All four of these teams will probably have to overpay to lure free agents, and I don't see any of the big-name free agents signing with them. Chris Bosh will probably stay in Toronto, but he will definitely test the market to see if it's worth taking less money to go somewhere he feels he has a better chance of winning.
What makes the Clippers more attractive than all of those teams is that the Clippers have a nucleus of proven veterans and promising rookies, while the rest of those teams will have to renounce so many players to be able to make big-money offers that they will end up with two or three veterans, three or four guys playing on rookie contracts, and a bunch of cast-offs.
The Knicks are the biggest wild card in all of this. They currently don't have the cap space—but it's no secret that they are trying to create some, and David Stern would love for the team in the league's biggest media market to be competitive.
Before the Clippers traded for Marcus Camby, they offered to take Zach Randolph from the Knicks for Brevin Knight and a future second-round pick—and the Knicks turned it down. The Knicks' new GM, Donnie Walsh, is convinced that under Mike D'Antoni, Randolph's trade value will only increase.
Walsh may have overestimated Randolph's value and might rue the day he said no to the Clippers. What Walsh doesn't realize is that the market for Randolph is already limited. With half of the teams in the NBA trying to clear cap space for 2010, not a lot of teams will be willing to acquire a contract that pays Randolph $17 million per season beyond that.
Now Walsh will have to either hope Jamal Crawford opts out of his contract next year, or that he can convince someone to take Quentin Richardson, Jared Jeffries, or Eddy Curry off his hands.
I'm going to call the fourth list, "The Realists". This list is made up of teams that know they are probably not going to be in play for big-name free agents, so they're going to use trades as their means of getting better.
Here's the list:
- Indiana Pacers
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Sacramento Kings
The Pacers have already made a number of moves this summer to shake things up. They've acquired seven new players and don't appear to be done yet. They'll have a little bit of cap space for next season, but will have contract extensions due to Danny Granger and Jarrett Jack. Look for the Pacers to try and move Jack rather than lock him up now that they've got TJ Ford.
Look for them to move Jack at the deadline or next summer after the contracts of Rasho Nesterovic and Marquis Daniels expire.
The Bucks made a big move this offseason by acquiring Richard Jefferson. They immediately put the Michael Redd trade rumors to rest. They also hired a new coach, and gave reasonable contracts to Tyronn Lue and Malik Allen.
The problem with the Bucks is that they have given the worst contracts to their own free agents of any team in the NBA. They will have no cap space until 2012, so they may have no choice but to move Redd or Jefferson—because nobody will trade for the awful contracts given to Andrew Bogut, Maurice Williams, or Dan Gadzuric.
The Kings have one of the NBA's best general managers in Geoff Petrie. He doesn't make a lot of trades—but when he does, he usually gets the better end. He got Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond, and traded Peja Stojakovic for Ron Artest. He traded an aging Mike Bibby for expiring contracts.
He will probably use Artest as trade bait again to help rid the Kings of Kenny Thomas' contract. Next summer, he'll have the expiring contracts of Thomas, Brad Miller and Shareef Abdur-Rahim to improve the team.
The fifth and final group I'm going to call "The Decapitated Chickens," because I have no idea what they are doing and they seem to be making decisions like chickens with their heads cut off:
- Golden State Warriors
- Denver Nuggets
- Charlotte Bobcats
- Chicago Bulls
- Atlanta Hawks
The Warriors fell into this group when Baron Davis decided to join the Clippers. They used the money that was earmarked for Davis and used it to bring in Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf—and they still have to re-sign restricted free agents, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins.
The problem with the Warriors is that they have no identity. They don't know if they're a veteran team with Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and Al Harrington or a rebuilding team with Ellis, Biedrins, Brandan Wrightm and Marco Bellinelli.
Regardless, the Warriors do not look like a playoff team. Instead they look like a team that play each of their players, with the exception of Jackson, out of position. I get that the Warriors want to play up-tempo—but no team has proven that Nellie-ball will get you anywhere if the team doesn't play defense.
The Warriors might have money to spend over the next two seasons, but it still seems as if this team lost whatever progress they made after the trade with the Pacers in 2007.
The Bulls fell into this group as a result of a happy accident. When they won the draft lottery, they were forced to pick a player that plays one of the only positions where the team was set.
