2010 MLB Draft: Analyzing Who Could Fall to the New York Mets at Seven

Ash MarshallSenior Analyst IJune 3, 2010

The 2010 MLB draft is just around the corner, so it's time to look at how the New York Mets might approach things when they sit down in Secaucus on Monday.

New York has the seventh overall pick in 2010, after not having a first-round selection at all in '09. This year's draft represents the highest pick the Mets will have had since taking Philip Humber third overall in 2004, and it marks just the seventh time they will have been on the clock for a top 10 choice in the last 20 years.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Arizona all pick ahead of the Mets, so it will be interesting to see who falls to New York at seven.

Bryce Harper is the consensus top pick, so he certainly won't fall past the top two or three teams, and I would be shocked if the Nats didn't take him first. Jameson Taillon also looks like he could go in the top three, while Manny Machado and Drew Pomeranz will also likely be gone by the time the Mets get to make a pick.

Kansas City may have their eye on Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, despite having a good young talent in William Myers already impressing down at the single-A level. The previously mentioned Machado could also make a nice fit with the Royals, and by the speed he has been flying up draft boards, a number four pick isn't out of the question.

The Indians are keeping their cards close to their chests after a string of uninspired first-round picks in the past, although Chris Sale could be one target in a pitcher-heavy draft. Zach Cox might also be of interest to Cleveland, although it might represent a bit of a reach for a team who have their highest draft pick in 18 years.

The Diamondbacks will probably be looking to add an arm with their first pick, but they have also said they will take the best player available, while insisting they won't over-pay in what they consider a relatively weak draft field. Lanky Georgia Tech righty Deck McGuire might be the best choice here.

Assuming the Mets are looking to take the best available player with their first selection, which a Minor League source told me they plan to do, it's likely they will be choosing between Yasmani Grandal, Arkansas third baseman Cox, Texas-Arlington outfielder Michael Choice, or high school utility man Josh Sale.

The Mets have disciplined catcher Josh Towle and raw power-hitting prospect backstop Francisco Pena in the minors already, and it's not like the franchise is short on catchers right now. Still, free-swinging Pena is years away from the majors and Thole could be starting the majority of games 12 months from now, so the defensive specialist Grandal could be a possibility if he is still around.

The 6'0", 215 lb Cox is the best pure third baseman in the draft class, and it would be interesting to see how they then go about developing 18-year-old Jefry Marte, who is already improving down on the farm and is seen as a third baseman with bags of potential because of his power and speed combo.

If power is the name of the game, then look for the Mets to give serious consideration to Choice. He will hit home runs in bunches and has the kind of skill set that could be comparable to that of an Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds in a few years. He seems to be another one of those "three true outcomes" types of hitters that will either walk, strikeout, or go yard. If the Mets are interested in a college bat, Choice could be the best option, especially with teams above them in the draft giving serious consideration to Grandal.

There's a chance that right-handed Georgia Tech junior Deck McGwire would fall to seventh, so he is a possibility as well—especially with the Mets needing guys with rubber arms in the future.

Overall, I think the Mets will either pick Grandal or Choice. They have only drafted three high school kids in the last eight years, and with numerous pitcher selections over the past few years, it is likely that a college hitter will be the way forward.

For a look at the Mets top 10 first-round draft picks of all time, click here.