilliant Observations".

The Oakland Raiders are Still Not Good

Last year, Raider fans gave me some heat when I called the current Raiders team "historically bad".

By that, I meant that the Raiders were the first team in the history of the 16 game schedule to lose at least two-thirds of their games five years in a row.

Raiders fans did not understand my distinction or just didn't want to. They were angry. They were also a bit defensive regarding the Raiders' draft, which was panned by most because of the picks of Darius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell in the first two rounds.

The bad news is that the Raiders extended their streak of futility to seven seasons by putting together another 5-11 year.

The good news is that the Raiders appear to have put together a very solid off season, and they did a little addition by subtraction when they dropped the colossal bust JaMarcus Russell.

Either Jason Campbell or Bruce Gradkowski should be a significant upgrade over Russell, and I look for some of that young talent on the roster to finally bear fruit.

I expect to have to change the theme of my slideshow next year. Look for eight wins from the Raiders.

The Saints Were Lucky Last Year

Look, I'm a Falcons fan. Falcons fans spend a lot of time talking about their division rivals in the offseason, and one of the central topics of conversation this offseason has been that the Saints got lucky last year.

They got the lucky bounce in this game, or that bad call in that other game—you know the kind of stuff I am talking about.

Frankly, those discussions kind of embarrass me as a Falcons fan. The Saints were a phenomenal team last year, and didn't get any more luck than any other great team.

Luck is part of the game. Every team that achieves great things has some luck along the way. Maybe it comes in the form of team health, or maybe it comes in the form of a bounce.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were lucky that Jackie Smith dropped that ball in Super Bowl XIII. The 1998 Falcons were lucky that Gary Anderson picked the most inopportune time to miss a field goal, and the 2001 Patriots were lucky that the officials made up a new rule in the middle of the game and made a call that was never made before that game and has never been made since.

Luck is part of the game.

Besides, the Saints had tons of injuries last year. They were signing defensive backs off of the street corners and plugging them directly into the game. They overcame it.

Scoreboard: The Saints have it for 2009. Let's move on.

Bryant Johnson is the Worst Starting Wide Reciever of All Time

Take this slide title with a grain of salt, as Bryant Johnson has started 67 games as an NFL wide receiver.

Somebody thinks he can play.

Being a Falcons fan and a fierce critic of Michael Jenkins, I set out on a mission to prove that Michael Jenkins had started more games at WR in the NFL without achieving a 100-yard receiving game than any other player in NFL history.

Johnson got in the way of my hypothesis, as he has now started 12 more games than Jenkins. As far as I can tell, these are the only two players to ever start more than 50 games as a WR in the NFL without breaking 100 yards at least once.

Neither one of them has come close. Johnson's career-high is 87 yards in a game and Jenkins' is 83.

My prediction for 2010: One of these guys will break their streak and the other one will finally lose their starting job.

Terrell Owens' Career is Likely Over

Ah Terrell, we hardly knew ya.

Terrell Owens has never been able to avoid controversy, regardless of where he has been. In the prime of his career, his dramas were often self-inflicted. Later in his career, the media seized every opportunity to create a controversy around him.

That has never been more clear to me than last year, when, after a particularly ugly loss by the Bills, the media asked Terrell question after question about the play-calling. Terrell calmly explained that it was simply his job to run the plays that were called, but they really didn't seem satisfied with that answer.

They wanted him to say something to get himself into trouble.

Whether or not Terrell deserves the reputation or not, he now comes with the image of a narcissistic clubhouse cancer, and teams don't really want to take on.

Teams that are contenders are worried that Terrell Owens will ruin their chemistry. Teams that are not contenders do not see the point in bringing in a 36-year-old receiver.

I believe Terrell Owens can still play football, and extremely well. But sometimes it's about more than that. I am afraid Terrell Owens has played his last down in the NFL.

It's Official, Rex Ryan is a Defensive Genius

In Rex Ryan's first season as the Jets' head coach, the Jets traded away all but three draft picks and used every pick they had on offensive players.

The result? Well, their offense was horrible, but their defense led the league in scoring and total defense.

This was an amazing accomplishment, because the same unit had finished 18th in total defense and 16th in scoring defense in 2008.

Incredibly, the Jets held six of their opponents to less than 200 yards of total offense.

I do not think that Rex Ryan is a great head coach, but his reputation as a defensive mastermind is well deserved. If you have a great defense, than you have a chance.

It's up to Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense to see if the Jets can take that next step in 2010.

NFL Fans and Media Like Coaches With Guts

As long as it works.

Against the Colts last year, Bill Belichick made a gutsy call to go for a first down on 4th-and-2 at his own 28 with the Patriots desperately hanging on to six-point lead in the closing minutes.

Before Bill made the call, Peyton Manning marched the Colts down the field on two consecutive possessions for touchdowns. At that point in the game, he was on fire.

You had to figure that if the Patriots punted, Manning had odds of better than 50 percent of doing it again.

Now, ask yourself: Does Tom Brady and the Patriots have a better than 50 percent chance of picking up a 4th-and-2? I think so.

So, it's easy math. Even without computing the Colts chances of scoring if the Patriots failed to get the first down.

Which they did.

And how Bill got the criticism. From the fans. From the media. From everybody.

It was the right call, and if the Patriots had gotten a better spot, there never would have been a word of criticism.

But NFL fans and media only like a coach with guts when it pays off.

Andy Reid Had Better be Right about Kevin Kolb

The universal opinion of Kevin Kolb going into last season was that the guy was a scrub. It had been a wasted draft pick by the Eagles.

Then, Donovan McNabb got hurt, and Kevin Kolb threw for a ton of garbage-time yards in a blowout loss against the Saints.

The next week, Kolb lit up the Kansas City Chiefs, the same way just about every QB in the league did.

Based on those two games, Philly has decided that Kolb is the guy, and they have shipped McNabb off to Washington, a division rival.

The Philadelphia fans and media are not forgiving, so the Eagles better be right about this. If Kolb does not make the Philly faithful forget about Donovan, Andy Reid could find himself on the hot seat in a hurry.

I'm not going to predict an outcome in Philly. But when I think of Kevin Kolb, the name Rob Johnson comes to mind.

These are the Glory Days for Quarterbacking

How many of the top-15 quarterbacks in career passer rating do you think were active in 2009?

The stunning answer is 13. Joe Montana and Steve Young are the only QBs in the top 15 in passer rating who are retired.

There are different arguments that can be made for the reasons that today's quarterbacks are so proficient. Some will say that it is the sophisticated offenses, the rules limiting what a defense can do, or the wide receiver talent.

All of these factors contribute to the high level of QB play we see in today's game.

A more simple explanation is that there are just a remarkable number of extremely dedicated and talented quarterbacks in the NFL right now.

If you closely watch guys like Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo, you get the sense that you are watching guys that would have been great, maybe even dominant, in any era.

Those guys aren't even considered in the top three by most people—that would be Manning, Brady, and Brees.

If you are a fan of quarterbacking, now is a great time to watch NFL football.

I hope you enjoyed the slideshow, and enjoy the 2010 season.