Zack Greinke and the Top 20 Worst Cy Young Follow Up Seasons
By (Senior Analyst) on June 4, 2010
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With his latest loss on Thursday, the Kansas City Royals' Zack Greinke has fallen to 1-7 on the season with a 3.60 ERA.
Greinke, of course, is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, having gone 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts a year ago.
So, is Greinke having the worst follow-up to a Cy Young Award season in baseball history?
Maybe, but at this point, he isn't close.
One of the major sub-plots of Greinke's season has been the loss of his catcher from his amazing 2009 season. As we take a look at these Top 20 Worst Cy Young Follow Up Seasons, we'll also take a look at the catchers involved to determine whether a catcher change was a factor each time.
20. Orel Hershiser - 1989 Los Angeles Dodgers
Technically doesn't belong here but must be included for one simple reason:
In 1989, Orel Hershiser led the National League in losses and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting!
Hershiser was lights out in 1988, leading the AL with 23 wins, 15 complete games and eight shutouts. He also had a 2.26 ERA (149 ERA+) and finished the season on a 59-inning scoreless streak.
The following year, Hershiser had strikingly similar numbers in some respects: he led the league in innings and batters faced both years, had a 149 ERA+ and 178 strikeouts both years-but in 1989 Hershiser went 15-15 and led the NL in losses.
No worries-that 149 ERA+ also led the league, and the Cy Young voters recognized it.
19. Bob Turley - 1959 New York Yankees
In 1958, Turley led the AL with 21 wins, a .750 winning percentage, 19 complete games and, curiously, 128 bases on balls. He won the AL Cy Young and finished second in the AL MVP voting.
The following year, he went 8-11 with a 4.32 ERA and would never win 10 games in a season for the rest of his career.
Catcher Factor: Would have been an issue if it would have been an issue. Yogi Berra handled most of Turley's innings both years.
18. LaMarr Hoyt - 1984 Chicago White Sox
LaMarr Hoyt was 28 years old and in his fifth year in the league in 1983 when he led the AL in wins for the second year in a row with 24 and also led the AL in WHIP and K:BB ratio.
His ERA, however, was not great-3.66 for an ERA+ of 115, and he led the league in home runs per nine innings.
I bring this up because, in 1984, Hoyt's ERA only dropped to 4.47, ERA+ of 93, but he had a completely different season, leading the AL in losses and allowed over a hit per inning pitched and, once again, in home runs per nine innings pitched.
Catcher Factor: Nothin' to Pudge about. Carlton Fisk was Hoyt's catcher both years.
17. Dennis Eckersley - 1993 Oakland Athletics
In 1992, Eckersley went 7-1 with a league-leading 51 saves and a 1.91 ERA (197 ERA+). Those numbers propelled Eck to the AL Cy Young and the AL MVP.
The following season, Dennis became Eck the Wreck, going 2-4 with a 4.16 ERA (98 ERA+) and a merely solid 36 saves.
Catcher Factor: Not so much. Went from Terry Steinbach and Jamie Quirk in 1992 to Steinbach and Scott Hemond in 1993.
16. Bob Welch - 1991 Oakland Athletics
Bob Welch blew the world away with a shocking 27 wins and .818 winning percentage, plus a 2.95 ERA, in 1990, for which reason he won the AL Cy Young award over a far more deserving Roger Clemens.
In 1991, Welch thudded back down to earth, going 12-13 with a 4.58 ERA.
Catcher Factor: Elephant in the Living Room. In 1990, the incredibly under-appreciated Ron Hassey caught all but three of Welch's innings. In 1991, Hassey was gone, and Terry Steinbach and Jamie Quirk shared the catcher duties for Welch.
15. Mike Cuellar - 1970 Baltimore Orioles
Mike Cuellar's 1971 season was really a testament to how good that Baltimore Orioles team was in those days.
Cuellar was great in 1970 - 23-11, 2.38 ERA (151 ERA+), 18 complete games, 5 shutouts, AL Cy Young Award.
Then, curiously, Cuellar dropped off significantly in 1971, but you wouldn't know it at first glance. He actually led the AL in wins in 1971 with 24 (one more than the year before) as well as winning percentage, games started, and complete games.
However, his ERA dipped to 3.48 (105 ERA+), which was right around league average, and he led the AL in earned runs allowed and home runs allowed.
And he still finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.
Catcher Factor: E-asy Answer. Cuellar was pitching to Andy Etchebarren and Elrod Hendricks both years.
