NBA Draft: What We Expect and What We'll Actually Get from Top Prospects

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NBA Draft: What We Expect and What We'll Actually Get from Top Prospects

Every year, the crop of players in the NBA Draft can be lumped into three basic categories.

There's the "can't miss, must have" group. Guys like LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, to name a few.

But there are busts in this group too; believe it or not, even the experts get one wrong every now and then. Think Michael Olowokandi, Sam Bowie, Derrick Coleman, Adam Morrison, or Hasheem Thabeet.

(Whoops, did I say Thabeet already? Well, give it a year or two.)

Then there's the "big upside, but maybe not quite ready" group. Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Stephen Curry, Danny Granger, Amar'e Stoudemire, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson spring to mind.

On the flip side, don't forget about the Kwame Browns, Rafael Araujos, and Patrick O'Bryants of the world.

Finally, there's the "take a flyer and see what the hell happens" group. It's a hit-or-miss category—maybe you get a Manu Ginobili, Tayshaun Prince, or Rajon Rondo, or maybe you get a Kirk Haston, Frank Williams, or Brian Cook.

This year is no different.

We've got John Wall and Evan Turner headlining the first group, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Xavier Henry in the second, and Ed Davis, Paul George, and Willie Warren in the third (just to name a few).

So what are fair expectations for these guys?

Should we be thinking John Wall is going to come in and immediately be a top-five point guard?

Should we believe that Favors will be a double-double machine and perennial All-Star five years from now?

Should we really have faith in Ed Davis if our team is taking him early in the lottery?

Let's take a look at 10 players (a small sample size from each of the three groups) and examine our expectations for them, and whether or not we should curtail our presumptions.

Starting with the consensus No. 1...

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