Congrats go out to Zach Johnson (50:1) for his impressive come from behind victory to outlast both Brian Davis and Bryce Molder at last week’s Crowne Plaza Championship.
My buddies over at www.hardcoresportsradio.com were impressive last week. Mr. Robert Pizzola Jr. needs to be commended on his amazing picks of THREE top five finishes! That netted him almost 41 units! He had Verplank, Overton, and Crane in his six pack. Cam Stewart also had Crane and Overton to net almost 25 units.
This week we are off to Muirfield Village out in Ohio. This is the sixth most difficult track on the PGA Tour and we have an amazing field this week. Since Tiger is playing, gambling values are high. I was stunned to see Tiger at 6:1 odds. I shouldn’t really be that, “stunned” but it’s just so strange to see such a big number beside his name. The way he is playing now, compounded by this injury that was all the rage two weeks ago, yet now has hardly been mentioned, makes for interesting fodder.
I found a great prop bet on www.bodog.com this week. Will Tiger Woods be in the top ten? Yes is -140 No is +110. I am all over selecting, “No” at +110. Tiger is not going to be near the top ten this week, even though he had been fantastic at this track over the years. He’s got too much crap going on in his life right now.
Okay, let’s go to Yahoo fantasy.
I am now in with 2923 points and am getting back on track. I am in the 66th percentile in FOHM and am in the 73rd overall. I am finally getting close to the experts again. I trail Planer by 17 points, Vara by 62 points, Arkush (really?) by 80 points, and am still behind the master Matt Romig by 197 points.
Here’s my lineup for this week:
Start Kenny Perry
Sit Ernie Els
Start KJ Choi and Dustin Johnson
Sit Robert Allenby and Bo Van Pelt
Start Matt Kuchar
Sit Mike Weir
Before we hit the six pack, I have a TON of honorable mentions this week: Choi 25:1, Ogilvy 28:1, Watney 40:1, Allenby 40:1, Cink 40:1, D. Johnson 40:1, Jacobsen 66:1, Petterson 80:1, Haas, 80:1, and Weir 80:1.
So far in 2010 Ernie Els has made 10 out of 11 cuts. He has eight top 25 finishes, of which five have been in the top 10, and two were victories. Certainly Els must be considered for player of the year at this point.
At Jack’s Place, Ernie has been rock solid. In 16 attempts he has only missed one cut. He has 10 top 25 finishes here over the years, six of those being top ten finishes. Did I mention he won the event in 2004?
I have no idea how anyone could pass up on Ernie this week. He is coming into the week with two top 10 finishes in his last five efforts, one of those being his victory at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. I guess if he can win at Arnie’s place, then Jack’s place would only be the next logical progression for him.
Check out some of Ernie’s impressive stats:
Second in Scoring Average at 69.59 strokes, first in Fed Ex Cup points with 1541 and first in earnings at almost $3.5 million, and ninth in Par Breakers at 23.25 percent.
No matter how you slice it, I could not avoid Ernie Els this week at 22:1 odds. Truth be told, I was stunned to see him higher than 20:1 this week.
Matt Kuchar has been firing on all cylinders in 2010, and fortunately I think everything is lining up perfectly for him to secure a victory this week. Kuchar has only missed three cuts on the year, one of which has occurred in his last five events. Three of the other finishes were good top 25s and his Crowne Plaza tie for 56th was an event to be forgotten, and should not be a factor.
Kuchar has nine top 25 success stories so far this year, with four being in the top 10. He has finished runner up once this year and has come in third two times.
Now for the great news… Kuchar has steadily gotten better here at Jack’s Place and has only missed the cut once in five tries. The last three years have seen him finish 13th, 10th, and fifth.
Look at some of Kuchar keys to success:
He ranks fourth in the All Around category, is 11th in Scoring Average at 70.19 strokes per round, ranks 12th in Ball Striking and also is fourth in Scrambling at 67.94 percent.
I love that Kuchar has the skills to recover, should he not always find the fairway. Matt is my favorite pick this week, even though I have him ranked at number two. Take a shot with him this week, he is 33:1 to win it all.
I am going back to the well with 2009 mainstay Kenny Perry. He has not been bad this year by any stretch, he just hasn’t been as FANTASTIC as he was last year. I mean, he IS still the number 26 golfer in the world right?
Perry has only missed one cut this year and has four top 25 events, with one top 10. Three of those four top 25 events have coincidentally been his last three efforts. Guess who’s warming up?
He happens to be getting warm just at the right time. Perry has a phenomenal track record here at Muirfield Village. He has only missed the cut here once in 19 years! He has 12 top 25 finishes, half of those being in the top 10, and guess what? Half of his top 10s were victories! That’s right, Kenny Perry has won three times here at Jack’s Place.
Check out these digits:
Perry is second in Total Driving on tour, ranks 16th in the All Around category and is the sixth best ball striker on tour right now.
I love picking Kenny Perry when the time is right. The time is right folks, take him at 33:1 odds this week.
I don’t think I have picked Bo Van Pelt as many times in my life, as I have in 2010. He really is having a career year, and I think he is very capable of getting his second victory of 2010 with the way he is playing.
BVP has made 12 of 15 cuts this year and in those cuts made he has secured seven top 25 placements. Four of those have been in the top 10. By the way, those four top 10s have all come in his last five events! Can you say, “On FIRE?”
Van Pelt has managed to squeeze out a tie for third here before, and his other five performances have been respectable, minus the two cuts. I think he finds a nice comfort zone here in Ohio this week.
Let’s go inside BVP’s numbers:
He is the number one Ball Striker on tour, has made the most birdies on tour this year with 225, is fifth in Total Driving and is seventh in Par Breakers at 23.36 percent.
Trust me, you need to go to http://pgatour.com and check out his stats page, it’s truly amazing.
Linus and Lucy’s long lost cousin has made his way onto the six pack once again. He is chock full of value at 40:1 odds of victory.
You guys know the drill, Rickie Fowler stays in the six pack until he wins. His first trip to Jack’s Place will hopefully be a memorable one.
Fowler has either been terrific or has missed the cut in his last five tries. I am confident this week, he will show up and deliver a great performance, and he certainly will deliver some fantastic outfits.
All of Rickie’s top 25 finishes have been in the top 10, including a tie for second at The Phoenix Open.
Here is what has helped Fowler succeed so far this year:
He is 16th in Driving Distance at just over 293 yards, 15th in Total Driving and he is the 15th best Ball Striker on the PGA Tour.
I love the high value with Fowler this week. Make sure you also bet him to place in the top five! Fowler is 80:1 odds this week.
My long shot this week is another young gunner who will either miss the cut, or be close to winning. Matt Jones has missed six cuts this year, however in the nine events he has made the cut in, he has earned six top 25 finishes. He also has four top 10 finishes, his best being a tie for seventh at Quail Hollow.
This SunDevil from down under has got some serious game and has been flying way under the radar this year. Four of his last five efforts have yielded top 25 finishes, and two of those were in the top 10. This kid is carrying some serious momentum into this event.
Matt Jones is no stat attacker, but he has a few interesting numbers:
He is seventh in Par Five Performance at -72 on the year, ranks 22nd in the All Around category and is 24th in Driving Distance at almost 292 yards.
I’d really be dancing in the streets if this kid comes in as a winner this week as he is a whopping 100/1 odds of winning.
Good luck this week and hit ‘em straight.