14. Bret Saberhagen - 1986 Kansas City Royals; 1990 Kansas City Royals
For the most part we're staying away from guys who were injured in the season following their Cy Young season, but this list wouldn't be complete without Bret SABRhagen, who is one of the all-time great every-other-season guys.
In 1985, SABRhagen went 20-6 with a 2.87 ERA and led the AL in WHIP, fewest walks per nine innings, and K:BB ratio. Bret won the AL Cy Young that year at the age of 21.
The following year, SABRhagen went 7-12 with a 4.15 ERA in 156.0 innings.
In 1987, Bret was Back - 18-10, 3.36 ERA, 15 complete games.
In 1988, he was gone again: 14-16, 3.80 ERA, league leader in hits allowed.
Then, in 1989, he enjoyed his finest year: league leading wins (23-6), ERA (2.16), complete games (12), ERA+ (180), and K:BB ratio (4.49). He won his second AL Cy Young that year.
Then, in 1990, he failed to live up to his Cy Young for the second time: 5-9, 3.27 ERA in 135.0 innings pitched.
13. Tom Glavine - 1999 Atlanta Braves
Glavine won his second NL Cy Young in 1998 by leading the NL in wins with 20 and posting an ERA of 2.47 (ERA+ 168). It was the seventh Cy Young for the Atlanta Braves in eight years, with a Pedro Martinez award snuck in there in 1997.
In 1999, Glavine was not the same pitcher: 14-11, 4.12 ERA (109 ERA+), and a league leading 259 hits allowed. The Braves haven't won a Cy Young since.
Catcher Factor: Yes and no. Javy Lopez caught all of Glavine's games in 1998, but only some in 1999. Then again, Glavine's ERA with Lopez was 5.03 in 1999, and in the threes with everyone else.
12. Mike Flanagan - 1980 Baltimore Orioles
Mike Flanagan won the 1979 AL Cy Young by leading the league in wins (23-9) and shutouts (5) and posting a 3.08 ERA (131 ERA+).
He failed to defend his crown, however, when he went 16-13 with a 4.12 ERA and led the AL in hits allowed.
Catcher Factor: Front end/Back end. Hard to blame Flanagan's 1980 catchers Rick Dempsey and Dan Graham for his drop off when that same duo was in the middle of catching Steve Stone to the 1980 AL Cy Young.
11. Roger Clemens - 1999 New York Yankees
From 1997 to 1998, Roger Clemens had one of the most dominating two-year stretches in baseball history.
In his only two years in Toronto, Clemens won two Triple Crowns, leading the AL in wins, strikeouts, and ERA both years.
He was traded that off-season for David Wells, and in his first year with the Yankees, Clemens looked downright human, going 14-10 with a 4.60 ERA (103 ERA+).
Catcher Factor: Fletch lives. In 1998, Clemens pitched almost exclusively to Darrin Fletcher, who also caught Pedro Martinez's NL Cy Young season the year before, while in 1999 he was pitching to Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada.
If you want me to believe that Posada was a great catcher, I will. But only because you want me to.
10. Sparky Lyle - 1978 New York Yankees
Lyle was everyone's favorite closer in 1977, and he won the AL Cy Young while leading the league in games pitched and games finished.
Lyle's ERA (2.17) and ERA+ (183) were quite good. He also finished the season with 26 saves.
The following year, Lyle finished with only nine saves, a 3.47 ERA (105 ERA+), and had a 1:1 K:BB ratio (33 of each).
Catcher Factor: None. Thurman Munson was his primary both seasons.
9. Dean Chance - 1964 Los Angeles Angels
Chance was two different pitchers in 1964 and 1965.
In 1964, his Cy Young season, he led the AL in wins (20-9), ERA (1.65) and ERA+ (198), in addition to complete games (15) and shutouts (11).
In 1965, he went 15-10 with a 3.15 ERA (ERA+ 108) and walked 15 more batters in 52.2 fewer innnigs.
Catcher Factor: No chance. Buck Rodgers and Tom Satriano were his tandem in both seasons.
8. Mike Marshall - 1975 Los Angeles Dodgers.
Marshall's 1974 season was one of a kind, more so than any other pitching season in the last 40 years.
Marshall went 15-12 with a 2.42 ERA in a league leading (and record setting) 106 games. Marshall finished 83 of those games, had 21 saves, and 208.1 innings pitched.
In 1975, Marshall pitched in "only" 57 games, and struggled to a 9-14 record with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (104 ERA+).
