The last few years have shown that the Colts are willing to draft the best player available (whether they need him or not).
Last year the Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round- then rode RB Joseph Addai all the way to the Super Bowl. This year they picked DE Jerry Hughes (regarded as the best pure pass rusher in the draft) with the 31st overall pick- even though they already have the best DE tandem in the league and nearly every mock draft on the web had them picking an offensive lineman (OT Rodger Saffold, OT Charles Brown, and OG/C Maurkice Pouncey).
Experts are already touting that 2011 will be the next big quarterback class, which could work out really well for the Colts.
In the old days top signal callers were almost always drafted fairly high, but over the last few years talented quarterbacks have slid in the draft.
In 2005 Aaron Rodgers was expected to be a top ten pick, but he slid all the way to 24 to the Green Bay Packers (even though Brett Favre was still at the top of his game). This year Jimmy Clausen (arguably the most pro ready quarterback to come out in years) lasted all the way to the middle of the second round (the Panthers tried to trade up to get him, but he landed in their lap at pick 48).
One of the reasons that the 2011 quarterbacks could slip is because some of the "bad" teams (who'll be picking at the top of the first round) already have quarterbacks.
Last year the Lions drafted QB Mathew Stafford #1 overall. This year the Rams snatched up QB Sam Bradford. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted Josh Freeman in 2009 and the Denver Broncos are collecting quarterbacks.
Then there are the good teams. Not only do most of them already have quarterbacks, but these teams are looking for guys that can help them win right now.
Teams like the Texans, Dolphins, Eagles, Chargers, Titans, Jets, and Falcons already have their quarterback for the future.
Other teams like the Cardinals, 49ers, and Chiefs have so much invested in their quarterbacks that they're better off using their top picks on support players that give them a chance to win right now. Even the Seahawks could pass on a quarterback if J.P. Lossman can translate his UFL success into the NFL.
At any rate here are the four guys that are expected to be the top quarterbacks in the 2011 draft. It's a fair assumption that at least one of these guys will slip to the bottom of the first round.