As a result, the team is still without the low-post scoring threat they have been searching for since they traded Eddy Curry to the Knicks. The roster is stacked with point guards and small forwards, and they've yet to negotiate contract extensions for Luol Deng or Ben Gordon. They are in great shape for 2010—but that's because they only have Kirk Hinrich and Derrick Rose under contract.
If the Bulls don't figure out who the nucleus of the team is, then they might get stuck having to keep everybody. By not negotiating with Deng or Gordon, they're running the risk of both guys leaving as unrestricted free agents next year and having nothing to show for it.
The Bobcats finally hired a coach with a pedigree—but we still don't know what they're doing. They drafted DJ Augustin, even though they had Raymond Felton.
They have two players, Sean May and Adam Morrison, who are coming back from serious injuries.
They have yet to negotiate an extension with Emeka Okafor—and now there are rumors that they are trying to trade Gerald Wallace, one year after giving him an extension.
Needless to say, the honeymoon is over for this expansion franchise. It might be time for them to consider trading some of the younger guys for veterans instead of trading Wallace—but trying to predict what the Bobcats are going to do is like trying to predict the weather.
The Hawks are on this list because they have killed whatever momentum they gained by taking the eventual world champs further than the Lakers did. While they once looked like a team on the rise, the Hawks now look they are moving backwards.
Josh Smith wants to be signed and traded or have the head coach replaced, Josh Childress is threatening to play in Greece, and the ownership situation is still unresolved. Some franchises are just cursed.
Then there are the Nuggets. The poor, poor Nuggets. Did anybody think that at the time that the Sixers would end up getting the better end of the Iverson trade?
Less than two years after the trade, the Nuggets have lost their two best defensive players for nothing and still don't have an adequate point guard to replace Andre Miller. The Mavericks and Knicks are also in horrible financial shape—but at least one should make the playoffs while the other can see light at the end of the tunnel.
The Nuggets will not make the playoffs next year. If they insist they aren't going to trade Carmelo Anthony, then look for them to try and move Allen Iverson before the trade deadline. They would prefer to move Nene or Kenyon Martin—but if anybody wanted either of those guys, Denver wouldn't have traded Marcus Camby.
The good news for the Nuggets is that they should be able to keep JR Smith, since nobody else seems interested in signing him to an offer sheet. They also don't have to worry about losing Carmelo in 2010 because he's signed until 2011. By that point, they'll have some cap space—but don't look for them to be any good until then.
When your billionaire owner is married to a Wal-Mart heir and is still afraid of the luxury tax, you should know your team is in trouble.
There is one team that didn't make any of these lists, and that team is the Houston Rockets. I still don't know what to make of this team, but I can't put them in the same class with any of the other teams.
The problem with the Rockets is that their fans seem to be the only people around the NBA who think that Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are franchise players.
Additionally, the roster is unbalanced, with a glut of point guards and very little depth up front. Yet they chose to go after Brent Barry, while taking their time in re-signing Carl Landry.
To make matters worse, they have to watch the Olympics with their fingers crossed, hoping that Yao doesn't suffer a setback or that Luis Scola doesn't choke on his hair.
Where this team ends up will be dependent upon whether they decide to extend McGrady in two years, let him walk, or trade him before then. Should they choose to re-sign him, they'll have very little wiggle room to improve the roster if he and Yao are making upwards of $40 million between them.
Even with the addition of Donte Green and Brent Barry, the Rockets are still not better than the Lakers, Hornets, Jazz, or Spurs, and could finish below the Blazers and/or the Suns in the Western Conference Playoffs.
I'm still extremely impressed by the winning streak they accomplished last year. But after winning 22 in a row, the Rockets finished the season 9-7, then lost to the Jazz in six games.
The Rockets are fooling themselves if they think they are closer to the team that won 22 in a row than they are to the team that lost half of their last 22 games.
So there you have it. All it took was 5,000 words to sum up the entire NBA and the current status of the league's 30 teams.
If you're not happy with what you read, then I need only point you to the Lakers and Celtics. One team missed the playoffs and the other was a seventh-seed that got bounced from the playoffs in five games. A year later, and both teams were in the NBA Finals. Sometimes all it takes is a disgruntled player to light a fire under a general manager.
Take a good look at the NBA right now. Because chances are half the league could playing somewhere else in two years. You may want to hold off on buying that jersey you've had your eye on.
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