Catcher Factor: Nope. Marshall pitched to Joe Ferguson and Steve Yeager both seasons.
7. Jim Perry - 1971 Minnesota Twins
Jim Perry and his brother Gaylord combined for three Cy Young Awards. Jim won his only one in 1970, when he led the AL in wins with 24 and games started with 40 while posting a 3.04 ERA. It was his second straight 20 win season.
The following year, Perry went 17-17 with a 4.23 ERA (84 ERA+) and led the AL in earned runs and home runs allowed.
Catcher Factor: It's a Catch-31. George Mitterwald was Perry's primary catcher both seasons, catching 31 of his games each year.
6. Mike McCormick - 1968 San Francisco Giants
In 1967, McCormick led the NL in wins with 22. He had a 2.85 ERA, which because of the era was only a 118 ERA+.
Nevertheless, in 1968, while the rest of the National League was enduring the most pitching-heavy season of all time, McCormick actually regressed, going 12-14 with a 3.58 ERA which, again because of the era, was an 83 ERA+.
5. Zack Greinke - 2010 Kansas City Royals
Greinke could very easily win this category by the end of the season.
Greinke was lights out for most of 2009 and finished the season with a 16-8 record, a 2.16 ERA, and 242 strikeouts.
He easily won the AL Cy Young Award despite having only 16 wins, as voters clearly recognized that he was handicapped by playing for the Royals.
In 2010, however, Greinke doesn't have only the Royals to blame. In addition to leading the AL in losses with seven, his WHIP is way up, his home runs and hits allowed are way up, and both his K/9IP and K/BB ratios have fallen off considerably.
Catcher Factor: Huge. Last season, Greinke's catcher was Miguel Olivo, but the Royals chose not to bring Olivo back for 2010. Olivo is now in Colorado and catching all of Ubaldo Jimenez's games.
Don't know if you've heard, but Jimenez is having a season.
4. Randy Jones - 1977 San Diego Padres
Randy Jones had a very interesting four year run: led the NL in losses with 22 in 1974; led the NL in ERA with a 2.24 and ERA+, and won 20 games in 1975; led the NL in wins (22), games started (40), complete games (25) and WHIP, but not ERA or ERA+, and won the Cy Young Award in 1976.
Then, in 1977, Jones went 6-12 with a 4.58 ERA (78 ERA+), and would never have a winning record in a single season ever again.
Catcher Factor: A tenacious kendalling of catcher issues. Jones threw almost exclusively to Fred Kendall in 1976, but then to Bob Davis, Dave Roberts, and Gene Tenace in 1977.
3. Mark Davis - 1990 Kansas City Royals
This is all the proof you should need to warn you off of awarding Cy Young awards to relief pitchers.
In 1989, Mark Davis broke out with the San Diego Padres, leading the NL in games pitched (65) and saves (44) while finishing the season with a 1.85 ERA (193 ERA+).
That off-season Davis signed a free agent contract with the Kansas City Royals and, having nearly quadrupled his previous year's salary, went 2-7 with a 5.11 ERA and six saves.
Catcher Factor: Benny's good, man. Davis was pitching to Benito Santiago for most of 1989, then to Mike Macfarlane and Bob Boone in Kansas City.
2. Steve Carlton - 1973 Philadelphia Phillies
In 1972, Carlton famously won 27 games for a 59-win team, leading the NL in wins, ERA (1.97), starts (41), complete games (30), innings pitched (346.1), strikeouts (310), and ERA+ (182).
What is less well known is that in 1973, Carlton led the NL with 20 losses for a 71-win team.
Curiously, Carlton still led the NL in starts, complete games, innings pitched, and batters faced, but also in earned runs on his way to a 3.90 ERA (97 ERA+).
Catcher Factor: A boon to NL hitters. In 1972, Carlton pitched to John Bateman and Tim McCarver. In 1973, it was Bob Boone exclusively.
1. Steve Stone - 1981 Baltimore Orioles
In 1980, Stone enjoyed a career year as he led the AL with 25 wins-which exceeded his combined wins from the two previous years-and a .781 winning percentage.
Stone also made his first All Star game, and finished ninth in the AL MVP voting while winning the Cy Young.
The following year, Stone went 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA kn 62.2 innings. It would be his last season in baseball.
Catcher Factor: Not an issue; Stone's catcher for both seasons was Rick Dempsey, with Dan Graham providing spot duty both years.
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