I have a gambling problem, not a gambling addiction (other than one bad incident that I deserved, I’ve been fairly frugal with my betting habits).
No, my problem is that I’m no good at gambling. I lose a lot of money.
I seem to have terrible patterns at predicting who will win and even worse at identifying the trap games. While some people make it big and others lose money slowly, I lose money quickly. When it goes down, it goes DOWN.
My last big gambling endeavor (the NBA playoffs) left me down a nice two Gs, because I sold my soul and kept on betting Lakers in the Finals, one of the worst decisions I’ve ever made.
In other words, I’m a sportsbook’s best friend. Which is why you should take this gambling analysis column with a very tiny grain of salt.
My gambling habits will probably end me up in prison one day, but there’s no reason for me not to share my foresight with all of you, right?
Cal opened up as seven-point favorites against Michigan State. That’s approximately the same line that Cal opened up with against Tennessee last year, which probably means that they put Michigan State on a similar level as us.
I described in gruesome detail last year how much new beach property sportsbooks opened up last season as the gambling nutbags of the world continued to pour their money into Tedford mania.
In every game the Bears played after Oregon, Cal did not cover the spread. For anyone who remembers the numbers, we were very public in every game we played.
Arguably, the factors like last year’s collapse will make people weary to bet heavy on the Golden Bears this fall. But gamblers tend to have short memories.
However, there is the advantage that Michigan State is a state school, and state schools are filled with gullible gamblers. The action could definitely split both ways.
Our supposed win total (eight is what Vegas has now) seems about even keel too. This sounds about right, given that the overall talent of our squad factored into the relative weakness of the Pac-10 this year should be enough to get us right back to where we belong (at that eight-win level), and the few tight games we played on the schedule will decide where we go.
Only the Condoms (10.5 and the highest total on the board), Arizona State (8.5) and Oregon (8) are at or above that level in the Pac-10, but I’m not sure what to make of those last two win totals, considering the preliminary lines Vegas has posted (more on that below).
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